Comments by "Frederick Miles" (@frederickmiles8815) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Targeting C2 is not assassination - Ukraine PIR and SIR is not targeting info. We don't prioritize their targets - we just feed real time data that aligns to Ukrainian PIR and SIR - then Ukraine puts capabilities on targets. The high end capabilities would be systems like Paladin's or HIMAR's - Excalibur rounds are guided and super duper expensive, reserved for HVT's. What your missing is how many Excalibur rounds are provided per tube - meaning how many do you flex and for what targets and how fast could you cross load munitions in order to hit HVT's in real time. I think if I was Ukraine I would look the Crimea bridge - as those capabilities can impact logistical resupply and cutoff main land Russia from Crimera. Similar in regards to China - I would target 3 gorge dam with my long range capabilities, as well as other infrastructure targets: bridges, power stations, granaries, etc I would also target Chinese North South Water Project as the north of China lacks the required clean water it needs. Additionally look for the implementation of naval drones to take out China's shitty Navy. Remember China's military is twice as bad the Russians - literally CCP only funds 60% and has zero audit rights; just imagine the bloated numbers and corruption that is going on behind that curtain.
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  2. Trump is what happened
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  3. Tariffs like these only work in tandem with massive govt spend in support of building industry capabilities (focusing much on inputs, not just large end items imo).
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  4. Thank you, why is this so hard for folks to understand? No one understands holistically where food and energy come from, zero first principle thinking - let alone understanding supply chains (importance of golden bee bees).
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  5. Steeper discount plus demand destruction equals price plummeting. This may blow up GS, just saying.
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  6. Fun facts: DIS CFO was replaced early this year due to Enron like book keeping (to include exposure to FTX). New CFO was sent by sleazy ESG Cartel to decipher the damage (he is from Pepsi) in prep for firesale.
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  7. Biggest threat is the US oligarchy - we have entered a depression an no one knows it yet, another bailout is being negotiated, pretty much same actors form '08.
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  8. PAC3 (projectile munition) has 4 missiles per cannister and I believe 4 cannisters, with a top speed not advertised (but at a minimum over mach 2).
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  9. Palace coup wouldn’t help much, as who ever the new man would be - could not walk away from Ukraine with nothing and survive.
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  10. Typical of the leftist who can’t do math - embarrassing analysis
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  11. Coup was misdirection and setting conditions - to your point his convoy was a feint, most likely to see who is who in the zoo. The 'Angry patrtiots' and tik tok warriors are much more dangerous then Wagner/FSB/GRU slices. And the CIA and policy shitbags will choose the worst COA - supporting Shoigu, why? Because they are a sheltered joke, more concerned with careers then winning (prepping for complete victory in WW3 over China).
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  12. You are not thinking holistically - Russia has no domestic manufacturing capability to replace logistic, maint, and supply rolling stock & non rolling stock items required to keep their remaining maneuver rolling stock FMC. They basically are down to Mongolian horde of expendable infantry.
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  13. Horrific analysis - it’s sad that so many who consultant dont even grasp where money comes from. Money in our system comes from bank lending (debt creation) - Fed does not create dollars, its reserve collateral is swapped for assets from participant banks and used as collateral in their repo markets (inter bank lending), Fed no go brrrr but can act as Banker for banks with an infinite liability cheat code built into the system to remove toxic assets (non performing collateral) with reserves that can be used to ‘prime the pump’. Fed fund is just 2 year Treasury - they dont even control that (by design) and big fear in credit risk land is monetary deflation especially is debt (bonds) that underpin liquidity under perform blowing up OTC swaps and credit spreads.
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  14. Imagine if this was combined with large scale solar farms throughout the south west and more modern wind farms in the plains? Our domestic energy prices would plummet - in support of manufacturing and retail consumption. Agreed - our energy output is the key to onshoring, we just dont have the right horses in office to run this race (as its still fossil fuel heavy for decades).
