Hearted Youtube comments on Mark Takacs (@MarkTakacs-u1w) channel.

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  39. A fast way to lose a war is to lie to yourself. The Russians turned what should have been a quick war into a bloody slog by lying to themselves about the Ukrainian will to fight. Had Russia taken the war seriously from the outset, mobilized 300-400,000 reservists to fill out the infantry squads before their initial invasion they likely would have won the war by the Summer or Fall of 2022. Likewise the Ukrainians, or more accurately their Western backers, lied to themselves about Russian defensive prowess and capacity for force regeneration and wasted any chance for Ukraine to reclaim her 1991 borders by hopelessly pursuing a counter-offensive in Summer 2023 against the most prepared and fortified positions of the Russians in Zaporizhia, believing that the Russians would just give way and fold as they had in Kherson and Kharkov. That counter-offensive cost not only mountains of equipment but irreplaceable experienced personnel, especially infantry, whose absence has been sorely felt the last year and a half. Now both sides are in a slugging match trying to force each other into exhaustion to get the best negotiating position. The Ukrainians are doing this by inflicting damage on the Russian oil and gas sector that funds the war(and the leadership's lifestyle) and inflicting more losses of men and equipment than the Russians can replace. Meanwhile the Russians are using their strategic bombing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure to both degrade their productive capacity and render Ukrainian statehood untenable, with the secondary goal being a cascade collapse of the Ukrainian line as soldiers dessert in order to look after loved ones. With this in mind the Ukrainian leadership is lying to itself if they think Kursk gives them a better negotiating position. What would have been a better use of the elite and mobile brigades devoted to Kursk would be to use them as a counterattacking force, to plug up breaches in the Ukrainian line, forcing the Russians to mount more costly assaults to gain less ground. As the way Ukraine achieves a favorable outcome is Russia exhausting her available reserves of men and equipment as the regime is unwilling to risk future Russian security and regime survival by eroding her economic and demographic foundations. If Moscow doesn't believe it can make progress they will cut their losses and try again in ten years. That's probably the best Ukraine can hope for now.
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