Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "PolyMatter" channel.

  1. What countries can support the need in sufficient numbers? And why would the sort of person China needs go to China when the West can pay more and provide better conditions? Alternatively: how well do you think China can survive off the West's leavings?
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  2. What part doesn't make sense? Can you be more specific?
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  3. As an Australian, a country of 25 million that's routinely accused of bullying China's 1.4 billion, you need to find another word. This whole "bullying China" thing is just sad. The gum on your shoe also finds it difficult to take your complaints about rudeness seriously. As a nation, the PRC needs to grow up. Frankly the CCP has made turned it into a country full of adult children. Step 1 is getting leadership that's passed the same emotional development milestones my eight year old has.
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  4. 1. Where is it going to get sufficient numbers? 2. Given the per capita GDP is low and it's a society that is not prepared for a massive influx of immigrants, how is it going to attract them when western countries are offering more money and are prepared for a large immigrant influx?
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  5. Congratulations on sharing North Korea and Cuba's criteria for success.
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  6. It's really difficult to transport that much water by ship. They're having problems piping it from the south, shipping across the Pacific would be insane.
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  7. But didn't they defeat poverty? I'm sure they did. After all, the CCP would never lie or misrepresent to make it seem like they'd achieved something. Right?
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  8. And why would the sort of person The PRC needs want to go there, when western countries will offer better pay and living standards?
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  9. ​ @grievetan he doesn't know. That sentence is probably all he's capable of.
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  10.  @saiedahmed8917  are you really incapable of getting the list of countries that recognise Taiwan yourself? Keeping in mind that the legal theory makes no stipulation on how big the country that recognises it needs to be. The Vatican alone is enough to make it qualify. And further keeping in mind that the declarative theory doesn't even say that recognition is required, as long as it acts like a country. I'm ignoring the rest of your post as it's completely irrelevant to the question. I really can't imagine why you'd think chip investors leaving is relevant to the question. I'm expecting a bunch of tangents, btw, because the idea that you're approaching this question in anything remotely resembling good faith is laughable.
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  11.  @Fauzanarief-n7i  which is something that stops working on a regular basis.
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  12. @Jaye considering the 18 to 25 year lag between a newborn starting to be useful to society, they don't really have the time to fiddle around with and small changes. Or the resources to go for big ones.
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  13.  @mmmayocide  lol. Ignoring that this has nothing to do with anything I'd said: You point a gun at me, I'll say whatever you like.
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  14. Seventeen years, including the last two in Hong Kong. The ones who seem clueless are generally the ones who see it positively. (Clueless or shameless liars)
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  15. Congratulations to the PRC on being in the same boat as North Korea. Although I'm curious how a country with a lower standard of living and a GDP of only 10k per person is going to attract the talent it requires on the scale it needs.
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  16. Demographics don't move quickly (at least, not without a disaster of some kind. This is what makes the CCP's failure to anticipate it a classic example of incompetence, it's one of the most predictable sciences you could ever ask for.) so not a crash, but definitely an overall slowdown that would exacerbate other weaknesses.
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  17. >>For example we solve the water shortage problem systematically by conveying and redistributing the supply.<< That it's still a problem suggests the answer isn't that simple. >>Why we are doing this? Why don't we just raise the price of water? Because that would cause hundreds and millions of poor families to get poorer. And for the factories and industries they will be enjoying the low water price to provide more good supplies for the domestic families<< It's a choice of short term pain vs long term pain. As usual, the CCP has avoided short term pain. >>And who paid for such a gigantic project? The Chinese government. Who benifit from this? The Chinese People.<< What a strange statement.... Where do you think the Chinese govt gets its money from? The Chinese people pay for it. The CCP has just done a wonderfully bad job of allocating resources and managing the economy (keep in mind that the Communist party's economic successes have relied on allowing in some capitalism) >>Our government need to solve the people's basic needs of surviving. Our government is taking its responsibility<< Really? It's taking responsibility? So if you point out a government failure, especially a central government failure, it'll accept the criticism and its role in the failure? Or will it simply start to get nasty? If it's bad enough, would it even accept that other people might be able to run the PRC and put their own positions at risk by allowing free elections? If not, what does taking responsibility look like? Finding a convenient scapegoat that doesn't hurt anyone really important? >>While black people and poor whites in Dallas were suffering from the insufficient water supply in Feb. 2021.<< Caused by people trying to avoid having water freeze during an unusually harsh winter which also caused problems with electricity supplies. Do you think this is the same thing?
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  18. How so? And how sustainable do you think it is?
