Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. He needs to do UK and Ireland. Not the major players in the world from a Geopolitics action point of view but they are on the outskirts of Europe and are integrated at some level with the US and EU.
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  2. Nonsense.
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  3. Absolute nonsense.
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  4. It is true of all Russian industry.
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  5. Russia has a major problem in that it does not know if its nuclear arsenal is operational. Most of the war heads are based on 50 year old mechanical systems. While they may operational warheads that could be used for one off operations it does not mean they have enough for full nuclear exchange with the US.
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  6. Nope that is just fantasy. Inflation ran away in the US because it simply at that stage did not have a fully functioning economy. It was a dependent economic entity of the British Crown meaning it simply was not functioning at its true economic output levels nor did it have any really ability to impose policy at either a currency level or government entity level. These were some of the driving factors of the revolutionary war in it is self. Currency manipulation was not the reason for the inflation.
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  7. Depends on where their gold ends up.
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  8. Not every country in Europe is a member of NATO.
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  9. The feds cannot be blamed for every business in America. There are thousands of banks in the US and some of them will go under. It is just the natural order of business.
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  10. It may help with aid programs but it will not be enough to off set the eastern food collapse.
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  11. Warren Buffett did not get out of airlines for the fun of it.
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  12. He is not. Twitter will become something different from its current state.
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  13. I think the whole chat GPT has been way over played. It is the only thing many people keep repeating to demonstrate why the robots are about to take over.
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  14. Saudi Arabia has tens of billions of US equipment sitting in storage.
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  15. Nuclear is not the solution that people desire. It has its place but it is complex and also has supply side issues.
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  16. It is not a pipe dream and will happen but must do so through innovation and research. Governments cannot just implement it through decree it has to be earned. The EU is a culture of decree where governments make pledges that they simply have no right to be making as they do not have the ability nor even the vision to engage in such endeavors.
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  17. The problem with most of this is that everything is still theoretical. Russia has not get pushed it self to all out war culture. Russia may collapse before it gets to that point of being able to get to total war.
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  18. Turkey main problem is the PKK and they could cut a deal there if they were wise and gain more points with the European countries and also allow them to further negotiate with the US. The biggest problem Turkey has is that Erdoğan exerts too much power and his current policies have driven inflation to the point that it could cause their economy to collapse. Turkey has the exact same problem that China has in that there is no genuine political alternative because the opposition has been taken out. Turkey may even face collapse before the NATO issue comes to ahead.
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  19. The US never supported him against USSR as that group was never involved in that fight. They came much later and were terrorist's at heart.
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  20. Automation will do remarkable things and it will transform the world over the next 20 years and it will follow the Ray Kurzweil trajectory but none of that will be a magic bullet for countries with bad demographics and industrial output that is based on bad foundations. America will go through an automation revolution as will many other countries but it will not impact the world for another 20 to 30 years. By the time that technology is there places like China and Russia will break up into about 50 different countries.
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  21. Automation is going to develop on through the crisis period but it will not save many countries who simply do not have a good economic or demographic structure. in 20 years time most of what is produced will be automated, most homes will have automation, small local producers will have automation and we will see working humanoid style robots. None of that means that places that are entering a population decline can just magically automate their problems away. Innovation in technology is not just silicon valley.
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  22. The what on earth are you talking about in terms of the F-35.
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  23. What made you think such a thing?
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  24. Nuclear weapons would not be as effective as people think. Delivering them across distance would be the first challenge that many countries would not be capable of performing. Then trying to get such a missile active in the combat zone that is of a scale that would damage the opposition would be even more complicated for the vast majority of countries. Pretty much any country could set of a nuclear detonation for the cameras but trying to do that in warfare is of a different level of complexity.
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  25. Just so that Peter understands this Christmas is a festive period which means it carries right up to the new year and then winds down after New Years Day. It is sort of like demographics with 20 to 40 where all the action takes place and after that it is all winding down.
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  26. There is not a lot to say about Australia and what he says about Australia is that it will be fine but it needs to start having more children. Australia over the next 25 years is probably going to have a boom because it has more 20 to 40 year olds than 50 to 70 year olds but does have a lower number of under 20 year olds. It will be interesting to see if the next generation wants to have lots of children and if it does Australia will have a bright future. Areas that Australia could really ramp it up is manufacturing and value added market practices. That means taking all those deep raw material reserves and turning them into products and using the coal, oil and gas for industrial energy. Autralia has a potentially large consumer market just waiting to expand.
