Comments by "0x777" (@0x777) on "BBC News"
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Putin went into this war with a few wrong assumptions and expectations that turned out to be catastrophic.
First, he assumed that he could blindside Ukraine like 2014 when he captured Crimea. This was supposed to be Crimea 2.0. Take the capital, waltz into the eastern regions and dictate the conditions before anyone could react. The date for the press conference was even set. The invasion started Thursday, there was a press conference set for Tuesday ... that never happened. What he did not expect was a surprisingly tough and well prepared defense that pretty much mopped the floor with his assault on the capital and stalled his advance in the East for days and weeks. The Russian troops were not prepared for that. They had supplies for a week and there wasn't any logistics even prepared. The whole show should've been over in 5 days.
Second, he did not expect the West to react like this. He absolutely thought that again the West would just stand by and shrug. That not only there would be sanctions up the ass but also as much support and supply for Ukraine, which amounts to pretty much "as much as you can give without actually joining the battle", that was certainly not what he'd have expected.
And finally, he did not know that the level of corruption and wasting in the Russian army was that bad. Even during the first weeks we already saw that the equipment is in abysmal repair, that many of the more sophisticated and delicate weapon systems simply don't work due to a lack of maintenance, that corruption and outright theft caused critical parts to fail or simply go "missing", and that the general state of the troop is severely lacking, from morale to equipment to training to even the most fundamental necessities for a fighting troop.
The combination of that is what we witness here.
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@Writeous0ne So Russia planned to tank its economy by buying Rubles to keep the rates from crashing through the floor? Weird strategy... but then again, I've seen the war, apparently their financial strategies are as bonkers as their military ones.
Also, Europe's gas problems are not as severe as you may think. The problem right now is less that there ain't gas, the problem is getting it in. Off the coast of Spain a fleet of tankers with liquid gas is idling about, what Europe lacks right now is enough places to pump it. That's going to be resolved in about 3-4 months when the harbors are retrofitted. Yes, liquid gas sure is more expensive than simply pumping it through pipes, but at the current price tag, it's quite interesting.
Europe also spent a good deal of money to wane itself off gas. You currently pretty much get half the price of a new heating system paid for if you switch away from gas, which is what a lot of people did, we're now at the point where the price of gas is getting so low that a lot of people are cursing that they switched to wood because gas would actually now be cheaper to heat with... weird how this went.
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