Comments by "seneca983" (@seneca983) on "KaiserBauch" channel.

  1. "But what if the absence of such civilizations is an insight by itself?" That's doubtful. That kind of social organization is more possible today due to things like modern technology.
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  2. Is it common for the ethnic Russians and Kazakhs in Kazakhstan to intermarry?
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  3. 36:22 In English, "Shiite" is an acceptable alternative for "Shia", though it seems less common, so you seemingly didn't make a mistake here.
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  4. "The same people who say that this won't happen are the same people who thought that the Roman Empire would never fall." You're wrong. They're different people. They didn't even live in the same times.
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  5. "it took the Spanish an awful long time to get rid of the Moors and reclaim their nation" In that case Iberia had been (mostly) conquered by a foreign military force. Then it was reconquered by Christian kingdoms. I don't think it works as an analogy.
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  6.  @organismseven3700  "The conquering foreign military force was comprised of a very different ethnic group to that of the native Spanish." My point was that there isn't any government or ruler set up by conquerors that one could start a military campaign against. Therefore I don't think the Reconquista works very well as an analogy.
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  7.  @asdasdasddgdgdfgdg  "Saudi Arabia has thrown out several millions of African migrants a couple of years ago." Note that these have been mostly undocumented migrants, or at least they are the ostensible target of this policy though they might not be the only ones affected. Deporting people who are legally in a country and have been for a large number of years is a very different matter. If those people have been in the country since birth and/or have citizenship then things become even more difficult.
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  8.  @jameskamotho7513  Thanks for the info.
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  9. Actually, I have to amend my previous comment a bit. Apparently the Haredim men attending religious studies do receive some kind of stipend from the Israeli state so their women are not the only ones supporting them. I have to still comment that I don't think they have any kind of ban on work as such and many do work. However, many do spend considerable amount of time in the religious studies. Often that doesn't for their whole life but after they tend to be disadvantaged in the labor market and unemployment and poverty are much more common than for secular and moderately religious Israelis.
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  10. ​ @NilfgardianNationalist  I think those with East Jerusalem residency status also have a special right to apply for Israeli citizenship though only something like 5% of them have acquired citizenship. Some may be turned away by the language requirement but my understanding is that a majority chooses not to apply to show support for the Palestinian cause including getting East Jerusalem to be the capital of the Palestinian state.
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  11.  @BeachandHills-hb2pq  "You were a Republic and those who fight get the vote." You're just stating that without giving a justification for why that should be the case.
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  12. What falls under that 5% then? Just curious.
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  13. 15:07 "Tax your industry out of competitiveness and then try to help them by imposing duties on imports, genius." I don't get what your complaint here is. Greenhouse emissions are harmful and there is a need to reduce them. That reduction is hardly free but the damage to mankind from the emissions is greater. Imposing a monetary cost on emissions is the most efficient way to reduce emissions because it eliminates least useful emissions first. Also, duties may be in order to prevent European consumption from just producing similar emissions through other countries.
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  14.  @DerpyRedneck  The description of regression fallacy that I can find says :"It assumes that something has returned to normal because of corrective actions taken while it was abnormal. This fails to account for natural fluctuations." That has nothing to do with what I talked about as I didn't mention any kind of action but merely making inferences based on observation. Whatever you call the mathematics I presented doesn't change its rigor. If you think it's wrong, feel free to point out any errors. By the laws of probability, absence of evidence is necessarily evidence of absence (though it may typically be only weak evidence). You can't avoid that. If some observation is evidence for a hypothesis then observing the opposite must evidence against. Otherwise you're just being inconsistent. That's what we mean when we say that scientific theories have to be falsifiable. You can't say that you can only observe evidence for a theory but not against it.
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  15.  @schou43  And I think this ceremonial name is also supposed to be used as a posthumous name so e.g. Hirohito should be called Showa since he's not alive anymore. I think posthumous names are some kind of Buddhist tradition.
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  16. 10:00 I wonder why in that chart Finland is spelled the German way (with 2 Ns) while all the other country names are in English.
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  17. "Austria is part of central europe - i'am not going to discuss this." Why isn't it called "Zentralreich" then? Checkmate! (JK)
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  18.  @manofkent6560  Is it? I've never heard anyone call e.g. the Japanese PoC.
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  19. 6:45 I have to strongly disagree with you here. After the 2008 financial crisis there was IMHO too little money printing. Inflation was below target (and here the ECB did much worse than the Fed, though the Fed also didn't do all that good). The pandemic stimulus may have been too much, at least in the US, but that was a fairly short lived phenomenon and can't explain most of the house prices. More importantly, I don't think your logic at 7:05 holds. More money should mean price increases for everything that you pay with money. Thus the prices of also consumer goods and services should also increase. Similarly, wages should increase too (in nominal, not real, terms). More dollars and euros can mean that you have to pay more dollars or euros for a given house but I don't see how it could cause the ratio between the amount of dollars/euros workers are paid and the amount of dollars/euros you have to pay for a house to shift.
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  20. Can be but it's much less likely.
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  21. @Itsme Alex Pretty no one alive in Europe has been actually ruled by a monarch. Some European countries have ceremonial figurehead monarchs, some don't, but it's unlikely to have a big influence on present-day people.
