Comments by "worn down" (@worndown8280) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Imagine if the mother stayed with their child.
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  2. What if I told you the Mexican fertility rate is 1.9? You need 2.1 for a steady population. Mexico is in the same boat as everyone else. Even Niger's fertility rate is dropping on average 1% a year. This is a global problem.
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  3. It is Saudi. They are the only nation that has what everyone wants.
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  4. The first issue people think backwards on. They think, how can we accommodate women better or better put, mothers. The more effective option would be how can we make men better providers for the family. That has a multiplier effect. It makes the male able to provide for his family without the wife having to pull double duty, which is unreasonable. And 2nd, it makes that man more attractive in the first place for starting a family, the main thing most young women complain about, there being a lack of "good" young men to marry. But we cant do that because misogyny. This is a doom loop all societies reach at certain points.
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  5.  @MrRezillo  Thats an interesting sentence you constructed. "lower orders" and "overbreed". Do you by chance have a funny mustache and a penchant for snazzy uniforms? All kidding aside. If you were ever poor, which from your insanely side comment I can tell you have not been, you would know that one of the cheapest and funniest activities that men and women have come up with is absolutely free, though sometimes there is a surprise upon completion. One could easily ask whey those who have wealth beyond the dreams of most people have little to no children at all? Perhaps a cup with no bottom cannot be filled, maybe?
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  6.  Morgan Allen  We dont even have enough workers for all the jobs we have. Our problem going forward will be not enough workers. Anywhere where automation is useful and more importantly cost effective with even a neutral ROI, it will be used. In this case, because of lack of product cotton will be one of those areas. We have had little textiles in the US since the 1990s. We still had 6-3% unemployment. So how does one destroy a job that never existed?
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  7. I am not sure if you understand you proved his point. Even in the summer, when you have the most solar, you still need all of the grid and all of its inputs including keeping the power plant spun up. Unless a home can be 100% self sufficient, year round, its not really "helping" as far as a carbon footprint goes, if thats important to you. It sure will offset higher energy costs though.
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  8.  @wilsi473  no. You don't understand that these interests are opposed to one another. People must choose. We have lied and said people, women in particular can have both. They really can't. And civilization needs one to continue to exist. If people don't want that and prioritize one over the other, that's fine. But they should fully understand this. Today it's not even talked about.
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  9. As someone else said, Peter struggles, as most people do, with their personal feelings in domestic politics influencing their reason. We are all only human after all.
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  10. Is this the same food Tractor Supply says doesnt stop laying hens from laying?
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  11.  @hamzamahmood9565  Youngest Millennials are 29. Statistically if a woman reaches 30 without children she only has a 50% chance of having two. Millennials missed their boat.
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  12. The "series year" denotes the time that particular note($1, $5, $20, etc) design was adopted, not printed. So if you see a bank note that has a series of 2017 on it it means it was printed sometime between 2017 and the time you obtained it. Hope that helps.
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  13. They are noisy as all hell. The new type 93 is much quieter but still noisy compared to ours. But thats not the biggest issue with Chinese subs. Its their reactors. They leak like crazy.
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  14. Government spending is 20% of GDP, you would have to cut spending by half damn near to get a balanced budget. A 10% decline in spending would create a depression. If the government increased taxes to that amount it would have the same effect. But some people dont understand economics, so they cant understand that.
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  15.  @sleeplessdev7204  No one is a threat to the US. Not even remotely. Everyone who could attack us in theory, is an alley or a heavily dependent economic partner. No one could even get to us to land troops. Could someone lob nukes at us, sure. But we could throw them right back.
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  16.  @notdan995  because of the debt limit no. It should never happen. Since 1979 when Congress passes a budget the debt ceiling automatically gets raised, its call the Gephardt rule. The thing is Congress hasnt passed an actual real budget since 1997.
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  17.  @samdetwiler4531  I love reading posts where people think all wheat is just wheat and all corn is just corn. Its nice to see at least one post on target.
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  18.  @adampeters9861  Its the Reagan Democrat redux. People are voting their economic interests over political ideology.
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  19.  @tonynotstated695  The reason why is 4 of the majors, Ford, GM, Toyota and Honda have all said no we arent going to do this anymore, or at the very least, heavily scaling back. There isnt demand. You can love EVs and say that they are not for everyone or every purpose. But for some pushing EVs is approaching religious fanaticism. Most of the demand for EVs, at their current price point, has been met. Thats even with absurd government subsidies.
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  20. In 2018. How quickly people forget. 35 days.
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  21.  @kriskeena9438  You are right. I myself retired at 45. I was told I would never advance. So I bailed. Never been happier. But you are very right about how many men dont work and are therefor not good prospective partners. The question is why? You could say its just entitlement, but I think that is an oversimplification in most cases.
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  22.  @keedt  Argentina's problems are purely political. It has zero to do with geography, though their position in the globe, about as far away from the most advanced markets as you can get, surely adds to the cost of things.
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  23. It really should be video recorded date, not release date. Hes just releasing it now. Its Dec 4th not Nov 27th.
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  24.  @hamzamahmood9565  Why do you have to import cheap labor to do jobs that dont need doing unless you import cheap no skilled labor? You think the people coming from Syria and sub Saharan Africa are skilled labor? Seriously?
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  25.  @buildmotosykletist1987  people and nations say a lot of things. That said I would bet Japan would. The last Japanese island is less than 50 miles away from Taiwan. But you never know until it happens for sure.
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  26.  @willchristie2650  People who think automation will save us never seem to understand economies of scale. It cost a lot of money to automate. It becomes prohibitively expensive when your market for the automated goods you intend to sell is constantly shrinking because few are being born and more are dying every year. The math on the ROI never works out then. Which is the scary part. This is how civilizations collapse. And this is where Zeihan's comment, where we dont have the math for this, comes from.