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  19. It's worth checking the effect of the current heatwave. Water levels in central China (including Yangtze contributors) are amazingly low. I'm talking to people who are having constant power cuts because there isn't enough water to provide power. This is at a time that's normally the wet season.
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  20. >>This is alarmist. Sounds like you are saying China is facing an impending but slow moving catastrophe. That may be true, but is entirely misleading. Because there are many other countries with even lower birth rates<< Can you name them and give their GDP per capita vs the PRC's of 10k USD? For the ones you did name: South Korea - GDP per Capita 31k USD Singapore GDP per capita 60k USD Spain GDP per capita 27k USD From the Global Times (which I'll rely on to never exaggerate how bad things are) "China's birth rate in 2020 was recorded as 8.52 per 1,000 people" Those are 2020 numbers, when there were 12 million births. Last year, there were 1.4 million fewer births (A drop of over 10% that's part of a downward trend that's been going at roughly that speed since the two child policy was introduced in 2015 - Now the births are about 5 million per year fewer than the last year of the one child policy. It's not just the current births per year that are the issue, but the catastrophic rate of decline in such a short period) And how does the PRC's ability to attract immigrants compare with these other countries? >>Even if it is true that China's real fertility rate is 1.4 instead of 1.7, what is 1.4 billion ÷ 2 x 1.4? There would still be ONE BILLION babies in the next generation.<< The issue isn't total population, but ratios of workers to dependents. If the elderly died as soon as they hit retirement, there'd be no problem. Instead, they live for decades after retirement and require increasingly expensive medical care while becoming less and less able to contribute anything at all. >>Even with this "catastrophically" low birth rate, China would still make more babies than any other country on earth except for India. Does this put things in perspective?<< Is the PRC going to start killing off its elderly? Even if they're supported by family instead of the state, they're still a drain on resources and productivity. >>It is premature to worry that China is about to collapse. Spain has a fertility rate of just 1.24, and nobody talks about that. Singapore is at 1.14, and South Korea is at 1.052. Does anybody know about THAT?<< You just named three countries that are capable of attracting large numbers immigrants if they choose to. Spain's net migration is about the same as the PRC's birthrate. Singapore is a wealthy country that can pay immigrants a high amount. As is South Korea. Compared with the PRC, they also don't need to attract as many immigrants to offset the ageing population.
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  21. I mean, sure, they both have blue on the left, red on the right and taper off rapidly towards the end. Beyond that, you might want to get your glasses checked. To say nothing of America's far greater per capita wealth and its ability to attract skilled migrants.
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  22. I was in Hong Kong during the protests. What struck me was just how incompetent the CCP and its puppets are at dealing with the non mainland world. If I'd been told that Carrie Lam, etc had been paid by the CIA to make the problem as bad as she possibly could, it would have made sense.
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  23. Which is only really relevant if your goal is a white America, rather than a prosperous America.
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  24. State pensions are expected to run dry in 2035. As far as personal savings go.... In a country that's obsessed with real estate in a country with a shrinking population... GL with that.
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  25. As someone who lived in Hong Kong until recently, (left because of the NSL) the satisfaction is incredible
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  26.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm  >>Clearly you have no direct interaction with a real Chinese<< My wife is Chinese. We've been together almost twenty years. I was also living in Hong Kong from the start of the protests until National Security Education Day last April. And even if I'd never met one, that wouldn't change a single thing I said. If someone's as ignorant of what they're talking about as you're suggesting I am, it's normally easier to make them look like an idiot. You don't need to flail about looking for something that sticks. >>No wonder your sources of information are all twisted into strange western ways.<< You're... Often wrong about stuff, aren't you? >>PRC is for the Chinese just the country name of CCP.<< This is why I take care to say PRC instead of China. I'd hate for it to be confused with the independent Republic of China. >>Hard for western to believe or even imagine. But all CCP members are elected from PRC people, selected by the PRC people, and work for the PRC people. In another word, CCP is like your parent's name in your family and PRC is your family name for all Chinese. With this fact cleared, everything you mentioned becomes clear. Just nothing but western bias. << This is simply a complete pack of lies that's unrelated to anything we've been discussing. It also has pretty much zero link to anything that you hadn't gone out of your way to force into this conversation while you were resorting to more whataboutism. >>And now let me ask just one simple question. If your system works so well, why was 831K innocent human life lost in the last 2 years? More than the combined loss of US soldiers in WW1 and WW2? Why do you constantly refuse to under this question directly? What is your fear? Facing the fact?<< You've never asked this question before. You've simply stated the number while trying to give reasons to not talk about the PRC's problems. I don't know if I should put this down to an intentional lie, or you simply being so far out of your depth that you don't even begin to know what you're talking about. The answer to this question is contained within my previous post, however: "You're right, the Western world should stop the greed that makes us turn a blind eye to the barbarities of the CCP. It's not a civilised government, it's high time we stopped letting our desire for money make us pretend that they are." Or to put it another way: All those millions around the world have died of the CCP virus because we pretended that the CCP had formed a civilised government. Instead of the lying barbarians they really are.
