Comments by "" (@thomasherrin6798) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. If China and Russia are out of the equation due to demographics and the state of their economies, then global trade will be easier to implement amongst the remaining Wider West as their Navies will be as big as the U.S. or Russia's or China's as is (Obviously the U.S. is more capable), global trade will not go away if the U.S. withdraws into its shell, it happened thousands of years before in the ancient world, and Europe before the U.S., obviously security issues will remain but without the biggest loonies (Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are marked as ASBO's) it should be manageable, the biggest problem is can Europe Unite after the Ukraine War into an Economic Union as Political Union is dead and the E.U. may disintegrate if Germany declines!?!
    1
  2.  @equim7363  They might have to put jumpers on!
    1
  3.  @Mehwhatevr  The West will supply more if required!?!
    1
  4.  @patclark2186  General Misery will be gone, even if fleetingly, with every Ukraine victory!?!
    1
  5. No, Peter has indicated previously the problem with EV's is resources, it takes so many of them that we, at present, do not have in sufficient quantities to make the required change over, world wide!?!
    1
  6. Let's do the Maths, 8,000,000 men capable of producing children must produce 16,000,000 (2x) children for like for like continuity, they are actually producing 7,500,000 X1.12 actual Russian current reproduction rate = 8,400,000 a reduction of 7,600,000 = 47.5% of population reduction overall in this generation, in previous generations it was more likely 20 to 35% reduction as their birth rate has been low for a while, this is not counting the young male Russians who are living in another country at present, so take a minus 47.5% hit from an already decreasing birth rate and you have problems!?!
    1
  7. The debt is government debt not consumer debt, if flush consumers spend their surplus money this will add to domestic consumption and the US economy, the higher interest rates is helping the US draw capital from abroad to help with reshoring and the like, US total debt is 37 Trillion USD, Chinese total debt is 57 Trillion USD (On and off books) more than the Wider West combined. Obviously the US should raise taxes to reduce debt but not at present, in about 3 to 4 years when decoupling has been completed!?!
    1
  8. ​ @careylymanjones  Yes something like that, China does not make high end stuff, low and middling!?!
    1
  9. ​ @LabTech41  Putin first, but he has lost the killer touch, Xi is skating around him at a rate of knots at the minute, changing maps to Chinese names, meeting with the "Stan's", not committing to the pipeline (China won't pay for it, they don't want it blown up before it opens), Xi must sense that Putin is in a deep hole!?!
    1
  10. Texas Ted big hat, big head! .....and way to many guns, thats why it has the second highest mass shootings after California their "big buddies" (Tongue firmly in cheek!), takes a bit of a shine off of their progress!?!
    1
  11. I think E.U. needs to give up on Russian Energy, can they still not see that's how they got into this mess in the first place, i.e. Giving in to Russian Blackmail (Or getting a mealy mouthed deal because Russia says it will change its ways?) means more barbaric wars, that is what Putin is saying, it will cost all of Europe but get it out of the way now and not become dictated to by a despot, and not all renewables, or all nuclear, and even some carbon, an energy mix to stop being exploited, bloody wake up!
    1
  12. They found a big reserve of polyhalites in Whitby UK but they are digging slowly just in case they come across a coffin in a cave deep underground!?!
    1
  13. There will always be global trade but it might be split into like minded countries, like the Wider West and so forth if the Dictators do not stop their beligerance!?!
    1
  14. There is no big crisis in Europe apart from Russia's illegal and barbaric invasion of Ukraine, the Energy crisis has been and gone, luckily it was a mild Winter and Europe cut back energy demand by keeping coal plants open, keeping nuclear open, increasing Wind and solar, building LNG plants and securing LNG gas from reliable sources, the Winter of 2023/4 should see less scrambling for energy and by 2030-2035 Europe will be majorly Energy independent, by 2040-2045 it will be renewable energy independent, everything else is just local difficulties caused by weather peaks and troughs, here in the UK a big deal was made in Europe about a lack of seasonal food stuff, mostly fresh tomatoes, but as 98% of other foods were still available it was hardly an issue, prices have risen some people have died from cold and hunger, but that has been the same for quite a few decades now, maybe forever. With water in winter we have floods and in summer we have droughts, that's been the same for as many years as I can remember, mostly it's just poor water management, there is no rainwater shortage, just lack of storage, this is the same for the majority of Europe apart from Spain and maybe Italy which might have to invest in desalination plants or a major storage and irrigation scheme, it's all solvable it's just put back until it's got to be done, same as in the US water management is the key, mind I can't see how California can win a case of hogging all the water and making others pay for it that does seem particularly daft, that is not a fair and equitable scheme!?!
