Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Lei's Real Talk" channel.

  1. If China had not singled out Australia for its wrath, would AUKUS have ever happened? I don't think so. China is turning the world against it. Japan is becoming an enemy, withdrawing its industry, increasing defense spending, and strengthening its alliances. China is creating its own hell.
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  2. As China defines itself as an enemy to the United States, do you really think the US will allow Chinese owned enterprises to behave in a way counter to its interests?? That is not how governments work -- especially the US government.
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  3. The Empire State Building in New York is 85 years old. The Auditorium Building in Chicago is 124 years old. The Pantheon in Rome is about 1,900 years old. The Forbidden City in Beijing is 500+ years old (I think). Why do the buildings in China last only 30 years?? Why is that done?? No other country would stand for that. Even Imperial China would not stand for it. The CCP has used graft and corruption to line their pockets and steal from the entire nation of China. At some point, the buildings will fall, and the graft will no longer be able to be hidden or denied. I wonder what the CCP will do then?
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  4. For me, the main concern of China should be Russian-type sanctions being imposed if (when?) China invades Taiwan. Like Russia, China would be hit hard, and have difficulty conducting a war against Taiwan. Like Russia, China would likely lose.
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  5. If the US had done this to China's companies, China would interpret it as an act of war. But, if they do it to themselves, it is an act of faith in Communist doctrine.
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  6. Good analysis of how CCP leaders think. The process for taking over the US is doomed to failure. Their "expert" on the US is really an ignoramus who knows little of the US, its people, or its character. The major flaw, though, I think is that China's strategy of weakening the US by engaging with it, will also change China. Even today, China is not what it was in 1970. I don't think the Chinese will meekly suffer now, like they did then. The CCP has sown the seeds of their own destruction.
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  7. If China attacks Taiwan, it must be understood that there are much bigger issues than whether China controls Taiwan or not. If China takes Taiwan, then China will control the South China Sea --- THAT is a much bigger problem, let me explain, IF China controls the SCS, then China will control the maritime trade of many countries in the region. Philippines, Thailand, Vietname, ROK, Japan, Indonesia, India and others use it for a huge percentage of their trade. Some of them can be reduced to vassal states to China, since China will control so much of their economies. THAT is the bigger issue. The US, Japan, and others CANNOT allow China to hold countries hostage.
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  8.  @unconventionalideas5683  Hard to say. But, in WW2 and Korean wars, both Russia and China used human wave tactics. Neither minded slaughtering their own troops. If you look at the Ukraine war, it seems Russia still approaches war that way. In the Korean War, China did fight the US to a draw, but at what human cost??
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  9. Uhhh, didn't capitalism bring wealth to China, and raise hundreds of millions out of poverty?? So, if they get rid of capitalism, do they intend to go back to Maoist China?? Do they intend to go back to starvation, destitution, and misery? I guess so.
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  10. Minor note: "corps" is pronounce "core", not "corpse" Corpse is a dead body, not a military unit.
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  11.  @LeisRealTalk  We have many words borrowed from France, like a military "corps", and retain the French habit of not pronouncing some letters. Gauche = Go - sh niche = nee-sh chic = sheek
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  12.  @LeisRealTalk  BTW..corps and corpse both come from the latin "corpus", or body. One is a body of soldiers, the other a dead body.
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  13.  @drumpfdon760  A researcher at the University of Wisconsin looked at reported births in China in 2000. Then he looked at number of students enrolled in school in 2015. There was a shortage, which when extrapolated to other years, gave a population of China of 1.26 Billion, not 1.4 Billion. His methodology was very sound, and his conclusions unavoidable. So, you don't like Lei.
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  14.  @drumpfdon760  Instead of dismissing the idea, why don't you read how that number was calculated. Just laughing and being dismissive is just childish. If you think the analysis and research was faulty, fine -- but then describe how it is faulty. Where did it fail?
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  15.  @drumpfdon760  Why do you end all your comments with laughter?? Are laughing at yourself? Instead of being vague, what SPECIFICALLY does Lei say that are lies, or at least wrong?? Can you name THREE things she has said that is factually wrong?? Please...tell me.
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  16.  @drumpfdon760  Courteous? Not one of your comments is courteous. You always end with a derisive laugh. You do not want understand, to investigate, and to learn. You could never have a discussion in any form, let alone a "healthy" one.
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  17. Yep. Agreed. Good observation. This is like watching the largest but slowest train wreck in the universe. We know it is a developing disaster, but cannot take our eyes off of it.
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  18.  @syjiang  Absolutely. Japan cannot have China get SOVEREIGN control over the SCS. If that happens, Japan becomes, effectively, a vassal of China, since China will control so much of its maritime trade.
