Comments by "The Zero Line" (@The_ZeroLine) on "Jake Broe"
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No one’s been talking about this, but I am nearly certain 🇺🇦’s main offensive will be directly south of Kherson city in the desert + steppe whose terrain is actually better for tanks/armor when wet. There are no natural barriers, no towns or villages from which to form defensive positions, no natural choke points, etc. And forming dynamic, mobile defensive maneuvers is hard for a well trained army. So, basically impossible for the RFAF. Ukraine can do an absolute thunder run a la 🇺🇸 in Iraq.
They’ve been given specialized pontoon bridges from US and other allies. There is also a route which doesn’t require going over the Dnipro as well. Penetrating this deep into Kherson also puts every naval base within easy range of Ukrainian weapons. So, Russia would be forced to move their ships out of Crimea, which would allow Ukraine to resume full scale export of grain.
I’ve written an analysis of this option, which I’ve held back since it didn’t seem Russia was even considering this option seriously. Now it’s getting too late for them to really to do anything to majorly adjust to this. So, I’ll likely put it up this week.
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It’s game over for Russia if 🇺🇦 can setup a pontoon bridge to get armor over the Dnipro as there’s no way to defend southern Kherson’s interior, which is all desert steppe w/no terrain features that can be used as defensive positions let alone points at which an enemy can be funneled into a choke point AND they’ll also be able to attack the Surovikin line from the rear or or bypass them all together rendering it useless.
So, it’s just a thunder run all the way to the edge of Crimea. Even better, the steppe’s surface is all sandstone which only gets FIRMER when wet, making it a perfect natural highway for armored vehicles.
Yes, it’s a big if, but remember it is being made feasible by: a) Ukraine crippling Russia’s lines of communications (you can’t defend if you don’t have munitions), b) almost zero defense in depth across the river, c) Russia won’t have the luxury of just sitting back and taking non-stop artillery shots as HIMARS outranges ALL Russian artillery + Ukraine will have GLSDB by Oct., which is going to be as nearly as big of a game changer as when Ukraine first got HIMARS and d) Russian troops in Kherson are purely mobiks in many areas, which is why Russia is trying to now rotate in experienced soldiers and rotation is a huge vulnerability itself and it will just weaken the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut fronts anyway.
I think the beginning of the Thunder Run to the Crimean border will start in the fall.
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