Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Europe is in a better place in Energy than China. The problem for Europe is that they cannot produce its manufactured products namely Germany at prices seen for the last few decades.
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  2. They are backing out over fear not the ability to repay. Once that fear has subsided people may start to pile in again.
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  3.  @hex5874  if they do not care about made in America they will not be given access to the US market. It is that simple and will end up where they used to be as imported cars cost more than American cars. If BMW want to sell half a million cars in the US every year they will need to get their finger out and the same applies to Mercedes.
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  4.  @yarmonymatoid1562  "low biodiversity" What on earth does that even mean?
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  5. None of the developing countries actually have a true market economy. They tend to be top down economies controlled through special political panel. You could hand many of them 100 billion tomorrow and they simply could not do anything with it.
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  6. Deglobalization started to slow down in the mid 2010s but is now going into reverse but that process is going to start accelerating in the next 3 years.
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  7. The books lay out a more detailed case.
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  8. Crypto has value but trying to establish what that value is will be a difficult task. It is about to become a trading currency for many in the developing world as they will need a functioning currency of sorts.
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  9. Once a population declines it starts to produce economic instability. On top of that China has a debt mountain that would make the Subprime US look good. China has several plates that are spinning at the moment and all it takes is for one plate to fall.
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  10.  @AJourneyOfYourSoul  Why did so many vote for Trudeau? That question is easy to answer most voters are doing so by a public image they see through the medium of TV.
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  11.  @terryfaugno9242  The super tankers for LNG cannot produce the same levels of gas as a pipe line. Germany is going to see a 8 fold increase in the energy input cost of its manufacturing.
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  12. If it goes from freezing to dry to warm fast it will lessen the effects of the mud season.
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  13. You are discussing a field that took 70 years to play out and then criticizing a guy for giving you a 70 year window for the next big era. Do you not see the irony in your statement?
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  14. Russia does not need anything like that even though it is not beyond their ability to stage in a really obvious fashion. Putin has the ability to call for war but while he may have the back of the elites in Russia there maybe a refusal throughout their system.
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  15. Russia wars are not six month jobs and can carry on for decades. They involve lots of death and destruction to the opponents and to Russian people. All Russian men will be forced to serve in that war or face being lined up against a wall. Russia could in theory use nuclear weapons on Ukraine and there would not be much that the west would do about it. Long before that would even come about Russia would just throw several million bodies at Ukraine. Unless Russia collapses politically this is the pathway that will play out.
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  16. I suppose if you are looking at it from a communist point of view commons sense would not make sense.
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  17. The West just wants a simply relationship with Turkey that is not to sensational. If Turkey was a bit more cleaver it would stay completely of the Wests radar. Turkey can stand up for its self when it needs to but targeting all kurds because there is one group of kurds that are a danger is not sensible or good optics. Turkey could negotiate some sort of deal with most kurds (maybe not all).
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  18. South America was flooded by USSR sponsored programs back in the cold war. Every cold war era civil war in south America was sponsored by the USSR and it programs and then when locals started to rise and push them out the commie agents started crying about how they were right wing and all that sort of good propaganda stuff.
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  19. Saudi Arabia has an enormous amount of arms that they bought from Europe and America. We are talking orders above what their own forces require to go head to head with Iran. They are clearly preparing for a proxy war. They have near to 400 fighter aircraft that are cutting edge and have put enormous investment into training their airforce and have done this over several decades. While their force would probably not be good at conquering a technological military opponent it would be more than a match to cancel what Iran has in zealot forces. Then there is the fact that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been building their military partnerships for some time and are now about to enter phase two on that front.
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  20. I think the guy that people call a journalist was assassinated because he may have been more than a journalist. Well that is the speculation anyway.
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  21.  @pierregibson6699  The Cartels took control of the drug trade in the US. It is common knowledge that they are the biggest gangs in the prisons and on the streets in many cities. That does not mean there are no other gangs but they do not have dominance. This is not about norml crime like burglary, violent assaults and so on. It is about street gang culture. And it is one of the reason groups like MS13 were never able to fully control the streets.
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  22. Still does not mean their troops can easily wage war in winter. He is not saying there will be no exchange between them but the big battles are coming down the line.
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  23. What if they use Nuclear weapons. What then?
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  24.  @theantiantichrist  If Russia uses nuclear weapons against the US guess what will happen the US will use them against Russia. Russia better hope that their full arsenal of warheads are still active after 50 years of storage.
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  25. 6 month break for the Chinese economy is a big deal. Especially in a just in time economic market place.
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  26. It will not just be the Germans that will suffer the whole of Europe and much further out.