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  15. Love your analysis but there is a 3rd path that bleeds into one that you mentioned - Russian coup and follow on civil war - 'bandit wars' - spurred by defeat in Ukraine. Most dont understand the ratios of war - ~10 to 15% of personal will be maneuver, meaning Russia has lost their army. Therefore it would make sense that smaller, regional players move when Moscow is at its weakest and most divided. With out a national army warlords and mercenary commanders take over - this could force the follow players to run closer to China (but that may lead China getting sucked into a nightmare scenario) or more likely run to the west for help in search of stability (as their western gaps are defended if they are a member of NATO) - along with Ukraine. For context - after seeing the Russians in Syria none of the last year or so shocked me. regardless of outcome just going into Ukraine would break the Russian military imo - independent of the Ukrainians desire to fight. I was more shocked that Ukraine didnt attack during the winter or that JIT logistics waited until end of Q2. But alas I thought the russians would try and train their conscripts and not burn through them and their remaining FMC rolling stock. So Q4 on everything has broken to Ukraine's side - as Russia has made every possible operational and strategic mistake one could make, while most of Ukraine's gambles have paid off. I also do agree now that the wests paced and conservative approach seems to have been the most productive.
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  16. Also in context losses are well over 100k for Russia, but broken down to MoD, conscripts, Wagner, LPR, DPR, Patriot, etc... that is why numbers are so wild and apart. My understanding actual Russian MoD is under 50k - more then double that is the other buckets above.
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  17. He and his team tried and failed - kind of hilarious - US is number 1 in the world.
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  18. Corrupt rot has placed all of western civilization on the back foot - even our educational system is broken as yesterdays high school diploma is todays undergraduate degree (with 100k of debt) and at worst you get a degree in a made up field, backed by a jacobin like religion. I dont see western Europe recovering any time soon - i see them instead going isolationist or drifting towards authoritarianism.
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  19. Its worse - it already collapsed but due to the manipulation of payments and settlements (decaying collateral of the western oligarchs - they dont want mark to market) its more like the willie coyote who ran off a cliff on a puff of smoke. If the smart kids time it right - rug pull happens during an offensive or aggressive Chinese push to Taiwan (CCP gets blamed and that is a trigger for bailouts of the same bad actors from 08). But dont be fooled - for many this is fatal - meaning there are multiple parties seeking to hand over Taiwan to CCP and go back to BAU.
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  20. Russia is losing its manhood one day at a time - this is how the idiots in DC hiding out are going to divide Iran and Russia, pure clown shoes.
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  21. Space mining and off world manufacturing - powered by Elon’s Optimus bots (his conglomerate is super vertical). Also base camps on Mars and Moon are now easier lifts - once again executed by bots, permanent off world occupation and exploration in support of one day human occupation.
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  22. Canalization - all assets being moved to a poorly equipped/defended spot whose only value is distance from fires. If Ukraine 'developed' sufficient long range capabilities - that would be a death blow to Russia's Navy (the little part of it that is FMC).
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  23. If Ukraine took out Kadyrov - that would be a smart move - kick the hornets nest and walk away.
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  24. Just keep paying 12th directorate - sabotage isnt cheap ;) And yeah it is going to happen - either we knock it down or it doesnt work. Either way strategically target: decapitation & ICBMs/stockpiles, ensure 12th directorate get off ramp to stateside with sweaty bags of cash.
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  25. Crippling Russian operational and strategic logistics / fires cripples Russian defense in Ukraine - also cripples their strategic sticks and makes maintaining their legitimacy and authority domestically damn near impossible as time grinds on. And yes - Taiwan can take the Chinese Navy with ease once drones are in place - long range hits strategic to include ports and drones attack near term. Also long range commercial drones - will be the tool I would use to kill their air defense. Have you watched recent Moscow guerilla interviews recently? First time ever - where the near term street logic is what really is winning / losing - like what is the difference for me? Is losing that bad, is it really losing as long as Russia maintains its Federation? Real fear - will Russia tear itself apart - first time these topic were brought up by folks being interviewed.
