Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "Balkan Mapper"
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Russia is not capable to fight a longterm war with entire NATO or Europe, Russia is at 4th year of war with Ukraine. Even considering the fact that Ukraine had best military in Europe already before the war, and Western aid boosted strength of Ukraine for ~1.5-2 times equalizing it with Russia, without Western backing, Russia could have defeated Ukraine in ~1 year, Ukrainians simply could have run out of ammo and artillery shells by that point. But with Western aid powers were equalized and Russia is on 4th year of war with just 10% of Ukraine captured since 2022.
West actually deceived Ukraine with military aid, NOT giving Ukraine enough weapons to defeat Russia on purpose, because Ukrainian victory isn't profitable for West, West wants an endless war of attrition against Russia by using Ukraine as a tool. So for all this 3 years West was giving a very small, not enough amount of help to Ukraine ON PURPOSE, Ukraine was deceived and used as tool in war of attrition. But this help was enough to equalize power with Russia.
At now Russia have a military that is numerically 5-6 times larger than at the start of the war (170 thousand Russian troops was initial number, now Russians have about 900 thousand at the frontline and Ukraine have an army of 1100 thousand soldiers), the whole Europe have nearly 600 thousand infantry servicemen, but Europe is not united and there are many small militaries which wouldn't help. Also, unlike Europe, Russia gained extreme EXPERIENCE of real full scale war of 21st century, Russian troops that are fighting in Ukraine have huge combat experience, they are using drones massively, unlike European militaries with no experience. But Europe have 10 times more economic power and 5 times more population, so in longterm Russia will obviously lose, especially considering that this war military build up costed Russian people already a high inflation and Russian society is tired of war. I doubt that Russia will go beyond Ukraine even if Ukraine will be captured fully.
Also, unlike war in Ukraine, Russia simply don't have a reason to fight with Europe. War in Ukraine started originally after American backed coup in Ukraine in 2014. America and Europe supported a pro-Wetsern coup in Kiev, and Russia as the only post Soviet regional power responded with its own coups in Crimea and Donbass. So, this war is a result of the competition of global powers for the spheres of influence, America and Europe have supported a coup in Ukraine, a change of government, while Russia is ready to fight for its sphere of influence against Western hygemony. And war in Ukraine started in 2022 only after 8 years of diplomacy and negotiations. Putin didn't wanted this war, Putin was actually trying to avoid this war, Putin tried to solve everything with making a deal with West. This war happened only after 8 years of Russia trying to use diplomacy, and even when war broke out Putin was thinking that it will be a 2 week walkthrough with low casualities and low harm, and when the first blood appeared, Putin started peace talks with Ukraine already at the 5th day of war, and during Istambul peace talks Russia offered Ukraine a proposal of pre-war border. Putin is actually much more peaceful and diplomatic that you might think, and war started only after diplomatic failures and war was managed unprofessionally.
