Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. I've been hearing about how the CCP is going to react and fix this for years. The clock is ticking. In all the years I've been hearing about how they're good to fix it, the problem has gotten worse. Last year, the working age population dropped by 10.75 million. The retirement age population increased by 16.8 million. Next year will be worse. According to official numbers. And keep in mind that it takes 18 to 25 years to turn a newborn into a useful member of society.
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  2.  @ALong-fo5so  oh yeah. I heard that back in 2018, when people were saying the govt was going to make birthrates increase.
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  3.  @safy907  since 2017 each year there's been a 9 to 15 percent decline in births per year. It's now down 45 percent. According to official figures.
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  4.  JackSmith-mk1ru  I can talk well. Which is why you ran away from me.
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  5.  @ndtung  that doesn't contradict what I said.
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  6. We were more or less at that stage between the fall of the USSR and the rise of the PRC.
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  7. They can be trusted to not be worse than reality.
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  8. I've been travelling through Vietnam for the past few weeks and am shocked at just how generally awesome the locals are. So is my Chinese wife. We both got used to Chinese of our generation and younger tending to be borderline sociopaths. That isn't a Chinese thing. I thoroughly loved my time living in Hong Kong. It's a PRC thing. Our only future reason for visits there is family. Even they, we're trying to get the next meeting to be on safe ground. I was stuck during the pandemic. My wife was almost stuck. We have no desire to repeat this.
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  9. In 0 to 4 years, it's still 10 men to 9 women. Teenagers are even worse.
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  10. Is he wrong? If so, where?
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  11. You should tell this to all the trolls gloating about how the USD is going to be replaced.
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  12. It sounds like you think he's wrong on something in this video. But it seems unlikely you'll ever tell us what, specifically, he's wrong about
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  13. As long as you ignore those hundreds of millions of elderly who still need to be provided for for decades after they retire, combined with a relative dearth of new workers to help sustain them.
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  14. Probably isn't. A large amount out that is about getting money out to where it's safe.
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  15. The data comes from the national bureau of statistics and other state sources.
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  16.  @dimsum947  if the CCP thought it would be this easy to collapse the USA, they'd have done it. This is next level self delusion you've got going here.
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  17. How is referring to a white guy who's dead as a dead white guy racist?
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  18. What western country has had its birthrate decline by over 40 percent in five years?
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  19.  @lastpenny849  the figures from China can be relied on to not be worse than reality. What I've given you is the best case numbers (for the PRC) But I'm willing to compensate for their general inaccuracy by changing that to 50 percent if you like.
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  20.  @lastpenny849  do you think thy NBS is unaware of this?
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  21.  @lastpenny849  I can see you won't. You d seem far more interested in distracting attention away from the PRC and pretending things aren't that bad there than you are in honest discussion. And the hard facts here for your whataboutism are: 1. The west can attract and integrate immigrants. The PRC can't. 2. No Western country has or has ever come close to this kind of birth rate decline outside of natural disaster or wartime.
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  22. ​ @johncalla2151 I'm Australian. From a country that was built by immigration from all over the world
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  23.  @johncalla2151  that's right.... Should I wait for your point?
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  24. So who takes care of the elderly?
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  25. In the US, you have the opportunity to peacefully get rid of an incompetent government. Whereas if you ever ask a pro CCP person what happens when the CCP falls and how it's replaced, they either say it'll never happen or they just skip over explaining the peaceful ways in which a new govt could take power.
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  26. You forget that retirees are still consuming resources, but aren't producing.
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  27. I couldn't bear it. 🍯
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  28. It's strange. I see so many people saying he's wrong (on all his videos I see) But it's very rare to see people saying what he's wrong about.
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  29. Then there's the next thing they've got a problem. Keeping in mind the population is ageing rapidly and the economy is slowing. China's lost the race to get rich before it gets old.