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  27.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm  so in other words, no you can't, you're making stuff up again. And I was very explicit any the CCP being barbarians. The party is not the people.
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  28.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm  First off, I'd like to thank you for throwing away all pretence at doing anything except pushing the CCP's lies. To begin with, I'll reiterate that the CCP, who are not synonymous with the Chinese people are a bunch of barbarians who've shown they'll use the resources of the state to preserve their right to "struggle cuddle" (I can't use the R word - youtube deletes it) whoever they like. These are the brutes you're supporting. The same brutes who've gone out of their way to ensure your future involves bloodshed when they fall (all governments fall, after all) >>Now I really got it enough educating an idiot.<< It seems like if you were dealing with an idiot, you'd have done a much better job and wouldn't be jumping from point to indefensible point. Seriously, if you're doing this badly against an idiot, then we can only be grateful for the one child policy which has hopefully stopped the country from having more like you. It's saved the PRC future unaffordable welfare leeches. (If you're doing this badly against an idiot, you're so far gone you're obviously of no use to any civilised person. I'm amazed that even barbarian organisations like the CCP find a use for you. You're certainly not doing them any favours by speaking for them) >>Do not even try to separate CCP from its people, because CCP is the people.<< No it's not. It's an unelected govt introduced by a foreign power that's terrified of the people it rules over. >>You keep seeing China's inland politics as a replica of the US, that is why you never understand what I am talking about.<< The problem is I do understand what you're talking about, but your lies don't stand up to close examination. Which is why you've had to resort to whataboutism and keep jumping from point to point. >>China doesn't have 2 parties << Because the CCP is terrified of a choice between it and another viable govt, which is why it's put the PRC into a choice between it and a civil war. >>and arrogantly separating CCP from the people is also nothing but an act of idiocy. << Idiocy is supporting a govt that you can't peacefully transition away from. >>If you want to really understand what China is doing right now the last thing you want to do is to listen to a banana man because even they might look like Chinese, but in fact, they are not anymore<< It's funny, isn't it? The people who 'support' the CCP are those who'll be (literally) murdered if they oppose it. Those who are away from it and able to safely speak their minds are bananas who aren't real Scotsmen (Sorry, I mean aren't real Chinese)
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  29.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm   and this comes from the person who can only respond to a discussion of problems within the PRC with whataboutism. Someone who's evaded the question on what happens when the CCP falls (as all governments do), in addition to so much else Also, the reason the PRC has had massive improvements over the last few decades stems from: 1. Mao was an absolute murderous incompetent who left the PRC with nowhere to go but up. 2. The Chinese communist party embraced capitalism and foreign investment, particularly investment from the USA. Just think: all those tens of millions who died during Mao's reign died for nothing. As far as introspection goes, you should try some. I've answered and you've evaded. The closest you've come to actually dealing with my answers is a childish anger that I don't just believe whatever comes out of you. The CCP has kept you on the same level as an infant 🙂 When they fall, you're doomed.
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  30.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm  yeah, the CCP virus is being survived. With the wonderful side effect of the it's turned the entire civilised world against the barbarian CCP.
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  31.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm  Well this is a post full of projection :-) >> You know what, in a civilized world, no one talks so aggressively like you do. << The 'gum on your shoe' (to quote the global times) finds this statement interesting. I'm guessing that you don't think nuclear war happening as a consequence of hurtful (and accurate) words isn't aggressive in your book. You're a child. >>We use facts and direct experiences to support our mind<< Your jump from whataboutism to whataboutism after you couldn't support your initial position shows this to be a lie. Although it does show that by your own criteria, you're not a civilised person. I have fulfilled this criteria, which is why you jump from topic to topic, but I'm quite happy to stick to the topic at hand (or whatever you bring up) >>not some biased and racist source of Information.<< Racism is an overused accusation coming from those who support the barbarian CCP. Even used in such ridiculous situations as explaining the Hong Kong protests. You'll need to find something else. That term has been used to the point it no longer has meaning. Anyway, if anything I say is wrong, you're free to actually discuss it, rather than jumping from argument to argument to see what sticks. As it is, it looks like there's nothing in your head except a few talking points given to you by your employer (if you're making arguments like this for free, that's somehow even more shameful) >>And the most important aspect in a civilized world is we have the ability to agree with disagreeing.<< I'd agree. This is an ability that's lacking in the PRC. Agreeing to disagree with the barbarian CCP ends badly. Which is why both of us are able to have this discussion openly on an American service. It seems unlikely that we'd be able to have it on Wechat. We couldn't even discuss tennis there. >>The last thing we the civilized world will do is externalization. Separating people into smaller groups and labeling them with that very disrespectful term "barbarian", this could only be done among the barbarians<< If using the resources of a state to protect the party's leadership's right to use Chinese women however they like isn't barbaric, I have to wonder what is. And that's only the tip of the ice berg. It looks like your main thing here is that your feelings are hurt by some well supported honesty (again: if I say anything unreasonable, you're free to challenge that. Your jumping from topic to topic shows that you know you're unable to deal with the facts presented) By your own criteria, you are indeed a barbarian.
