Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "BBC News"
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Ukraine has been mobilizing since February 24, and the number of the Ukrainian army is growing every day, while Russia is fighting with a limited contingent of contract volunteers. Regardless of the losses of the Russian and Ukrainian sides, there is such a situation that Ukraine has accumulated a serious numerical advantage, and as a result, the Russian offensive in the Donbas has stopped and for 3 months now there have been battles for Bakhmut, Soledar and Disputed. And the Ukrainian army is successfully advancing in the Kherson region, and recently they very quickly liberated the Kharkiv region. Therefore, Putin, in the seventh month of the war, decided to begin mobilizing reservists in order to at least equalize the number of the two warring armies. Because when the Ukrainian army has a numerical advantage of one and a half or two times over the Russian one, military actions are not in favor of Russia. In general, it would be better if the military operations on February 24 did not even begin
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@kingsleykester8167 Let's discuss the "military defeat of Russia in Ukraine." First of all, what do you mean by military defeat? - During the four months of the war, Russia established control over quite extensive territories of Ukraine. Do not forget that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, and Russia essentially controls territories in 30% of Italy and 25% of Germany. Ukraine is not capable of conducting effective counter-offensives. Or maybe you mean by the defeat of Russia great losses? Well, excuse me - the attacking side, other things being equal, always bears greater losses than the defending side, especially in the 21st century. Perhaps if the American first army in the World had invaded Ukraine in the same way, maybe they would have been even more destroyed than the Russian second army of the World. The Russians invaded Ukraine without a numerical advantage, with an equal number of troops, although military science requires a preponderance, other things being equal, for a successful offensive. Do not forget that war has not been declared, and there is no mobilization in Russia.
So by the third month of the war, Ukrainians had gained a numerical advantage over the grouping of Russian troops. So it is not worth judging the training and competence of the Russian troops by what results they have achieved. Firstly, if Russian conscripts are fighting in Ukraine, then in very small numbers and somewhere in the rear, but there are no conscripts on the front line. Ukrainian conscripts, untrained and poorly equipped, are fighting against the Russian contract army, although the Russian contract army, admittedly, is worse than the Ukrainian contract army. The Russians have much more artillery, aircraft and equipment.
Thus, we have a situation that if we take the level of training of Ukrainian contract soldiers for 100, then Russian contract soldiers have a level of training of 75, and Ukrainian conscripts at 40. And they are fighting each other with equal numbers, although the Russians have a preponderance in technology. For 2 months, the front line has hardly changed, so far Russia has been holding the profits of the first month of the war.
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I'm from Russia, and I can explain. Firstly, there is no war legally, which means that Russia's military capabilities are limited. Russian conscripts are not fighting in Ukraine. There was a scandalous case in March when it turned out that some general used 600 conscripts in the rear. He was fired and convicted for it. There are no conscripts in Ukraine, there are only contract soldiers. At the same time, war has not been declared, and Russian contractors are able to refuse a contract and service in Ukraine. However, if you are already in Ukraine, your situation is sad. Russian Russian soldiers in Ukraine were deceived by the state - the war has not been declared and formally there are no Russians in Ukraine, they are not paid the promised money, and they are also refused to be sent home, although all Russian soldiers in Ukraine signed a contract for 90 days. They were deceived, they were thrown for money, the state uses them as cannon fodder. But in general, Russia is fighting without mobilization and only by contractors, while Ukraine is conducting a total mobilization of the population. The result is sad for Russia
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Russia don't have reasons to invade any other countries. Russia invaded Ukraine, because Ukraine after the democratic revolution of 2014 wanted to join NATO, and Russia counts NATO as a millitary threat . Also, Putin wants to supress democratic pro-Western revolution and return Ukraine into its sphere of influence . For the same reasons Russia have invaded Georgia in 2008. And if we would look at the map, we would see that Russia didn't fully occupied Georgia in 2008 . That means, that Putin's target isn't expansion and conquest. If Putin wanted the conquest and expansion, Georgia was occupied by Russia fully in 2008, but Russia didn't fully occupied the Georgia - only some northern parts. This is the evidence, that Russia isn't targeting expanstion, but Russia is targeting to not allow neighbouring countries to join NATO, because Russia counts NATO as a threat .