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  30.  @BM-wf9uf  you could also check the global times. Births per year have dropped from 17 million in 2017 (up full the 15 million in the last year of the one child policy) to 10 million last year. Those are the official numbers, so whatever the reality is, it's that bad or worse. As an Australian who used to live in Hong Kong, I'm more concerned that we're doing this much trade with the barbarians in Beijing. And as for our own demographics. 1. Unlike China, we became rich before we became old. 2. Their birthrate is lower than most of ours. 3. We can attract immigrants. They can't. Especially not in the numbers they need.
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  31. Because of the damage they'll do on the way down. The more we oppose it, the less damage they can do as they collapse. As for the Republic of China (Taiwan), it's an independent, democratic country and has been since 1912. 37 years before the secessionist PRC was established. The PRC, which is an enemy state that has recently caused the world massive damage. Damage that could have been mitigated if we'd stopped pretending it wasn't a country run by lying barbarians 10 or 20 years ago.
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  32. Seriously. Why on earth would the civilised world want to help the barbaric CCP? Any fantasy that it might become civilised is simple delusion. Do you have a better argument than nuclear war?
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  33. That's probably because you're yet another person who doesn't understand ratios and that non working elderly need resources to survive
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  34. If you're capable but aren't in the right place or have the right experience to convince people to take you seriously, you're not capable. And remember this is the party that says that out of 1.4 billion people, there's no one who could take their place.
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  35. So... 1. The fertility rate in the US is on track to be twice the PRC (with the PRC's decline) 2. The US can attract sufficient migrants to mitigate a far, far smaller problem. So many it can pick and choose. With the PRC can't.
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  36. Because people who don't want two children will respond well to three or more.
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  37. That's been happening for decades. It wasn't enough. Particularly as their hukou screws them.
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  38. What do you think happens when things are so bad your births per year drop by over 40 percent in five years? This is data from the national bureau of statistics.
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  39. From where? How do they attract the sort of people they need in sufficient numbers?
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  40. They're trying their best, anyway.
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  41. "SHANGHAI, Oct 7 (Reuters) - China's central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a fifth straight month in September, official data showed on Monday, mainly due to a surge in prices for the yellow metal. China's gold holdings stood at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. The value of the gold reserves, however, rose to $191.47 billion from $182.98 billion at the end of August."
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  42. Where would they get sufficient immigrants of the type they need and can use?
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  43. Btw, what does the virus stuff have to do with anything in this video?
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  44.  @jimhom2673  it's not just that. You need enough capital to attract highly skilled people with a globally in demand skillset to a place that, except for Shanghai, they don't want to go. To say nothing of anything second tier and below.
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  45.  @jimhom2673  for the last bit. In Australia, my daughter is Australian without question. In the UK, she's British without question. In China, she isn't and never will be Chinese. China is not a place to go for the long term at the best of times.
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  46.  @powerandpresence5290  when I'd done the math before, they'd need to attract something like 3/4 of global immigrants to make up for losses since the end of the one child policy. Basically, it's the closest thing to a solution they've got, but it's still not going to happen. The CCP completely and utterly failed to prepare for the most predictable policy outcome ever.
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  47. I was on holiday there recently. Went on the Mekong delta with a fellow from Lego who was there setting up a new factory.
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  48.  @srp7038  and that five percent a year isn't nearly enough, considering it's shrinking and they're getting old fast.
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  49.  @entrusted2387  I can see from looking at a map that when it comes to that, they've got problems.
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  50.  @entrusted2387  assuming they did have all the weapons and ammo they wanted, though.... Then what? Even if you control the oceans near Asia, a blockade starts out as far away as the Americas and the east coast of Africa. From the Americas, you've got the US navy. Between you and the east coast of Africa, you've got a plethora of countries you've stolen from with your plundering of the south China Sea. Countries that know what happens if you're dominant. And over land through whatever's left of Russia, you're simply not going to get enough supplies to keep you fuelled, heated and fed. Having an extremely well equipped army isn't good to be useful in that case. The PRC is extremely vulnerable to siege.
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