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  26. can you fathom the otc swap exposure?
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  27. This is the real reason we need to leave NATO - getting sucked into a collapsing EU (civil strife).
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  28. Omfg my guy - ask yourself what constitutes a fleet and how many assets on the open sea would we even consider FMC?
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  29. Love your analysis but you still dont get where money comes or repo markets in general. Ukraine / gov spending going ham at all levels (to pay for student loan forgiveness, muni bonds sold to pay for migrant boondoggles, Israel, Ukraine war, etc) is all about pumping (selling) tbills that are used to buoy money market funds to keep repo markets stable (as that is the current collateral underpinning our fuggazi markets). Everything else is theater and side show - reverse repo is draining, bank lending facility is sunsetting and when curve reverts those money market funds sink and everyone runs to long bond (security) as market crashes.
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  30. LOL actually parameter tuning impacts AI's ability to create 'good' or 'evil' characters. @jaimeriveras 
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  31. Strangest part of the whole covo is the obsession with EV's and not grid BCP DR or out right replacement throughout southwest and west coast - southeast as well. It is mindboggling that the current and incompetent regime has no subsidized large scale solar farms in areas that could benefit the most (replacing or augmenting grid, lowering price for wholesale and retail). That is where you get the most bang for your book, not EVs (which outside of TSLA are not that great), but energy storage supported by efficiency / preservation algo's would be huge gain for increasing prod by lower cost of fuel. And yes I have no issue with investing in carbon fuels as well. I would love to see Peter talk about methane - may driver for increased temperature around the globe, while Co2 dropped due to pandemic (hasnt yet recovered from 2019 level) since 2006 methane has been showing signs of ice age termination event. Main driver no one has a good explanation as wetlands are largest contributors by far, unless culprit is underground volcanic activity they leads to melting of permafrost maybe?
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  32. You have zero understanding of how our monetary and fiscal systems actually work. If you did you would see the linkage.
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  33. Tesla's are amazing - EV's are trash (masked bailout of bad actors in the auto sector).
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  34. Its a defacto sanction against TX - beyond stupidity, rumorint - Susan Rice is last adult in room and DoD is hunkering down until election is over. Sullivan has been hands down the worst NSA in history, Blinken has no stones to push back.
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  35. This is like the Japan-Russo war fucked 1917 Russia and gave birth to this nightmare. I saw it first hand when i was deployed in the Mid East (2018) - I tried to tell everyone the Russians were a paper tiger and if you think their bad wait until you see the CCP's forces.
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  36. Polls are largely pay for play - internal polling is what is real, so no matter how bad you think Biden is doing, its much much worse. For instance, internal polling shows NJ and NM are toss ups.
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  37. Invasion of Taiwan is a last and desperate gasp - once that fails the CCP is toast. But yes it will happen soon - as Winnie the Pooh is a one man band with no real data determining his decision making. This would lead to break up of China, not just end of CCP - and agree on famine.
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  38. Also have you heard rumblings about Chechnya's involvement in attacks on settlements - as in their relationship to new Hamas splinter.
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  39. Answer: to secure the collateral of US oligarchs, Tony is a step and fetch, modern State Dept is the equivalent of wholesale banking relationship managers. They are trying to back pedal on China as fast as their corrupt legs can carry them - but its too late :-) WW3 is still on track and this second gilded age is coming closer to its demise.