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  27. Germany has two major problems going off at the same time it has lost its low energy productivity and has an aging workforce. On top of that Germany has to now quadruple its defence budget just to look a little bit scary to the Russians encase they decide to invade the rest of Europe. Germany does have about €300 billion in reserve to try and deal with these issues. Those in Germany in the know understood all of this when the invasion happened hence why they all freaked out.
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  28. It is a tricky one .
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  29. The US is a thousand times more powerful than France.
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  30.  @ElementaryWatson_fafo  It is 100% supply chain related. Machine parts, tools, raw materials, energy, labour, logistics and production output have all been restricted for 2 full years. That means now as a buyer if you go out and try to purchase anything it is in short supply. Shutdown economies on a global scale for a year and then restricting them for a further year has caused the supply of everything to be restricted. You simply cannot get anything in the quantities that pre pandemic supplies. Even the number of houses has dropped because the number being developed has imploded. Every country on earth right now is facing these issues. The idea that you think this has been caused by printing up money is ridiculous and it really is just feeding into your anti federal reserve mentality. Food world wide now is at levels that will cause famine. Several countries are dangerously low on fuel supplies. The market for fertilizer has fallen of a cliff and pesticides through a combination of regulations and manufacturing is at very high prices.
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  31. In part but what many leave out is the fact that the US uses QE not to pay debts or to create economic growth that is just the story that is put out there. The reason the US does this is due to the fact there is not enough currency in the US economy because the dollar is being sucked out of the US. So some of that QE is used to help keep the international dollar demand well funded but also to ensure that there is a supply within the economy. World stability would collapse if there was not enough US dollar out there.
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  32. Even if the US helped the Chinese economy to get up and running it would not be enough to catch up this christmas so there goes your conspiracy theory.
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  33. That is just as bad in terms of belief systems. It is a theoretical conjecture that is always just around the corner as well.
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  34.  @ianhollands1641  They were not workable scale reactors and were experimentation systems.
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  35. Russia cannot even manufacture simple control systems to be able to project in modern war. Russia might be able to pound Ukraine into the ground through pure physical force and scale but that will be as far as they get.
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  36. Fair competition? What is fair about foreign brands manufacturing their component in slave labor camps in Asia and then taking the components into the US and pretending that it is all legitimate. .
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  37. Modern media is terrible.
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  38. They did not beat the Germans withy anything. Germany wiped out he Russia military but it was fighting on three fronts and simply did not have the troop numbers to enable that or the supplies. Germanys' issue in WW2 was that they could not provide their troops with enough supplies and they ran out of fuel.
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  39. Collapse is still collapse no matter how good you think the level of collapse is.
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  40. Hemp is not cotton so you need to end that fantasy and stop smoking it. Hemp has its place which the US uses at an industrial level.
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  41. The Byzantine's where no where near as powerful as what the US is today relative to their world. They were a shadow of the Roman Empire but they still had tactics that would enable them to move chess pieces around the board when need be. Even the Venetians were capable of doing that because their rich trade economy enable them to buy armies. The main difference between them and the US is that the US has a monstrous standing army that could be made 10 times larger in a major war if need be. What caused the venetian fall was that their mercenary armies were not loyal to the homeland and could be bought by other interested parties.
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  42. The whole Dick Cheney thing is a left wing fantasy and a tool of politics. Cheney played an important part but was not in control of a figure head.
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  43.  @erikcastillo2454  You do not think Mexico is about to face a crisis?
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  44. I do not think it would be in Sweden's interest to sell them fighter jets. Is suspect the socialists in Sweden will have to abandon the socialists of the Kurdish PKK.
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  45. Germany is a classical case of culture delusional thinking.
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  46. You missed what he was talking about when discussing Trump. The wall that Trump built required roads for construction of the wall so that contractors, machines and materials could get to the point of the wall construction site. That meant those very inhospitable places that were in effect desert that were very difficult to cross all of a sudden had a road system running through them that smugglers could use.
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  47. It is not just the amount of money but the demand on the total number of products. We have had two years of market restrictions layered on top of a growing economic output which has meant that parts of the market are bursting while others are doing fine. There is no shortage of food in the US but there are issues in certain locations on the amount of houses, machine parts and raw materials.
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  48. Taiwan has a top notch naval defence system that is of much greater volume than what Ukraine has. Taiwan also has a cutting edge air defence system and an airforce that is leagues ahead of what China has.
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  49. That one manufacturer is a complete EV manufacturer and is not producing standard ECE so that is why it is not on the list.
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  50. When inflation starts it will even affect things that have good supply. Inflation at it heart affects the money supply.
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