The Russian millitary operation in Ukraine is something like the US operations against Iraq - US were concerned of Iraq's nuclear programm, and Russia is concerned of NATO spreading to the East and American nukes in Poland. Also, the reasons of Russian invasion of Ukraine are familliar to reasons of US sanctions against Cuba - Russia is afraid of NATO, and US were afraid of Soviet rockets on Cuba. Russian actions at now a similliar to US and UK actions against Iran - in 1953 Iran's government started to nationalize British-owned oil productions. As an answer UK sponsored the revolutionaries in Iran to overthrew the government and revolution had a success - Western property was denationalized and returned to owners. Iran after the pro-Western revolution was a Western sphere of influence. But later, in 1979 the religious revolution had happened in Iran, and new Iranian government started anti-Western politics, like natinalization of oil productions. United States started to sanctione and seriously isolate Iran for no reason, and at now isolated Iran is a very poor country. But what Iran did against the US? Just what? Iran after the 1953 was Western oil colony, and after 1979 Iran nationalized its oil productions, and US are sanctioning Iran because they want to supress it. And America is dreaming about the return of Iran into their sphere of influence, like Russia (Putin) is dreaming about the return of Ukraine.
And this is hypocritical for US to blame and call Russia as an agressor, because America is doing the same things as Russia. Russia is agressor, and peaceful countries deserved the right to blame Russia. But not America, because America invaded Iraq and isolated Cuba and Iran for the same reasons, for which Russia invaded Ukraine. And this is very hypocritical, that America didn't faced the sanctions and isolation, while Russia faced sanctions and isolation for war. Double standarts and hypocrisy.
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@jacksonteller1337 How do you know about the combat capability of the Russian army in comparison with the Ukrainian one? Russian Russian is my language, and I can watch videos in Russian. And I saw a YouTube video posted by Ukrainian conscript soldiers, where they complained about the poor level of training, poor supplies. Ukrainian soldiers said they were being thrown with anti-personnel grenades against Russian tanks, and that Russia had total air superiority and artillery. Equipped, as can be seen from the video, they were very poorly. Western propaganda for some reason likes to flaunt the bad aspects of the Russian army, but for some reason the bad aspects of the Ukrainian army are silent. Although Ukraine is economically much poorer than Russia, Ukraine has lower wages than in Russia, Ukraine has a lower standard of living, and Ukraine has lower labor efficiency than in Russia. Ukraine is a poor backward country, one of the poorest countries in Europe, where people live worse than in Russia. It's silly to think that a country with an average salary of $230 has a really good army. Maybe Ukraine has some elite troops of the contract army, but Ukraine's economy is much worse than Russia's, which means that the supply of troops with ammunition and equipment in Ukraine should be worse in theory. Ukrainian contractors may be better than Russian contractors and conscripts, but Ukrainian conscripts have the same zero combat capability as Russian conscripts. As for military equipment, Ukraine's equipment is even older than Russia's, and Russia has modern equipment, in no way inferior to the American counterparts of the 2010s. The same Ka-52 helicopter. The T-72-b3 tank, which entered service with the Russian army in 2016, and 2,000 units have been created over the past 6 years. Western propaganda, of course, draws delusional illusions for you about an untrained, terrible and inefficient Russian army, and an allegedly professional and trained Ukrainian army, but the truth is that Ukraine is a corrupt, impoverished state where salaries are lower than in Russia.
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@dmitry9680 Russia didn't started the war in the Donbass - war in the Donbass started when the Russian protestors in the East of Ukraine (region, by 40-50% populated by Russians) had captured the governmental buildings and proclaimed their independence on 6th of april 2014. Ukraine sent army to supress the DPR and LPR, and fighting had started. Russian army entered the East of Ukraine only later, after nearly a 5 MONTHS of fighting, during the battle of Ilovaysk in august of 2014. Please, watch map video of Emperror Tigerstar about the Donbass war. The Russian separatists rebelled against Kyiv government in the april of 2014, and in the april of 2014 the war, the fighting started. Ukrainian government had announced about the Russian army in the Donbass only in august 2014. 6th April - May - June - July - August Russian army entered the East of Ukraine, when fighting already was happening for nearly 5 months. In first 5 months rebels were losing, but when the Russian army entered the East of Ukraine, Ukrainians started to lose and the frontline started to drive on the West with numerous maneouveres and encerclements. Ukrainian army was defeated by Russian forces in the battle of Ilovaysk. (Russian forces - according to Ukrainian side, Ukrainians didn't announced evidences about the Russian forces in this battle, but let's believe to Ukrainian side without evidences). After the defeat in Ilovaysk the negotiations had started, and Russia attempted to end the war. Russia offered the Minsk agreements to Ukraine - "East of Ukraine - the region, that populated by Russians, and these Russians had rebelled, starting the bloody war. So, let's end the war by giving them autonomy?". Ukraine had all power to agree with Russia and end this war already in 2014, but Ukrainian nationalism didn't allowed Ukraine to accept Russian peace proposal in 2014, and Ukraine rejected Russian peace proposal, Ukraine didn't accepted Minsk agreements, and continued the war. And at now we know what is happening - Russians simply became angry about Ukrainians and started a "crusade against nationalistic government in Kyiv". All slogans of Russian propaganda are talking about "The 8 years of war in the Donbass". For Putin suppourters this war is something like revenge, and this is one of the reasons, why Putin started the war - Putin is dictator, and he is concerned about his popularity, so he started the war, about which 1/3 part of Russians was waiting for 8 years. And at now Putin's popularity is growing.