    1
  15. NZ has been bothering with China too much, how many lines on the map are they up to!?!
    1
  16. ​@AcademiaCondorcet The Russians would want to do a total blackout they have tried all the other dirty tricks it's just that they cannot!?!
    1
  17. ​​ @ishtiaquealamin6147  I don't subscribe to PPP, it's an assumption of an assumption, and that's assuming that you can take China's GDP/ PPP at face value as it is independently unverifiable as it does not publish the corresponding data, you are pointing to the US and your comments are malicious, while saying China is somehow superior, it is not, it has more problems than the US but I will wait and see!?!
    1
  18. Who says so Russia, the serial liars, they failed a test last year, they most probably will blow the sub up when launched or will be less dramatic than Kadyrov having a bath after eating a tin of Chechen beans!?!
    1
  19. Baby boomer here maybe a sizable number will be gone in the 2030's but not "all" I might even scrape into the early 2040's myself, along with a sizeable amount till around 2045 then there will be the "lingerers"😂, also a sizeable amount of the capital will be passed onto the next generation at this time in the form of inheritance which for Generation X will average 14% of their lifetime wages (Boomers only got 6% before "you" say how tough that is)!?!
    1
  20. The bridge can be further damaged, the Ukrainian's are still on the front foot, Russia's missile/ drone strike was mainly mitigated one or two days after the main attack, I expect the Ukrainian fronts to move around Russian positions very shortly, as they have been resupplying for a week, they will have a point to make about the recent civilian deaths!?!
    1
  21. Well they could just leave, but for the moment it's up to them, but if Russia uses nukes there's a big possibility that there will be no Russia, obviously it's better for its military to go back to Russia and Putin can say he won, he has already won the 2024 election, it's a landslide, the Kremlin are just keeping it under wraps for now!?!
    1
  22. ​​ @sergeikhripun No that was Putin and it was Ukraine in three days, it's day 500 and odd now, the West will still support Ukraine as long as it takes, the Western supplied equipment saves more Ukrainian lives and is replaced 10 times faster than Russia's lost equipment, hopefully it will be soon that Russia is booted out to save Ukraine lives but, until the end!?!
    1
  23. At present they are basically using everybody else's technology to butcher a chip together. They have to develop their own chip or continue to try and evade sanctions, developing their own chips is very costly and they may have some success with it, but it will not be profitable, and that is the real aim, even if they make slightly better chips the West, due to security concerns, will not buy them, so the industry will be a drain on China's resources instead of a way to increase its resources at the expense of the Wider West. Much like it's passenger plane which is only allowed in China and it's despotic allies and is an economic failure even though its made with 90 odd % of Western parts!?!
    1
  24. Russia is just chancing it's corrupt arm and has already failed as their plans have gone kaput due to the extended time of the invasion, it does not have the economy to sustain a full war of this magnitude, the oil sanctions only kicked in partially in December 2022, by Autumn of 2023 they will be struggling!?!
    1
  25. ​ @Will-xk4nm  Peters bread is buttered in the US and he appears to have lots of bread to butter, I don't agree with some of the things he says but he may still be correct, time will tell, but he does give the information to enable you to form an opinion. I think Peter would be a kinder person than Elon Musk whose motives are contradictory in any number of circumstances but I can't endorse Peter's position on Musk because I just do not know and when making those type of accusations you have to know for sure!?!
    1
  26. Russia today are genocidal crooks, the UK is not, and if you didn't dodge your taxes you would have free healthcare, fresh drinkable water and continuous power!?!
    1
  27. Only if it's cheaper or not available!?!
    1
  28. ​ @CaptainCaveman1170  Well it's the Elites of Iran and maybe Moscow who are not "banking class" but just thugs, who use more thugs!?!
    1
  29. U.K. will join agreements if they are within our interests, otherwise no deal, Ireland will become one when the majority of Northern Island votes for it in accordance with the agreement, it will not be under duress!??
    1
  30. Looks at the birth replacement ratio records there is not a lot of difference between the U.S./ N.Z./ Germany etc., and there has been a lot of migration into Europe over the last decade from Asia and Africa, which due to their increase in population is not going down anytime soon. U.S. has its immigration problems too, mostly from South America, so European problems are not that much different from the U.S. Problems!?!
    1
  31. There is not a lot the West can do if "they" split into regions, that is their decision!?!
    1
  32.  @protorhinocerator142  The U.S. has high debt because it spends more than it gets in taxes, and it's not really spent on other countries, it mostly spent on the U.S., it is therefore no good blaming others!?!
    1
  33.  @zopEnglandzip  Except if they are Autocratic!?!
    1
  34. Flooding is as old as the start of human settlements, the only reasons they are still occurring (Apart from "major" disasters) is due to corruption and incompetence, this would appear to fall under that category, it is preventable, but it wasn't prevented, and it may get worse!?!