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  40. Its also a bad digital architecture 'thing' - as TGA is one lump data set, and not pnl focused, where a specific revenue tga (payroll tax) funds specific product portfolios (safety net). And your understanding of our monetary system is child like - there is no click of the button buying LOL - bank reserves are not dollars as the Fed's repo market are closed off from real economy. Also QE (what you describe as the Fed legally cannot buy debt directly by design as we dont want to be a ponzi scheme lol) is not a requirement (where banks use cash & deposits to buy bills and bonds to then exchange at Fed for bank reserves for use in Fed repo market), meaning if you wanted to grow the real economy you would stop QE as it traps liqidity (deflationary long term as asset bubbles are no longer underpinned by collateral). The governments ability to sell debt (finance operations and products) is only possible if banks are willing to buy. Current Tbill shortfalls are due to ongoing bailout of money market funds, which is causing a major upswing in usage of MBS in OTC (outside Fed) repo markets. Overall I love your work but study the mechanics of the system that is. Literally everything I learned in MS in Fin Risk and my MBA is trash - you dont study the real system and that is and that is why Econ PhD's are toilet paper. You also fail to realize the Fed flows to TGA (meaning name of the game is to never have Treasury pay off the nut just coupons, as the Fed and US federal government own the plurality of all US denominated debt (over 33%). Nor do you understand more US denominated debt is generated offshore then domestically as the Fed has zero control over money supply or even the Fed fund rate (which is just the 2 year tbond - that is how Fed 'controls' near end). Its sort of like the wizard of oz - where the many disparate stakeholders behind the curtain vie for policies and meat puppets (jaw boning) that benefit their collective interest. Fed was never meant to be a real central bank.
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  41. If folks in DC were smart (and they are not) - when Tarp 2.0 gets socialized with the US population (as the idiots believe they need to inflate away the debt, instead of selling the trillions of US debt already on the books and updating fiscal models to remove unfunded liabilities) they would focus on sunken capital grants (partnering with private sector) in support of bringing back critical manufacturing to economically depressed (cheap) areas of America, where an updated minimum wage (13 - 15 an hour) could get you a house and a house wife. And yes America has plenty of those types of communities (both urban and rural).
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  42. Their military is trash - the training they provided to Ukraine was hot trash, they dont have a real NCO corp. And your right - they are the massive weak link, which they dont really grasp, and they are ready to get bent over. What they are doing is a decade to late.
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  43. Audit to find and act, later Congress will coedify. Birthright will be his Gaetz, it’s a loss that is red meat to base.
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  44. So much money is flowing from scum like Soros and the ESG mafia - you see it on the local level. They are trying to ruin America's greatest success story.
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  45. Ken Griffin & Soros vs the American people (that is why I am voting for Trump, at best he can annihilate the the US oligarchs - if his team isnt complete dogshit like it was the first time around). This will be my first time voting for him. And you are wrong on interpretations, CO does not have the right (regardless of bribes received) to kick off candidates they dont like.
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  46. And its much more complicated - Russia, Syria, Iran, Saud, Israel and non state actor (political parties, terrorist wings, etc) - as all actors have a spectrum of legitimacy and authority. 2 realities that matter most external to US: 1) israel will annex north of Khan Yunis 2) Israel will do more to embrace and support Zellensky (as Wagner was involved in training and maybe as well as supplies - those referenced new TTP's. Internally - this is the beginning of the end of the progressive woke mind virus.
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  47. @ They could lift payroll tax cap, not adjust formula, stop taxing social security, and raise age to 65 to make program solvent and then sell ~3 trillion in tbills to banks and use that 3 trillion to fund large scale industrial and mining investments domestically. With an eye towards robotics, AI, and exploratory mining / off world manufacturing. But alas the swamp is to lazy and corrupt.
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  48. What if Wagner got what they wanted and left, now they wait for a Ukraine breakthrough, while slowly moving pieces into place. And the only defensive tactic Putin and team have is family and friends of Wagner that they were able to acquire. Has anyone seen Gerasimov?
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  49. The only people who were shocked by this are the ones who are woke globalist or those who cant do math. The amount of hatred brewing within Europe is a powder keg. The EU exits will grow - at least in attempts, until violence explodes. Your spot on about US / NAFTA system, 'fortress america' and not just UK will take bad deals to be within her walls.
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  50. on descent, they slow down greatly, they are easy to hit - plus PAC3 can self adjust
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