Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Neither Briton nor the US has operations in the region. It would be madness for them to attempt such a thing because if they were caught it would mean WW3. No if it was a commando operation it probably was Ukrainian forces that have been trained by Britain and America. After all this time Ukraine would need to have such teams in the theater. There has probably been a hundred billion committed to help Ukraine at this point and that would buy a lot of trained Ukrainian commando teams. Russians missile campaign has done very little damage to Ukraines military capabilities.
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  2. Once a population declines it starts to produce economic instability. On top of that China has a debt mountain that would make the Subprime US look good. China has several plates that are spinning at the moment and all it takes is for one plate to fall.
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  3.  @RichardBrubaker  None of the countries you have listed have yet gone through this. There is nothing you have offered that can be used to describe.
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  4. It depends if those extra incorrect female count is in the childbearing years which it most certainly is. So any number you see right now for childbirth is a future projected number that is not real. China may already have a zero child birth rate at a population level and may have so for the last decade.
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  5. Killing of the elderly will not help with the fact China does not have enough young people to maintain their current or previous industrial outputs. China relies upon its export market but that is already starting to shrink and as more workers become less productive because they get too old to do the physical labour that will create economic instability. A 65 year ol concrete worker is not going to be as productive as a 21 year old and that will be replicated throughout the Chinese system in every industry.
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  6. So how do robots buy goods and consume within a society. And better still how does a non existent Chinese automated industrial base help that?
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  7. Storage and transmission is the real issue when it comes to wind energy. It really needs to used on a local loads such as factories and so on. The actual maintenance of offshore wind turbines must be insane and a lot of Enron level accounting is probably taking place. You will hear the term peak energy which is a very clever way of saying that they get enough energy for a short period of time that they then present as being the whole time.
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  8. That is just pure fantasy at best.
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  9. Clean coal, nuclear, natural gas and renewable were it is easy could really make a large difference for many countries. That should have been Germanys' approach but in doing that they would not have had as much success with their manufacturing but they may have then focused on high end value manufacturing that is hard to achieve but the Germans could have done it.
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  10. Domestic solar energy is minimal and the amount of batteries, solar panels and wiring/switching that has to be done just makes no sense. It simply is not a good alternative to micro level anything.
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  11.  @salmacuppini6772  Turkey is hanging over an economic cliff.
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  12.  @oddvardmyrnes9040  "just as the Republicans & the Christian right in the U.S." That is just pure nonsense at best. There is no alliance in America between republicans and Christians.
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  13.  @rodtukker1904  I do not think India supports Russia they are really trying to keep out of it. They do not want to offend Russia nor they do not want to offend the US. If push comes to shove India will probably choose the US and at the same time try not to offend Russia too much.
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  14. I do not think it would be in Sweden's interest to sell them fighter jets. Is suspect the socialists in Sweden will have to abandon the socialists of the Kurdish PKK.
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  15.  @LordRykard9376  The odds of winning the lotto are very low but people still win it.
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  16. Those reactions are just short term and part of politics. If they stuck it out and just went with it then the economic growth from that would satisfy. It looks like Truss and her government are weak like Boris and they take the media as being some sort of oracle when in fact the media is weak.
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  17.  @Ashadow700  The US is not facing inflation because of the extra money being cycled.
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  18.  @ricardomartins286  Germany has no energy to sustain it self at an industrial level, Italy, Spain and France have youth unemployment rates in excess of 20%. The Euro is performing against the dollar the exact same way sterling has. I just no buying the whole EU is doing better. Peter in the video is not even saying that Britain in the EU is better off he is saying that Britain is rudderless as a society in regards as to what it does next. I suspect he simply not that focused on British and EU relationship as both places are going to lag behind the US. The Last time labour was in power it left the UK with an unemployment crisis so unless they are willing to change its policies they will only do worse.
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  19. Excellent video and the length is perfect considering the topic.
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  20. The problem the UK has is that any politician or government that actually tries to do the right thing will find them self in opposition to the media that really have their hands on the steering wheel. The reason why Boris lost control was that he tried to go with what the media was proposing but this ran counter to what various factions wanted but when he played with the various factions the media hounded him out of office. It is a no win situation and would not be so much of a problem if the UK had good demographics and strong industrial output. The next two PM's have more or less fell victim to the media's campaign and until they actually get up on the podium and just tell the public the truth nothing will change. Fear drives modern UK politics.
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  21. If you have a billion people in a population and there is a 50% reduction in that population per generation that means within 5 generations that number will drop to about 130 million people. That does not take into account overlapping generations. If the number is a small number such as say 8% reduction per generation it will go unnoticed for the first few generations but within 5 generations the total population will drop to 680 million and that whole process will also be disguised by the overlapping generations.
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  22. The problem with Russia using nuclear weapons would be that there is no guarantee that Ukraine would surrender if Russia uses low yield tactical warheads and if Russia uses high yield they would completely destroy Ukraine which will not be of use to them and there is also the chance that Ukraine does something really crazy in Russia. Is it 100% certain that Ukraine does not have warheads and that they handed all of them over back when the negotiation's were agreed.