So just chill bro, Russia isn't threating Europe, there is nothing that Russia needs from Europe, and no such rhetoric inside Russia, I am telling this to you as Russian, I am Russian citizen, there is NO any agressive rhetoric against Europe in Russia. In case with Ukraine, there was an 8 years old information war and 8 years of propaganda from both sides. So your whole point makes no sence, Russia doesn't need and doesn't want to invade Europe, we have NO interests in Europe, we want to only retake Ukraine from the Western sphere to our sphere of influence and nothing more. The only thing we want is to secure our sphere of influence against other global powers such as America, China or Europe. In 2014 America and Europe supported a coup in Ukraine, and now our military is retaking Ukraine back to Russian orbit. We have NO disputes with Baltic nations, we have NO disputes with Poland, we have NO disputes with Finland, Putin stated many times that we want peace, trade and good relations with European Union because you were our best gas buyers and car suppliers
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The reason for all the failures and defeats of the Russian army is the insufficient initial number of troops. On February 24, 2022, when the war began, Russia fielded only about 100 thousand soldiers against Ukraine. Plus several tens of thousands of soldiers from the DPR and LPR. There were about 150 thousand soldiers in Ukraine already on the first day of the war. That is, at the beginning of the war, the number of the two armies was comparable. And as you know, a numerical advantage of at least one and a half times is needed for a successful offensive. Ukraine began to mobilize already on the first day of the war. In the first two months of the war, the Russian army was still able to move somewhere, but over time the Russian offensive stalled, due to the fact that Ukraine had been mobilizing since the first day of the war, and the number of the Ukrainian army was growing every day. The Russian offensive is bogged down by superior Ukrainian numbers. In the first seven months, Russia fought against Ukraine with a relatively small contingent of contract soldiers, without conscripts and without mobilization. Thanks to the numerical superiority that the AFU accumulated during the 7 months of the war, the AFU was able to launch a successful offensive in September 2022. But the Ukrainian army won simply due to numerical superiority. In other words, it's not an equal fight. In equal conditions, the Russian army demonstrated a much higher combat capability in March 2022. As of mid-April 2022, the Russians have seized territory in Ukraine the size of England. Do not forget that the Ukrainian army is much stronger than the French, German or British army. Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had ~ 150 thousand soldiers and 1000 tanks, the AFU is the largest army in Europe. For comparison, Britain in 2021 had about 70 thousand soldiers and 200 tanks. Germany has 80,000 soldiers and 400 tanks, and France had 120,000 soldiers and 600 tanks in 2021. As of February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian army was the most numerous and mechanized in all of Europe, not counting the Russian army.
It is quite easy to defeat the Russian army when Russia is fighting without mobilization, when Russia is fighting without conscripts, when Russia is fighting with a limited contingent of 100 thousand soldiers, and you already have a comparable army on the first day of the war, and you are mobilizing from the first day of the war, and the West also gives you unlimited resources to wage war. Unlimited amount of money, a huge amount of weapons. And in the end, despite all these weapons, despite all this help, despite the numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia still wins in the end - 60% of the Kherson region, half of the Zaporozhye region, 80% of the Luhansk region have been occupied by Russia since February 24, 2022 and Russia holds this territory against Western tanks and tens of billions of US dollars as military aid. West provided Ukraine by nearly 130 billion dollars in 15 months - few pre-war Ukrainian year state budgets.
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@Pillar8908 Russia is breaking a 2014 defensive line in the Donbass, where Ukraine was building defensive lines and bunkers for 9 years straight from 2014, where there are bunkers that stand against 3000 kilogramm aviation bomb, and all these massive defenses and bunkers are located in the highly populated urban region, where one city smoothly goes to another with huge empty potato fields with no cover between them, while Ukrainians have heights and rivers as natural barrier at some parts. And also Russia have invaded Ukraine with much smaller army than Ukraine had, Russia is fighting without mobilization for nearly two years now, so in fact, on august 2024 defending Ukrainian side have numerical superiority over Russia, Ukraine have more soldiers than Russia in the frontline, and despite all this Russia is able to advance and Russia took the strongest Ukrainian fortress of the Donbass and strongest fortress in the World in fact - Avdeevka, that was main defensive chain of Ukraine. Russia have total superiority in artillery, Russia produces 3 times more artillery shells than entire NATO combined, while Ukraine already ran out of Soviet artillery shells back in the end of 2022, and NATO gives 50-60% of its artillery shell production, so there are 6 times superiority in artillery on the Russian side while half of NATO's European arsenals are empty. Artillery and aviation are two Gods of War. In all recent wars for 200 years artillery was the cause of 90% of casualities, while infantry combat is around 5% of casualities. 90% of all soldiers who have died in WW1 and WW2 died due to artillery shelling, not in actual combat and shooting of rifles.