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  19.  @jamesrey3221  China sells to the world -- less and less. I am seeing items that were once made in China, now being labelled "made in Vietnam" or some other place. The world is changing.
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  20. Both China and Russia, or should I say Xi and Putin, just don't get it. You cannot have a successful stock exchange, or a successful economy when you make huge decisions based on pure politics. Just a few months ago, China was attacking Ali Baba and many other large Chinese companies, driving some out of business. This was done, it seems, all for domestic politics.
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  21. A few years ago, Chinese baby formula was recalled due to the plastic "Melamine" being in it. As a carbon polymer, Melamine will cause baby formula to test higher for protein, which is needed to pass FDA and other tests. Unfortunately, Melamine is also toxic. Unless you want a dead baby, I would never feed one ANYTHING from China.
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  22. China's power is at its highest now, when compared to US military power. America is developing new weapons that China won't be able to cope with. Also, China's economy is collapsing. So, for best results, China should attack now. I don't think China has a chance against Taiwan. Taiwan can likely defeat a Chinese invasion all by itself, if it has prepared itself. It has the missiles, technology, and geography that should defeat China.
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  23. BTW....IF China starts a war with Taiwan ---- THEN -- ALL import/export trade will cease. ALL oil imports will cease. The Malacca Strait will be shut down. Chinese fishing fleets will not be allowed to sail the oceans. Once China starts a war, its threats of war will no longer intimidate. US and the world will recognize Taiwan, even if none support it militarily. HOWEVER, Japan & US will support Taiwan. In the very least, they will restock Taiwan's ammunition. Its missile batteries will be refreshed.
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  24. How odd. You say that Xi is afraid of countries decoupling their economies from China. YET, hasn't China boycotted Australian coal, wine and other products?? Hasn't China used hostage diplomacy against foreign businessmen, to force governments to bow to his will?? Hasn't China encouraged the stealing of foreign technology and processes from companies that have located factories in China? Hasn't China had a robust campaign of spying in governments and countries around the world?? Hasn't China threatened many coutries with war over the SCS? Hasn't China disregarded EEZ rights of countries around the world stealing their fish, and destroying ocean environments?? Hasn't China weaponized trade? Hasn't China left the world very little choice but to decouple their economies?? Since China has caused the decoupling, how can Xi fear it?? Obviously, it is what he wanted.
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  25. The only way to push America out of the first island chain will be to attack our forces. If China does that, the effect on America will be profound. It would mean war. Do understand what happened after the attack on Pearl Harbor? The isolationist United States mobilized its entire economy. We stopped making cars, and made tanks and planes instead. The change was drastic and immediate. If China attacks us, the same would happen. ALL maritime trade to/from China would cease. Our subs would sink the Chinese navy, and any ship that tries to trade with China.
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  26. The fall of Xi would be great, but unimportant if he is merely replaced by someone else in the CCP. The CCP must fall, and some form of democracy created. If another autocrat, then just more of the same.
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  27. The idea of the state owning everything in both the Russian and Chinese systems actually predates Communism. Both the Tsars in Russia and the Emperors in China owned the land in their countries. The "Communists" merely replaced those autocrats with their own.
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  28. China is losing its propaganda war. More people hate it. More countries oppose it. China's foreign policy has been incompetent. It has been stupid. Xi and the CCP have squandered away the advantages that Ping's policies had given him.
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  29. US should never had gone into Afghanistan. After Bin Laden was captured and killed, especially. The US should never had entered into a policy of nation building in Afghanistan. Leaving Afghanistan has STRENGTHENED the US, not weakened us. We can now spend our assets and strength in areas that are much more important -- like the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, and Ukraine.
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  30.  @MrLordingit  Yes... and after he was killed we should have left. Our need or excuse for being there had ended, IMO.
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  31.  @drumpfdon760  Since you cannot talk w/o insulting, it is useless engaging with you. You needn't bother responding to any of my posts, I will not reply to you.
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  32. w O W Such insight. Such clarity. Thank you.
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  33. Common misconception -- rare earth elements are rare. They are not rare. We have them here in North America, and in South America, and in Africa. What they are is VERY dirty to both mine and process. We didn't mind China polluting itself, so we were happy they produced the stuff. However, if needed, we will start production somewhere else.
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  34. A stress test?? What a diabolical idea ! ! China could do a stress test for nuclear war by killing 2 million residents of Shanghai, to see how they take it, and prepare them for the real thing. We must watch for that.
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  35. BTW, If China attempts an invasion of Taiwan, I believe they will lose utterly, completely. China has 50 amphibious naval vessels. Taiwan only needs to sink those. I believe Taiwan has thousands of its own missiles. Should be easy. Also, the idea that China would use private boats and ships to transport troops is ridiculous. They can be sunk with small arms fire. They would not stand a chance.