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  23. They are very well understood.
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  24. The problem with Russia has in using Nukes is that Ukrainian forces are spread out and a tactical low yield nuclear weapon is not going take them all out. If they use large yield weapons' to try and destroy Ukraine there is nothing stopping the Ukrainians from doing something just as reckless. Another thing is we do not know if Ukraine has nuclear warheads of their own as there is no guarantee that they gave up all their own warheads. Maybe they have one or two large yeild warheads sitting somewhere in storage encase Russia ever did attempt anything.
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  25. Drones can point by the operator and engagne.
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  26. They just throw numbers at it. In WW2 they had tens of millions of very low quality men who were malnourished and not in a good state of health.
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  27.  @LRRPFco52  All Ukraine would need is the raw materials from the warhead to build their own active system. Ukraine has industry and was part of the USSR industrial military output. The idea that we can guess exactly what exists and does not exist is a fantasy. You have no more clue than what I have in terms of what really happened and what did not. We have no idea what Ukraine is capable of or not. Most certainly if Ukraine is attacked by nuclear warheads they will respond with dirty weapons that is a given.
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  28. But who are Russia going to counter? I have my doubts that Russia does not have enough warheads that are active for full intercontinental exchange with the US. I do not think a low yield weapon will make Ukraine surrender and if Russia goes high yield I suspect that Ukraine will do something crazy as well. There is also no guarantee that Ukraine does not have high yield nuclear weapon that they never handed over in the agreements.
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  29. Many people already know of this but it changes nothing.
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  30.  @DrDude-fp6mr  Most of that will change once the world order starts to change.
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  31.  @JonathanRootD  Nobody is making that claim.
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  32. At one point aluminium was a very rare earth metal and very expensive but once industrial processes started to innovate it became cheaper to the point it is now all around us. At one point it was more valuable per weight than gold.
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  33.  @buybuydandavis  Deep holes are very expensive and not easy to build.
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  34. I always wonder what happened there.
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  35. That electric car has more problems to deal with. The UK, US, Canada, Australia, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Japan and so on will all have access to oil for petrol/gasoline.
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  36.  @VertigoX26  You think Saudi Arabia can defend itself with Russian weapons? You are living in a fantasy world. All the west would need to do to cause the complete collapse of OPEC is to park a few carriers in the mediterranean and off the persian gulf choke points. That would simultaneous cause the collapse of both OPEC, China and India. Clearly the West is not going to do that and OPEC is not stupid enough to cut Europe off. OPEC is free to do what it pleases as long as it is in the margins and the edge of the west. They can cause economic fuel crisis's and things like that but that is it. Embargo Europe and they will find French and British Navies are extremely formidable.
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  37. That is like we have cured you of cancer but here is your new HIV condition.
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  38. Iran cannot even manage how women dress how are they going to do all of that?
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  39. So far the Europeans are saying that it is to stop enriching Russia not to cause their immediate collapse.
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  40. But where do they send it and then do they have the resources to keep those systems pumping if they are not earning?
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  41.  @joeking5679  China cannot even build microchips never mind a missile system that can operate in the pacific and Asia greater naval region. Carrier groups are extremely powerful and densely armed formations that can combat operate over a million square miles of ocean. Just the carrier a lone can combat operate a region of about 1 million square miles of ocean. Hypersonic glide missiles are not going to restrict any of that.
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  42.  @joeking5679  You are in a fantasy world if you think radar would easily track a carrier group.
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  43.  @joeking5679  Britain was fighting with the Japanese in the pacific before the Americans got involved. Japan has a lose agreement with Germany hence why everybody understand its global consequences. FDR understood that and was desperate to get the US to make moves but the public mood at that point was not an aid to him politically it took Pearl Harbor for that to occur. FDR made it very clear to Churchill that his hands were tied politically but he understood the peril.
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  44.  @joeking5679  You are living in a fantasy if you think aircraft carriers mean nothing. They were the back bone of WW2 in the pacific. They dominated naval battles. If you think a country can just fire a hypersonic missile from nowhere and track a US naval group you are in a fantasy world. None of the countries you are alluding has such hypersonic technology so what exactly are you referring to?
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  45. If they get seized it will mean that nobody can trust that system of oil transport. Prices will shoot up world wide over night. Russia will respond and there will be a series of events economically world wide that will create trouble. You probably do not understand any of this. They are not going to be inspecting for food safety on those ships you can be sure.
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  46. What makes you think China is going to pay less?
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  47. If there is a global energy crash you will see real environmental damage then through war, coal mining and cheap rough industries pop up all over the world. The economics of the world will mean all out cultural failure and environmental destruction like you have never seen before.
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  48.  @attilaann2458  That is pure fantasy.
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  49. The US does not have a singular critical infrastructure it has a series of regional, state and county systems. There is no country on earth that could take the whole of that system out and if they attack one part of the system the US will respond with a big large hammer of some sort.
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  50. I assume you are joking.
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