In the start of the war Russian army was technologically and tactically backward - there were no FPV drones in the Russian military and Ukraine had huge superiority by using FPV drones against Russian armored columns. But Russians learned from their mistakes and already during Ukrainian 2023 summer counteroffensive there was PARITY between Russia and Ukraine in drones, and at now Russia produces 3000-4000 FPV drones PER DAY. Also Russia have modernized its aviation to more accurate bombs with better precision, the same that USA did in late Vietnam war and what revolutionised American military, the accuracy of bombs grew up for DOZENS of times and during the Iraq war USA were very effectively using this tech. USSR and Russia were totally backward from USA in this technology untill 2024. Also, Russia have total superiority in electronic warfare, that is very effeftive against Ukrainian FPV drones and famous American sattelite navigation artillery shells of Hotwitzer-777, dropping accuracy of 777 satellite guided shells from 70% to 2% and making these shells economically useless.
So, it is fair to say that Russia is fighting with QUALITY, while Ukraine is fighting with QUANTITY. Russia is fighting without mobilization, Russia is fighting with only volunteers, while in Ukraine there are already nearly one million men were forcefully mobilized, and at now Ukrainian morale is low, Ukrainian men are trying to avoid mobilization and Ukrainian police forcefully catches men on the streets like animanls. And mobilized Ukrainian men at now are being thrown into battle with less than week of training. While Russian morale is normal, because Russia have 4 times more population than Ukraine, and Russian casualities at now smaller than Ukrainian, so the nearly same casualities affect 4 times bigger population 4 times less. Also, Russia is fighting war without mobilization and Russian volunteers have at least 3 months of preparation.
Russia is very slowly advancing, having less soldiers than defending Ukrainian side, but Russian soldiers have better training, better morale, superiority in artillery, FPV drones and aviation, while Ukraine have superiority of defending side (in EQUAL conditions attacking side is suffering 1.5 times more casualities), also Ukraine have landscape and urban superiority with defensive lines and bunkers. So, casuality ratio between Russia and Ukraine is nearly equal with small superiority on Russian side, and Russians having less soldiers are able to advance slowly and capture strongest fortification system on Earth in urban warfare and open spaces with no cover between them.
In fact, Russia have less soldiers than Ukraine, but few timer more support firepower, while Ukraine is defending with more men and have numerical superiority and fortifications
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War is a very expensive and financially costly business. You need a lot of money to supply troops by ammo and equipment, you need a strong economy. Wars are won by economics and logistics, not arrows on the map. Ukraine is a poor corrupt post-Soviet country. Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, if we don't count Russia as a European country. Corruption and poverty was everywhere in Ukraine even before the war started. And when the war actuallu started, Ukraine's economy simply collapsed as a result of migration and mobilization. The Ukrainian economy has suffered much more from the war, than the Russian economy suffered from sanctions. Without the financial assistance of the West, Ukraine would have been defeated a long time ago.
For the last 15 months, West provided Ukraine with about 200 billion euros of financial assistance. These are six annual state budgets of Ukraine. Three annual budgets (72 months) of the country for 15 months of 2022-23. 25 Ukrainian military budgets. Before the war, in 2021, for example, Ukraine spent about 8 billion euros on the army, about 20% of the state budget. In last 15 months, Ukraine was allocated 200 billion euros of financial assistance. Without this help, Ukraine would not be able to wage war for economic reasons, and Russian tanks would have been in Odessa and Kyiv for a long time. If not for the financial assistance of the West, Ukraine would have capitulated in the summer of 2022.
And Russia, in fact, is not fighting against Ukraine. Russia is fighting against the entire Western Bloc.
As for arms supplies, they amount to about $50 billion. Russia spent so much money before the war on rearmament of the army in 5 years. Ukraine has exhausted its reserves of Soviet artillery ammunition and is now fighting with American artillery and American ammunition. Without these American guns, Ukraine would have no guns at all. At the same time, Ukraine fires several times less ammunition every day than Russia. And even so, Britain, the USA and Poland do not have enough production capacity to provide the AFU. Their production is lower than consumption. If it were not for the support of the West, Russia would have already captured the whole of Ukraine twice.