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  36. It is not a matter of whether the CCP will fall or not, IMO. As each Chinese dynasty fell, it was replaced by another, different but the same. In a democratic system, politicians rise and fall, or parties rise and fall, but the system continues. When the CCP falls, [and it will fall], the question is what will replace it?? Will the CCP be replaced by another dictatorship? Even if the center fails, and China breaks up to become 5 or 6 smaller countries, will they be authoritarian dictatorships, or can they become democracies? To me, that is the truly big question.
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  37. Banks & investors putting money into China just proves that rich people are not always smart people. In fact, in this case, they are damned stupid.
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  38.  @SwapnilRupanwar  Exactly, Russia took land when China was weak. The CCP wants it back, and more. They want resources. It is about more than ego.
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  39.  @drumpfdon760  Not worried. I don't live there.
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  40.  @drumpfdon760  Like I said. Not my problem.
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  41. IMO, one of the things that helps America work is the FACT that its railroads are for freight, not passenger traffic. True, I envy the passenger friendly European network of rail. But, Europe lacks our freight friendly rail network. It helps us transport goods to Targets and Walmarts quickly and efficiently, keeping costs and prices down. China seems to have copied the European approach. IMO, a mistake, since China has America's size, and therefore need a rail system more like ours, I think.
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  42. @Asahi Ogawa You really don't have a clue what atrocities Japan did in WW2, do you?? Mass murder, torture, killing of prisoners for no reason, rape, medical "experiments", etc. Learn about the Rape of Nanking, and hundreds of thousands killed. Japan was a vicious brutal society.
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  43.  @gtw4546  Yep. One child policy coupled with aborting female babies is really suicidal for China.
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  44. I doubt the yuan will replace the dollar as the world reserve currency for two reasons:: 1. China has not spent enough time at the top. It took awhile for the US dollar to replace the British pound. The yuan cannot replace it quickly. 2. A bigger reason, IMO, is that China has a history of weaponizing everything. The leaders of countries will resist the yuan because they fear China's abuse of that position.
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  45. Look at the rhetoric of the powers before WW1 and WW2. All sides talked of peace -- but they gave lines which the other side must not cross. For Germany, it was the Rhineland, then Austria, then Czechoslovakia, and then Poland. In WW1, it was the Serbian ultimatum. Everyone felt war would not happen. It happened. Now, China threatens nuclear war on Japan. China threatens it over just one soldier. How can Japan react to that?? Ignore it?? It cannot, it is too serious. Submit? It cannot, for historical, cultural, and political reasons. Defy? It must. How?? Probably with nuclear weapons Biden must NOW reassure Japan, and inform China, publicly that the US will defend Japan with our nuclear umbrella. ANY nuclear attack on China will be responded with full scale nuclear response by US. That is our policy. It needs to be restated.
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  46. Great explanation. You have made China's policies make sense --- sort of. My way of looking at it is that COVID has infected the CCP. Its self destructive behavior is symptomatic of it. There is no vaccine for what infects the CCP.
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  47. I think Xi will help Putin, but not for the reasons you say. I think China has long term ambitions to take Russia's Siberia. They want Vladivostok, Kamchatka, Irkutsk, Yakutsk, Lake Baikal, and the Ob River. China has stated it is an Arctic power. How can China be an Arctic power, if it is not in the Arctic??? China is greatly benefitted by Putin's war. Russia is being used up. It's military is exposed for being unprepared, unmaintained, untrained, and poorly led. Ukraine barely has a functioning military. Ukraine is mostly a large, well motivated, civilian militia. Regular militaries normally sweep militias away. At the end, China will be the master, and Russia the servant. China will own Russia. China will likely control Russia. Russia has made its decision to turn away from the Europe and the west. [Which is ironic, considering how Putin admires Peter the Great, the Czar that tried hard to make Russia part of Europe.] Now, Putin will be responsible for making Russia a satellite of China. This would be funny if not so tragic.
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  48.  @marctemura2017  Not forgetting that at all. I think there is more at play than that. I don't think there is any doubt Xi will get his term for life. I think there is a much longer game than either his election, or the conquest of Taiwan.
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  49.  @marctemura2017  Are you sure about that?? Xi and the CCP have shown great incompetence. Xi is an idiot. Everything he has done has hurt China, and created enemies. China is now ringed with enemies.
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  50.  @marctemura2017  You must be confusing me with someone else. I always said China has severe weaknesses. Also, China can never take Taiwan. So, why did you say I think China is strong??
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