Comments by "Seven Proxies" (@sevenproxies4255) on "The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters"
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It is exceedingly difficult to be sure.
All I've had to go on so far is applying the more basic military realities to the situation.
Like, I can be pretty sure that Russia isn't "winning" right now. I make this assumption due to several factors. First it's always harder to attack and take territory than it is to defend territory unless the numbers and equipment are ludicriously uneven. Attackers usually have to account for heavy casualties initially, until they manage to break through.
Second, the taskforce that Putin put together for this invasion is relatively small considering the mission they are expected to carry out.
We're talking about a couple hundred thousand troops, expected to take a country with a population in excess of 40 million people, and it's not a "small" country by any stretch either.
That said, nobody can argue that Ukraine is winning either, because while they are dug in and defending, the Russians definitely have mobility on their side.
So the Russians can almost strike at will, at any target they like, but they're facing difficulties in capturing and holding territory for extended periods of time. The Ukrainians can hold territories better, but they can't kick the Russian forces out of the country either.
Note, I make these conclusions based on numbers and equipment alone. I won't even bother with news sources, because the propaganda war on both sides is in full swing so no news reports can really be trusted at all.
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