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  32.  @JohnSmith-qk4rm >>Look at you replays, really just keeps talking in a biased American way. << Australian way :-) As you've been told before. >>No actual evidence and all based on Trump's word "Fake news". << I like how you gave specific examples of this. It really gives your word weight. ;-) >>So now if you insist, as a well-educated civilized human, I can only agree with disagreeing with you now.<< Agreeing to disagree with me is the only legal position in the PRC. You should try a country that isn't run by infantile barbarians. Then you're actually allow to agree to disagree. >>History will eventually tell who is on the right side.<< This I'd agree with. So far Socialism is still a system that's brought nothing but death and failure. Pooh bear looks like he'll continue this. >>And just as I said, I do wish you can at least survive the current COVID totally caused by your own government<< My government isn't the CCP. And we're doing quite well. High vaccination rates, omicron looks manageable. Our government didn't stake its legitimacy on going to zero. The only problem we have now is the barbarian government to our North. >>so you will have the chance to see your own doomsday. This is the end of this chat. Any more messages from you I will recognize as garbage.<< Run away, child :-) Run away. >>Do you know there is a limit for exchanging money in China? It is literally impossible to make investments with foreign currency.<< There's loopholes. Macau being one of them. Fake invoicing being another. What you insist on forgetting (and continuing) is that the barbarian CCP has created a country run on lies. >>And also consider the fact that the global economy is going downwards but the inland economy in China is still in a stable position.<< If it was stable, it wouldn't need currency controls. Currency controls are only needed when the govt is terrified that people will send their money out of the country (and out of their control) >>There is also a lack of reason why the Chinese would like to invest in other counties. So your idea is not very realistic both from a technical or a motivational perspective.<< You say there's a lack of reason, yet there's a massive amount of Chinese investment in other countries. So much that the govt has been forced to (attempt to) put a limit on how much people can send overseas. This is why sanctions on CCP members cause the CCP to lose its mind (while sanctions from the CCP against members of other govts are met with amusement). If the CCP leadership (as well as everyone else with money) wasn't doing their best to send their wealth overseas (where it's safe from the CCP) they wouldn't care about sanctions. Anyway, I'm typing this slowly in the hope you'll understand - I don't expect success: You don't need export controls on currency if there's no reason for your people to send money overseas.
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  33. Did you miss the last year and a quarter by any chance? If you've just come out of a coma, you should read the news over this time
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  34. The one child policy made something that was going to happen when the PRC was more developed (and capable of dealing with it) happen far more rapidly. It turned a gradual decline into a plummet.
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  35. You should talk to the global times about their anti CCP misinformation. Article links don't work, but here's a quote. Long story short, by their numbers, between 2016 (which saw a bump after the one child policy was abolished) the births per year has declined by thirty percent ......... There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS. According to a report published by a research center under the Ministry of Public Security on Monday, the number of newborn babies registered with public security organs was 10.03 million last year. The number in 2019 was 11.79 million.
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  36. It's not that the videos are contradicting each other, it's that the PRC has a wide range of huge problems that require contradictory solutions.
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  37. I'll believe that when the CCP stops being terrified of free information, free speech and the ballot box.
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  38. Google Czechoslovakian orphanages when you're ready to be sad inside. To say nothing of the psychological damage done by what would be widespread rape. Plus, yeah, 18 to 25 years before the child is useful.
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  39.  @ronanodonnabhain3888  nobody (literally zero)? No, I don't believe that. Nowhere remotely near the quality and quantity they need? Absolutely. Keep in mind that the marketplace for desirable immigrants is global. Western countries offer more money, better conditions, a culture that's experienced at assimilating immigrants and a language that is commonly spoken outside of western countries.