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  27. It is more expensive to produced cold rolled steel but it is easier to process for higher quality steel.
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  28. Cold Rolled steel that is sourced from processed iron and is more expensive and is easier to make make higher quality variants. Who are some of you trying to kid here with your comments?
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  29. Yes that is what he is saying. It is the higher quality iron and steel production at a national level that the US imports and processes. The US still produces its own from ground to foundry but it does not dominate the market but that is about to change in the near to medium future as there is going to be a reshoring and build out when US industry cannot access the same volumes.
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  30. Most Russians are clueless on the war but there is bound to be stories getting home as to what is happening.
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  31. There will be a large number of people that will not get through it to have that natural immunity. And because the virus is fast spreading the deaths will appear over a short period of time. Flu is not as fast spreading so it means that the deaths are spread out over time so that most people can get treatment when they present with issues. Imagine a hospital that is full to the brim with sick people and a person shows up with covid and is in the middle of an asthma attack Vitamin D is a great help to many people but there is deficiency levels in China that have never been addressed. .
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  32. Germany used to be Prussia.
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  33. You think Spain is in the economic standing to do that?
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  34. US has a large number of them but is not processing them. Places like Australia and Canada also have rare earths but do not have a well developed market place.
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  35. They are not raising interest rates to stave off a recession. They expect that recession to happen as a certainty. They are raising interest rates to stop inflation. And their primary reason for doing that is because once inflation starts it can be very difficult to stop and can play out of decades. In 1970 the US inflation rate was about 6% and by 1980 it was at 14%. With there being periods during that of peak inflation hitting 24%.
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  36. Australia has been in a very restrictive property market for the last 25 years. The housing stock in places like sydney was very low in the year 2000 and it has never been address and the amount of regulations restricting development has increased.
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  37. The Balloon shows how desperate China really is. Balloons are 1950s level technology and were around in war for longer than that. What this really demonstrates is that Chinese intelligence through satellites and aerial surveillance is several decades behind the other players. But why is anybody surprised by this?
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  38. Storing oil above ground is complex and building underground capacity is very expensive and beyond Russian industrial capabilities.
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  39. Dollar is just a name and was never a structural natural market device of trade. No two countries dollars are alike.
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  40. Trump did some good administrative work and some good policy work but his divisive character that he was playing really damaged his ability to function as president at the executive level. Even some of his own appointments worked against him.
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  41. Russian culture has a desired to have an empire that stretches from the Bering Sea to the Atlantic. In their mind that is the only way they can be safe and secure in their position. Russia has always had that desire going back centuries. Whether it was the Tsars or Salin it always had one mind set of expansion. If Ukraine falls Europe need not be under no other impression that Russia is going for broke. Russia will not settle with just plugging the gap at Poland.
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  42. There is not enough young people out there for many of these countries to import.
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  43. No. It has to do with staying on America's good side.
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  44. US has no shortage of fertilizer production as it is a by-product of oil and gas industry.
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  45. The problem is what is to stop Russia from then invading Europe? That is one of the real reason so many European leaders are freaked out.
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  46. US prices difference in sectors are different from the likes of Taiwan and that applies vice versa. Unless there is a common factor such as component or raw commodity that both regions source from. The US does most of its trade internally with only about 5% reliant on international.
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  47.  @gausselim1474  It is unfortunate because there are going to be companies that make good products that are going to fall into decline. We are going to see a few slew of kodak's popping up.
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  48. European countries are not suppose to use deficit spending. Many of them simply do not have the financial power to carry out deficit spending to plug the problem because they are already in deficit trying to support their welfare state programs. Gone are the days of having a large cake and eating what they want they are going to have to make sacrifice's such as not having energy or not having pharma.
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  49. It is more than just greens which are bad enough on their own. Germany has built its economic output on that cheap energy but at the same time has a demographic crisis on the horizon. So even if they could bring a solution to the table for energy they will then be walking straight into another massive issue.
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  50. Europe is like a drug addict that is out of shape, knows it needs to do something but just continues on with its old life style.
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