Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "BBC News"
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Putin believed in his own propaganda about the alleged Bandera in Ukraine, and thinking that the Ukrainian people were suppressed by their state, Putin expected to take Ukraine in 3 days. This is evidenced by the words of Russian propaganda (I live in Russia), as well as the situation at the front now. Russian military command apparently didn't prepared sufficient supplies, and the Russian troops don't have any numerical superiority over the Ukrainian army, although the attacking side suffers greater losses than the defending side. At the same time, Ukrainians have high morale, and Russians are demoralized and don't want to fight with the fraternal people. The Russian army is advancing without normal supplies and doesn't actually establish control over the territory, moving with the help of convoys vulnerable to ambushes on the roads. And after 2 weeks, the Russian army got bogged down, having just reached Ukrainian cities and achieved average success - Kherson and Melitopol were occupied, Mariupol and Chernihiv were taken in encirclements. There is no supply in the encirclements. And the Ukrainian troops in the encirclements are doomed.
Russia need to reinforce the Ukrainian theather and form the frontline, stopping the attack by roads and establishing control over the territories. Russians need to build supply infastructure. When Russians doing this, Ukrainians would have opportunity to mobilize manpower and counterattack. Russia would win this war, but there would be high casualities from both sides and the war would last for a long time. Of course, the real fighting capability of a Russian army is much and much higher, Russians showed themselves not well in Ukraine only because of small numbers, low motivation of Russian soldiers to fight against brother people, and poor supplies, because Russian command wanted to take Ukraine in 3 days.
There is possibility that Russia would accept a peace threaty, like in 2008 - when Russia didn't fully conquerred Georgia and peace threaty was made. The only difference, is that Russian army in 2008 wasn't defeated.
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Russia don't have reasons to invade any other countries. Russia invaded Ukraine, because Ukraine after the democratic revolution of 2014 wanted to join NATO, and Russia counts NATO as a millitary threat . Also, Putin wants to supress democratic pro-Western revolution and return Ukraine into its sphere of influence . For the same reasons Russia have invaded Georgia in 2008. And if we would look at the map, we would see that Russia didn't fully occupied Georgia in 2008 . That means, that Putin's target isn't expansion and conquest. If Putin wanted the conquest and expansion, Georgia was occupied by Russia fully in 2008, but Russia didn't fully occupied the Georgia - only some northern parts. This is the evidence, that Russia isn't targeting expanstion, but Russia is targeting to not allow neighbouring countries to join NATO, because Russia counts NATO as a threat .
The Russian millitary operation in Ukraine is something like the US operations against Iraq - US were concerned of Iraq's nuclear programm, and Russia is concerned of NATO spreading to the East and American nukes in Poland. Also, the reasons of Russian invasion of Ukraine are familliar to reasons of US sanctions against Cuba - Russia is afraid of NATO, and US were afraid of Soviet rockets on Cuba. Russian actions at now a similliar to US and UK actions against Iran - in 1953 Iran's government started to nationalize British-owned oil productions. As an answer UK sponsored the revolutionaries in Iran to overthrew the government and revolution had a success - Western property was denationalized and returned to owners. Iran after the pro-Western revolution was a Western sphere of influence. But later, in 1979 the religious revolution had happened in Iran, and new Iranian government started anti-Western politics, like natinalization of oil productions. United States started to sanctione and seriously isolate Iran for no reason, and at now isolated Iran is a very poor country. But what Iran did against the US? Just what? Iran after the 1953 was Western oil colony, and after 1979 Iran nationalized its oil productions, and US are sanctioning Iran because they want to supress it. And America is dreaming about the return of Iran into their sphere of influence, like Russia (Putin) is dreaming about the return of Ukraine.
And this is hypocritical for US to blame and call Russia as an agressor, because America is doing the same things as Russia. Russia is agressor, and peaceful countries deserved the right to blame Russia. But not America, because America invaded Iraq and isolated Cuba and Iran for the same reasons, for which Russia invaded Ukraine. And this is very hypocritical, that America didn't faced the sanctions and isolation, while Russia faced sanctions and isolation for war. Double standarts and hypocrisy.
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@emphasizeflies7382 I would copy my analysis.
Russians had invaded Ukraine without numerical superiority, while Ukraine is the largest land millitary in Europe after Russia. Ukraine have far more tanks, than Germany, Poland, Britain or France. If the quality of troops is equal, according to the law of millitary science attacking side is suffering more casualities.
The major 2 reasons, why Russian invasion had failed in first few weeks:
1) Joung Russian soldiers aren't motivated to fight against brother Slavic people, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, probably some Russian soldiers have relarives in Ukraine (Millitary crimes probably were commited by soldiers of Asian and Islamic nationalities or by Russian police forces, not by Russian troops of Slavic nationality, I saw the video
from Ukrainian-Russian historian and opinin-leader Mark Solonin about this). Russian soldiers are mentally and morally supressed, they don't want to fight against brother Slavic people. Opposite - Ukrainians have moral boom, they are fighting for their homeland. Also, civillian deaths would demoralize Russians and rise the morale of Ukrainians.
2) Russian command probably believed in its own propaganda, and commanders in Kremlin were thinking, that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days without resistance, and Russian troops would be met with flowers. And Russian command simply didn't prepared for a war - Russians didn't planned, that they would face the resistance, they thought that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days, and this is why Russians at now have poor logistics and preparation. Russians were invading Ukraine by moving in columns, very dangerous for ambushes.
Russia have a population of 146 million people, while Ukraine have the population of 40 million. The life standarts, economy and corruption in Russia and Ukraine are in the same level, but Ukrainians probably worked on corruption in their army, and also Ukrainian army was trained by Western specialists. Also, Ukrainians have modern Western AT weapons and drones.
After 3 weeks Russians had stopped their invasion, and at now they are reinforcing and forming the frontline, they made a pause. Russians are dasapointed of their first plan, and they refused it, retreated from Kyiv to regroup and resupply in the Donbass region.
I think that casualities ratio between Russia and Ukraine is ~2 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.
After 2 months of war Russians still didn't started mobilization, while Ukrainian army is growing. Probably Ukraine already have numerical superiority over Russia in the frontline.
I think that war would end up to V day on 9th of May.
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