In 2023 West increased the scale of military assistance to Ukraine. Without this help, Ukraine
would have been defeated a long time ago, and one cannot say that allegedly "Russia cannot defeat one weak Ukraine." Because Russia is fighting not only against Ukraine, but against Ukraine with huge support from the West, and this support, from an economic point of view, many times exceeds the capabilities of the Russian economy.
The reason for all the failures and defeats of the Russian army is the insufficient initial number of troops. On February 24, 2022, when the war began, Russia fielded only about 100 thousand soldiers against Ukraine. Plus several tens of thousands of soldiers from the DPR and LPR. There were about 150 thousand soldiers in Ukraine already on the first day of the war. That is, at the beginning of the war, the number of the two armies was comparable. And as you know, a numerical advantage of at least one and a half times is needed for a successful offensive. Ukraine began to mobilize already on the first day of the war. In the first two months of the war, the Russian army was still able to move somewhere, but over time the Russian offensive stalled, due to the fact that Ukraine had been mobilizing since the first day of the war, and the number of the Ukrainian army was growing every day. The Russian offensive is bogged down by superior Ukrainian numbers. In the first seven months, Russia fought against Ukraine with a relatively small contingent of contract soldiers, without conscripts and without mobilization. Thanks to the numerical superiority that the APU accumulated during the 7 months of the war, the APU was able to launch a successful offensive in September 2022. But the Ukrainian army won stupidly due to numerical superiority. In other words, it's not an equal fight. In equal conditions, the Russian army demonstrated a much higher combat capability in March 2022. As of mid-April 2022, the Russians have seized territory in Ukraine the size of England. Do not forget that the Ukrainian army is much stronger than the French, German or British army. Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had ~ 150 thousand soldiers and 1000 tanks, the AFU is the largest army in Europe. For comparison, Britain in 2021 had about 70 thousand soldiers and 200 tanks. Germany has 80,000 soldiers and 400 tanks, and France had 120,000 soldiers and 600 tanks in 2021. As of February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian army was the most numerous and mechanized in all of Europe, not counting the Russian army.
It is quite easy to defeat the Russian army when Russia is fighting without mobilization, when Russia is fighting without conscripts, when Russia is fighting with a limited contingent of 100 thousand soldiers, and you already have a comparable army on the first day of the war, and you are mobilizing from the first day of the war, and the West also gives you unlimited resources to wage war. Unlimited amount of money, a huge amount of weapons. And in the end, despite all these weapons, despite all this help, despite the numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia still wins in the end - 60% of the Kherson region, half of the Zaporozhye region, 80% of the Luhansk region have been occupied by Russia since February 24, 2022 and Russia holds this territory against Western tanks and tens of billions of US dollars as military aid.
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Да, российская армия сейчас наступает в ДЕСЯТКИ раз быстрее чем в конце 2022 года. В конце 2022 и начале 2023 года российские войска несколько месяцев захватывали 60 тысячный город Бахмут и несколько деревень вокруг, а потом несколько месяцев Россия сидела в обороне. Сейчас же Россия берет по одной-две деревни каждый день. Российское наступление ускорилось после взятия Авдеевки в феврале 2024 - это была самая сильная крепость и сеть укреплений Украины на всём Донбассе, и по сути российские войска окружили и взяли самую сильную крепость на Планете. Также российское наступление ускорилось благодаря вторжению Украины в Курскую область - мало того что Украина проигрывала войну на Донбассе и каждый день теряла территории, Украина решила часть своих войск и элитные бригады кинуть в Курскую область и расширила протяженность фронта. Как итог за последние 3 месяца российские войска заняли больше территорий, чем за предыдущие 7 месяцев наступления западнее Авдеевки. Российские войска заняли порядка 700 квадратных километров за 3 месяца, и темп, скорость наступления российских войск только увеличивается, а украинская оборона шатается и ходит ходуном. Важно отметить