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  22.  @mysterioanonymous3206  "South east Asia generally is mostly Buddhist" I don't think it is. Indonesia and Malaysia are predominantly Muslim, the Philippines is predominantly Christian. Yes, there are Buddhist countries too but their populations don't compare to that of Indonesia, the 4th biggest country by population on this planet.
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  23. And apparently in Slovakian Slovakia is called "Slovensko" which sounds even more like Slovenia.
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  24. 18:10 As a minor nitpick, I think you used the wrong word here since "superfluous" means "extra"/"unnecessary".
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  25.  @ivancho5854  Yeah, but I don't think they're going to go that far.
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  26.  @danhubert-hx4ss  France will almost certainly not do that.
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  27.  @captainvanisher988  It is. On the other hand, most places on earth besides sub-Saharan Africa have undergone the demographic transition. It's possible that it's going to happen there as well in the foreseeable future and eventually replace the problem of riotous youth with the problem of burdensome elderly population.
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  28.  @EmmaKing30  Thanks for the info.
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  29.  @volodimirivanevko9238  "a mother was position of respect, rather the derision we see today" I don't really see such derision today.
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  30. "The establishment is even older than those who wish for change." What country are you from? The US? For some reason in the US the political class is very old whereas in many European countries (that are older on average) politicians are much younger.
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  31. @Henry Hudson I don't think there is a ban as such but from what I've read only about 50% of male Haredim in Israel work and the other half just studies religious texts instead of earning money.
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  32. They don't. It's just a silly conspiracy theory.
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  33.  @nguyenhs9800  Probably Bill Gates.
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  34.  @Maytrx  Well, the BLM protests/riots were a thing. Anything much beyond that seems unlikely. Remember that US Blacks don't have that much higher fertility than the US on average (and they're behind Hispanics AFAIK).
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  35. "It is fascinating how little momentum there is within Canada for [...] nativist policy" What would nativist policy be in the case of Canada? A fairly small portion of the population there is native.
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  36.  @chico9805  The ECHR is not an EU institution.
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  37.  @chico9805  I don't see how it's de facto either.
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  38. "we need to mandatory viagra in water supply eu needs to do this not because it's easy but because it's hard !" Well, "it" will certainly be hard after taking Viagra! <badum tss>
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  39.  @DerpyRedneck  It's not a fallacy but a mathematical inevitability and I can give you a proof. Suppose you have a hypothesis A. Then some kind of observation B is evidence for it. You believe A with some prior probability P(A). Now the probability of A conditional on B, i.e. P(A|B) (posterior probability) must be greater than P(A), i.e. P(A|B)>P(A) which also means that P(A|B)/P(A)-1>0. Now, we mark this evidence not being observed with ¬B. If that's evidence against A it would mean that P(A|¬B)<P(A). Does that follow from the preceding? Yes, it does. By the law of total probability P(A)=P(A|B)P(B)+P(A|¬B)P(¬B). If we divide both sides by P(A) we get 1=(P(A|B)/P(A))P(B)+(P(A|¬B)/P(A))P(¬B). Observe that P(B)+P(¬B)=1 so we can replace the left-hand side with that and we get P(B)+P(¬B)=(P(A|B)/P(A))P(B)+(P(A|¬B)/P(A))P(¬B). Subtract P(B) and P(¬B) from both sides and simplify using common factors. Then we get 0=(P(A|B)/P(A)-1)P(B)+(P(A|¬B)/P(A)-1)P(¬B). Now, because P(B), P(¬B), and P(A|B)/P(A)-1 are all positive, P(A|¬B)/P(A)-1 must be negative or the expression could not equal zero. Thus P(A|¬B)<P(A).
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  40.  @Owlbear-v5c  There's no separate "other way around". The original comment didn't explicitly say anything about causation to one direction or another but simply made a claim about correlation (which is symmetric unlike causality). Just look at the wording: "No society in history has advanced much and had women's rights" [emphasis added]. The "and" here on its face means just correlation, not causation. Of course, the comment probably wanted to also imply causation (to a particular direction) but that doesn't really matter because even the explicitly claimed correlation doesn't seem to be there.
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  41.  @kaiserbauch9092  That's true but I would say that net effect is still (temporarily) negative Russia's military strength.
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  42. 23:50 What do the percentages on this map mean?
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  43.  @TarlanT  That's interesting but doesn't really seem to be related to my question, which was about intermarriage between different ethnic groups in Kazakhstan.
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  44.  @maxh7637  OK, that makes sense.
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  45. Do matrilinear societies have more deadbeats?
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  46.  @GigaNietzsche  At least in the current day, more patriarchal societies seem to be doing less well than less patriarchal ones.
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  47.  @marcmanolache2106  "One of the main reasons why men are graduating from college less than women is because they're addicted to porn and video games." Is there evidence for this?
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  48. What would it be in 2100 if not a country? Several countries? A part of the US? Something else?
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  49.  @ItsMeTyler  Being a part of the US doesn't sound that much worse than being a separate country so I wouldn't count that as especially unlucky.
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  50.  @ItsMeTyler  "Inevitably we will be..." I think claiming something like that as "inevitable" you're not appreciating the uncertainties in long-term prediction enough.
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