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  27. In the 90s I went on a troop exchange to Russia, their military was scared to go on ships. They were tinder boxes. The idea that fire suppression systems on Russian warships even approaches American standards is just not the case. Look at all the fires on subs they have just in peace time. Add to this that the Moskva entered service in 1979, it was over 40 years old, with technology to match. Its possible the Ukraine hit it, but I dont have a hard time believing the ship caught fire on accident.
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  28.  @solylapalma  Holding up a tanker, even for a few days, destroys supply chains. Imagine if you ran out of petrol for just two days. Its only two days. It would destroy any modern economy.
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  29.  @BigDsGaming2022  I mean I dont have that many chickens so I just grow my own feed. But I dont suppose someone can do that and make profit off it. I just do it because I can. Keeps me busy.
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  30. Which is why as they die there will be a tsunami of homes on the market. Boomers own roughly 40 million homes. They will be sold, rented or used by their children or grandchildren. Either way it will help soak up demand for housing. The only question is what condition will they be in and if they are in the proper location.
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  31. Even if they "win" they have still lost. With the amount of infrastructure destroyed and the amound of Ukrainians who have left and more than likely will never come back, Ukraine is dead. Before this war started they were the most corrupt nation in Europe with one of the worst demographic trends. This just sped things up. Very sad but this same thing will happen to a lot of nations in the next 50 years.
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  32. Joe Rogan upped his viability when he did the podcast. The problem with Japan getting involved, which it would, would make every nation uneasy as the 1930s arent that long ago. It was the same with Germany and Ukraine. The Germans didnt want to get involved to that degree. But Japan doesnt have that luxury. The nearest Ryukyu island is less than 50 miles from Taiwan.
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  33. @ Most devote religious couples are well above fertility rates. In the US the only two religious groups who arent are Catholics at 1.5 and Mormons who are at 2.03. Devote Protestants are at 2.5. Women who do not attend a religious services are at 1.3. Among all religious women in the US the fertility rate is 2.1, exactly replacement level.
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  34.  @joshmontgomery4040  I mean the info is there about what the series year means on the bills. If you dont believe me go look it up. If you dont care, thats fine. Doesnt bother me.
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  35. Yea those highly educated Venezuelans would be in their 50s by now. How many 50 year olds can walk 3000 miles including through one of the most dangerous jungles on the planet?
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  36.  @jaredyoung5353  Unions work for employees when you are able to limit labor. For the Chamber of Commerce it would if you limited capital. That limits your competition. But that would strangle them too, so typically they just lobby for more regulation to make it almost impossible for new businesses to start. The exact opposite of the thing the Chamber of Commerce should do. Same how when unions sell out their workers for political alliances.
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  37.  @vi6ddarkking  There as been very little life extension. What there has been is life preservation. Most of the "increase" was simply reducing childhood mortality. You got two people. One dies at 0 the other at 100. Your median life expectancy is 50. But raise that 0 to even say 65, that boosts it to 82.5 years. Huge increase. All that said I am not sure if you took a look around you but people are unhealthier than ever. Obese, out of shape, and proud to boot. Even the God Emperor of Mankind couldnt protect that.
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  38. Japan itself has the 2nd strongest Navy on the planet. The question is IF the US and Japan would get involved or just let Taiwan drain Chinese manpower.
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  39. Eastern Europe is collapsing population wise and some parts were doing so right before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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  40.  @tukkajumala  Respectfully, why would the trend change unless you address the underlying issue? People dont have children, women do. And now, at this time, women dont have to leverage their reproductive capacity for safety or for status. They just get a job like men do. When women have to start to do that again because the state doesnt pay benefits or employers stop employing women, then fertility rates will increase. But that wont be until after a nation state collapses. Even then it might not happen, women will do like they do in Venezuela, they leave and go to a more stable country that still has these things. But eventually the locusts run out of fields to go to and they die.
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  41.  @swirvinbirds1971  I guess we will see in November if people agree with that sentiment. But pointing out the economy is better now than in the middle of a global pandemic shutdown, is a very very low bar.
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  42.  @kq2799  because of how most nations societies are structures and how taxes are paid. Its not like most people still farm and produce their own food so even if the checks stopped, they could still eat. If the checks stop, because there are to few to pay those taxes, then not only do the pensioners stop getting money, but the stores also loose all their shoppers who are pensioners. Thats how societies collapse over night. Or you could just print a lot of money like Venezuela and get the same thing.
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  43. It would be great if the young were not taxed into serfdom to pay for the elderly. You think they are going to cut SSI? You think families will actually take care of each other? We have had 90 years of social conditioning and most families are in tatters. The average American is just as irresponsible as the government they vote for.
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  44. Where is that "common vault" going to be located at? Wherever it is, they will have the power.
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  45. Someone had to hold the bag
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  46.  @Grenadier311  at least you used paragraphs.
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  47.  @Grenadier311  It makes the eyes bleed. Gratitude.
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  48. The question will be what will happen when all that foreign money comes running into the US? Will inflation increase causing the Fed to raise rates even higher? Or will the Fed tightening strengthen the dollar to the point where foreign deprecated currencies purchase little in the US markets?
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  49.  @johnl.7754  People have often made exuses why women have stopped having kids, but your answer is the most honest one. Historically people in much worse economic conditions have reproduced endlessly. I wish more would be as honest. as you
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  50. I pasture my chickens. The issue is that it wont scale for folks who want a lot of eggs. I have thought for a while that if city folks want eggs, rural folks are going to have to start growing a lot more birds on their land in a more decentralized manner. Which means more people keeping birds. But either way, that low low cost folks have been use to is gone.
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