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Mistiry Soviet Union had labor camps, like in United States, not concentration. In United States were gulags too. And in soviet gulags deathes were caused because of the war, germans occupied fertile land, and there was not enough food for the prisoners. Total died 400 000 men, not 2 million. Prisioners in labor camps had wages, rooms, free food and clothes. This is not concentration camps, this is labor camps, like in America. United States had the same thing.
The famine was caused by the fact that American companies stopped supplying grain to the USSR, on which the USSR then depended, as their agriculture was reduced to attract labor from agriculture to industrialization. The USSR reduced its agriculture to build metallurgy, oil rigs and mechanical engineering, hoping that grain would be sourced from the United States, but a drought swept around the world and American companies stopped supplying grain to the USSR. That's why there was hunger.
In "great purge" were shoten 700 000 people, not 1 700 000. The death penalty was also in America. At least half of those shot deserved their punishment, they were murderers, rapists, marauders. There were no executions for political reasons. In the USSR, there was no article that would condemn a person for anti-government statements. The problem is different, dishonest policemen fabricated cases against innocent people in order to receive bonuses and shoulder straps for being solved. And the state fought against the arbitrariness of the police, mass checks were carried out in the NKVD, and amnesties accounted for 15% of cases
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Putin believed in his own propaganda about the alleged Bandera in Ukraine, and thinking that the Ukrainian people were suppressed by their state, Putin expected to take Ukraine in 3 days. This is evidenced by the words of Russian propaganda (I live in Russia), as well as the situation at the front now. Russian military command apparently didn't prepared sufficient supplies, and the Russian troops don't have any numerical superiority over the Ukrainian army, although the attacking side suffers greater losses than the defending side. At the same time, Ukrainians have high morale, and Russians are demoralized and don't want to fight with the fraternal people. The Russian army is advancing without normal supplies and doesn't actually establish control over the territory, moving with the help of convoys vulnerable to ambushes on the roads. And after 2 weeks, the Russian army got bogged down, having just reached Ukrainian cities and achieved average success - Kherson and Melitopol were occupied, Mariupol and Chernihiv were taken in encirclements. There is no supply in the encirclements. And the Ukrainian troops in the encirclements are doomed.
Russia need to reinforce the Ukrainian theather and form the frontline, stopping the attack by roads and establishing control over the territories. Russians need to build supply infastructure. When Russians doing this, Ukrainians would have opportunity to mobilize manpower and counterattack. Russia would win this war, but there would be high casualities from both sides and the war would last for a long time. Of course, the real fighting capability of a Russian army is much and much higher, Russians showed themselves not well in Ukraine only because of small numbers, low motivation of Russian soldiers to fight against brother people, and poor supplies, because Russian command wanted to take Ukraine in 3 days.
There is possibility that Russia would accept a peace threaty, like in 2008 - when Russia didn't fully conquerred Georgia and peace threaty was made. The only difference, is that Russian army in 2008 wasn't defeated.
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@kingsleykester8167 Russia does not use 100% of its army - there is no mobilization in the country, at least 50% of Russian troops are not in Ukraine. Before the war, Russia had a land army of 360 thousand soldiers. Ukraine has 160 thousand. Against 160 thousand Ukrainian soldiers, Russia used about 150 thousand of its soldiers. At the same time, in Russia, the army remained at the pre-war level, since the war has not been formally declared and there is no mobilization, and in Ukraine everyone is put under arms. Two months later, the Ukrainians had a serious numerical advantage, and the Russian army got bogged down. At the same time, Russia almost does not use conscripts, and fights only with contract soldiers, while Ukraine uses untrained cannon fodder against Russia, which has total superiority in artillery and aviation. Russian Russian contractors, on the other hand, have anti-tank weapons and drones, and Russian contractors are not as good as the Ukrainian ones, and in an equal battle, Ukrainian contractors defeat the Russians. Now neither side can achieve success anymore
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