    1
  35. I glad I heard you say "Shift"!?!
    1
  36. Carbon is not the future (It only has 50 years), therefore electric is one way to go until something better comes along (Hydrogen is taking a back step at the moment), electric vehicles will get better and cheaper and materials will change, it has accelerated in a decade, in a further one or two decades it will be cheaper, it is a big change!?!
    1
  37. ​​ @mrcrowley109  Firstly it's not Russia's own stuff, it's internationally illegally occupied territory under the UN charter, it's Ukraine sovereign territory as you have got this incorrect the rest of your statement is irrelevant but, the Kerch bridge damage was most probably carried out by Ukraine or separatists aided by Ukraine, which as it's in their territory without their permission they can attack it, Russia destroyed the Nord Stream Pipeline and as it was already in disuse for the foreseeable future there is no relevance to it on either side, the NATO countries are sitting on the report as at this juncture they do not want to trigger article 5 as it was not a viable infrastructure attack on NATO!?!
    1
  38. ​@@OhlordyWeArefalling The Russian public are fickle if somebody else comes along and gives them a better deal they will support them, Putin is blocking that at the moment so there is no change, but his armour is weaker from the blows to his authority that he personally has suffered, and if you didn't have all the low morale videos and reports from the Russian soldiers at the front, even from the Russian generals who got fired for reporting it, and the potty mouthed Chef for highlighting Russia's deficiencies, yes if you ignore all that your statement is true!?!
    1
  39. ​@@OhlordyWeArefalling Last Winter was the worst one Russia could have taken advantage of, but Europe sorted itself out and arranged supplies from other sources, this year the supplies are coming from the other sources, Russia is out of the loop, their revenue from energy is down 50% as a result and the Rouble is worth one cent to the dollar and falling, I don't know what planet you are on but Europe is going through a mild recession after readjusting the majority of its energy supplies and food prices caused by the illegal Russian invasion, Russia can ill afford a war in Ukraine it will be the fifth biggest economy in Europe when Italy overtakes it next year, Poland will overtake it's economy in ten years, that's the state of mighty Russia, it's going backwards in Ukraine, it's going backwards economically, and backwards as a race!?!
    1
  40. ​ @sweden_is_xxxx  Europe is going through a mild recession, caused by Russia's illegal war, other countries, especially Russia are fairing far worse, the Russian Rouble is one cent to a dollar and falling, comrade and they are advancing backwards in Ukraine on day 500 and odd of a three day war, your economics is more than a little suspect comrade, much like Putin's, but his is on a larger scale!?!
    1
  41. ​ @secretname4190 The EU would not gladly accept Scotland, they would have you go through some serious hoops, they will have a number of very nasty preconditions, you will be over a barrel and they will tan your hide!?!
    1
  42. He offers detailed opinions of his claims, these opinions may be totally false as it may be based on an incorrect assumption, on the other hand it could be correct, you can only provide evidence by asking the White House or Xi's mob, you are unlikely to get a straight answer, you do not however have to listen to his opinions, you can do something which would be more beneficial for Your day!?!
    1
  43. ​ @bunncameron6687  Technically they were the second rated army in the World prior to the "Three Day Operation", facts and Russia don't add up, they have about 7 million people to mobilise (Unwilling!) as the rest are basket cases, Russia is a failed state, Europe was no threat to Russia, the biggest threat Russia faces is China their "limitless" friends, Putin gave Xi half control of a disputed island as a gesture, China's official new map shows it all belonging to China!?!
    1
  44. When you go to War then all the society's "problems" fade and you face the new normal rather quickly, your old leaders are pushed out and new ones take over and its survival of the fittest, no excuses. Society has gone a little soft and to many of our leaders are incompetent, but if Russia is anything to go by so have our enemies, China is an unknown force, they seem more capable than Russia but as the West has been involved in numerous conflicts one wonders if they are battle ready, I don't think so out of China and we are hardly likely to invade, we can disrupt their supply chains!?!
    1
  45. In the majority it should be O.K. but the sheer wave of Covid cases might unleash a minority deadly virus, China might lockdown itself but it has been poor in stopping it being exported!?!
    1
  46.  @SeptikAvenger  .......Russia!?!
    1
  47. Well New Zealand are in hock with China for exports, so if they kick off anything games up!?!
    1
  48. Why? they can make the World's best chips and nobody will buy them outside of China!?!
    1
  49. Lithium is far better than nicad which you had to charge overnight, it is however not the future of EV but a stopgap!?!
    1
  50. It's just another drug gang war, the Americans are blaming St. Andreas, it's his fault!?!
    1