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  40. Two differences, though: 1. With smaller populations, they don't need to attract as many immigrants to make up for it. 2. With more wealth, they can offer these immigrants better conditions.
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  41. Since then Japan has had thirty years of economic stagnation. And Japan had already had a developed economy with high per capita income. Something the PRC doesn't have. Edit: To include numbers: In 1990, the Japanese GDP per capita was 25K USD - 53k USD today adjusted for inflation. So it was about 5x what the PRC GDP per capita is today Today the Japanese GDP per capita is 40K USD. So they've gone backwards. Still seem harmless? How do you think the Chinese people would react to realising that following the Japan experience, in 30 years time they'll be on 8K USD per capita?
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  42.  @7_years_and_  >>Per capita income change do not necessarily reflect a nation's GDP growth / performance or future<< No, but it does affect the individual's experience >>Countries like Saudi and Qatar where none of its citizen does a full time job. All work is done by foreign cheap workers .Yet citizens of that country have the highest per capita income in the world but what is the guarantee they will continue like this for another 30 years just by oil income << Minimal. Approaching 0. >>30 years ago a construction site needed at least 40 people .now with modern machine a 5 men can do all that . similarly 30 years from now ,things will change .<< This is true. It's also why the PRC was in a race to become rich before it became old. Japan won that race. The PRC didn't. >>Japan per capita income dropped from 1990 has nothing to do with its dropping population . it would have happened in any way due to competition from emerging economies with cheap labour . << You don't think supporting a large elderly population affects productivity? What other developed formerly industrial economies have had the Japan experience? >>Every developing nations had grown interms of per capita income while most developed countries faced drop from the peak at one point << That's a fairly empty statement when you realise it only takes one recession (or even one quarter of negative growth) to make it true. >>.Not only Japan Great Britian and Germany also. it is natural when other developing nations gets their missing share of world economy pie . << UK gdp per capita has stayed as is (in 2021 dollars) since 1990. As has Germany's It's just Japan that's actively gone backwards. Even in that scenario, using the UK and Germany as examples, that's just saying that improvements in living standards are about to stop. >>As Chinese gain more living standard they won't do small paying jobs in future then large population will be irrelevant . unlike 1990's modern factory floors dont need many workers. << Again we go back to that race to get rich before getting old. Automation is painfully expensive and requires a huge about of skilled labour. (It's the area I work in) this labour can get higher paying jobs pretty much anywhere in the world. >>This population age disparity is only a temporary phenomenon it will last one or two generation . but it will benefit china in long term as they dont have to worry about a massive population . . I think China did was the right thing for that country .<< From how things are going, it looks likely to last one or two generations more. One or two generations is 30-60 years. That's a huge amount of time to lose. Between that and the Mao years, that's up to a full century the CCP has cost the Chinese people.
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  43.  @jebise1126  child labour means that kid is a short term investment with minimal returns. They'd need to kidnap absolute masses of people. And the last seems most unlikely of all
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  44. A stable system of government that includes a non-horrifying answer to the question "What happens when the party in charge loses power?"
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  45. >>That is a great video, But I disagree that this is a demographics problem, actually I think it is an advantage, as most jobs are being replaced with computers and automated, << Automation engineers are in huge demand on the global marketplace. It's also painfully expensive to implement and requires a massive amount of bespoke solutions. It's not the magic wand you need it to be. >>beside better education for the fewer numbers who will be contributing in the right jobs.<< Only useful if you're able to employ and make use of those educated people more or less as soon as they've graduated. IT skills degrade very quickly as the industry changes and as what's been learnt is forgotten. For the ones you really need, however, you're competing on the global marketplace. It's very, very common to have highly educated Chinese experts emigrate to other countries and not go back. That brain drain is still ongoing.
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  46.  @OmarSamehTantawy  I'm a Linux DevOps engineer (basically automation to control large computer networks) My experience in LinkedIn is what I imagine it's like to be a woman on almost literally any dating app. Right down to constantly having strangers offer me money :P
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  47.  @OmarSamehTantawy  It's a fantastic area to be in :D
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  48. What a blatant lie. Plenty do speak English. What they say themselves is doing more to tarnish their image than what anyone else says could do. If anything, when the CCP's spokespeople speak English it hurts them even more. Before, their barbarity could be put down to bad translators. When they speak English, their barbarity comes straight from the thug's mouth.
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  49. Sounds like you can point out where it's wrong or unreasonable.
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  50.  @wiiistful7499  it seems that if the Chinese leadership thinks it's so good that it shouldn't need to bother with elections, then it's perfectly reasonable to expect them to build what democratic countries can't. Otherwise, what's the point in them?
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