Comments by "Nicholas Conder" (@nicholasconder4703) on "Jake Broe"
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Jake, I am not surprised with what happened. Trump is a malignant narcissist, and anyone who doesn't bow and scrape to him, or crosses him, or gets him into trouble, is his personal enemy. Full stop. Zelensky is the reason why Trump was impeached for the first time back in 2020, and I doubt Trump has forgiven Zelensky or forgotten about it. Trump has just been waiting to drop the hammer, like the petulant bully he is. Zelensky not selling half his country to Trump, when Trump figured he had the upper hand, was probably the last straw. Someone with a spine to stand up to him is something that Trump hates more than anything. If he wasn't going to do something against Ukraine, why did he pick J.D. Vance as VP?
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@felixungar2301 First, I did say "based on Zelensky's comments", so I am taking that with a grain of salt. Second, considering the amateurish way the Russians have been advancing, some of the intercepted cell phone transcripts, the documented armor losses, etc., I tend to think Russian losses are probably higher than the NATO estimates. Remember, those number represent their trained military, and conscripts, not untrained civilians. It also does not reflect the fact you need to double that number to include soldiers who have been injured so severely that they can no longer fight (based on WW2 statistics). The limited scale and scope of the recent Russian attacks also suggests that the Russian casualties are higher than NATO estimates as well. If they had lost only about one-eighth of their army, as the high end NATO numbers suggest, they would still be able to conduct much larger operations than they have been.
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Jake, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine launches an offensive this winter. The ground will be hard enough to support tanks, and Ukraine will have several advantages:
1) Ukraine has great winter gear courtesy of NATO, Russian's winter gear is, based on video evidence, bad. This will tend to keep the Russians in the villages and other buildings, while Ukraine will be able to easily move around the countryside, encircling and isolating said villages,
2) The nights are longer. Ukraine has night vision gear, while Russia does not. This means that Ukraine can launch night attacks of longer duration (up to 15 hours night, 10 of which is actual nighttime and a further 3 is considered "nautical twilight"),
3) Ukraine should be getting more heavy equipment, if it is not already in Ukraine, and
4) Russian losses means more conscripts, and more poorly trained men. In addition, the de-modernization of the Russian army means that Ukrainian attacks should be more effective.
It should also be remembered that two of the most important Russian offensives during WW2 occurred during winter, the Battle of Moscow in 1941 and battles around Stalingrad (Operations Uranus, Little Saturn and the Voronezh-Kharkov offensives) in winter of 1942-1943. In both cases these battles started around November or December, and wrapped up around February.
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