что со взятием Авдеевки российские войска прорвали оборонительную линию 2014 года, где Украина строила укрепления, бункеры и троншеи долгие 9 лет с 2014 года. Российские войска прорвали самую сильную оборонительную линию на Планете. А дальше у Украины уже укрепления не такие сильные. К августу 2024 российские войска подошли к Покровску и Мирнограду, 100 тысячной городской агломерации, но вместо штурма российские войска остановили наступление и решили укрепить фланги. Сейчас российские войска штурмуют Южно Донецкую городскую агломерацию, российские войска заняли Украинск, Новогродовку, Угледар, Селидово и Горняк - это города с суммарным населением под 80-100 тысяч человек, в полтора-два раза больше Бахмута, и заняли за 3 месяца вместе с 400 квадратными километрами, когда как в случае с Бахмутом бились 8 месяцев и заняли 100 квадратных километров. Кураково тоже скоро падёт - а вот дальше у Украины уже нет городов и оборонительных линий, дальше уже идут деревни и пустые поля которые российская армия будет занимать гораздо быстрее, а когда падет Покровск - главный логистический узел Украины на всем Донбассе, и за Покровском у Украины кстати тоже уже нет городов и укреплений, только поля и редкие деревни, Украина будет обречена потерять весь Донбасс. К весне 2025 года будет взят Торецк, Часов Яр, российские войска выйдут к реке Оскол, будет взята Великая Новосёловка, и возможно уже будет во всю идти битва за Покровск, а может он уже будет взят - после падения Селидово российские войска открыли для себя южную дорогу на Покровск, так что к Покровску теперь подойдут сразу с двух сторон и будут окружать. Украина потеряет всю Донецкую область к концу 2025 или началу 2026 года такими темпами.
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Russia have upper hand as a result of Russian strategy - war of attrition, that was choosen by Russian comand in late 2022. Russian production of artillery shells is 3 times larger than of entire NATO alliance, and North Korean help is small part of what Russia produces by itself. Russia may have even bigger superiority over Ukraine, if Russia had mobilization. But currently Russia is fighting without mobilization, by using only volunteers. Ukraine was mobilizing since the start of the war, and after 2.5 years or war Ukraine simply ran out of manpower, Ukrainian police is catching Ukrainian men on streets like animanls. And Zelensky made a very silly and mistaken move by invading Kursk region of Russia while Ukrainian army have manpower shortages. So, Ukrainian defensive capabilities in the Donbass region have decreased, while for Ukraine Donbass is most important area, because this is highly populated urban area where one city is being right after another city, urban area is good for defense and hard to attack. Also, since 2014 to 2022, for 8 years Ukraine was building a defensive lines, bunkers and fortifications in this area, and also Ukraine have superiority of landscape. Russia is fighting without mobilization, so Russia have less soldiers than Ukraine, while Ukraine is defending on good landscape with best on the Planet defensive line and support from the West. But if you look on the map, you can see that it is Russia who is advancing, not Ukraine. So, despite the fact that Ukraine have more soldiers than Russia and all other advantages, it seems like Russia have some bigger and more sufficient advantage over Ukraine in something else - artillery, the God of War. Also Russia organised massive production of FPV drones since 2023, and at now there are a parity in usage of drones on both sides. So, if in the start of the war it was Russia who was backward in this technology, at now it is Ukraine who is backward and Russian drone production is increasing. Also Russia modernized its aviation equipping it with 3000 kilogramms bombs and navigation systems for more precise heats. Thus, we can clearly see, that it is Ukraine who is fighting with quantity, while Russia is fighting with quality and casuality ratio is nearly equal if we combine all advantages of both sides.
With regards to Western help to Ukraine, after 2.5 years of war it is clear that United States don't want Ukraine to win. Russia is strategic enemy of USA, and USA want the war of attrition against Russia to last for as long as possible to cause damage to Russia. So, this is why USA have a GOAL to NOT give to Ukraine sufficient amount of military help. Ukraine was tricked by its Western partners, Western powers have a conspiracy deal to give to Ukraine insuffifient amount of help in order to war against Russia to be endless
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