Comments by "snuffeldjuret" (@snuffeldjuret) on "Thunderf00t"
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@sangwaraumo not sure what you mean with "... if they're based on belief motivated by what is pleasing to imagine."
I disagree on your example "I hope I'll be famous like Justin Bieber one day." It's hope, it's wishful thinking." as I understand it, it would only be wishful thinking if you believed you'd actually be famous like Justin Bieber. I guess you could say that all wishful thinking is hopes, but not all hopes are wishful thinking.
"And why are you insisting on the Bezos thing, seems you're the only one caring about this Bezos Vs Elon stuff here."
Because you don't seem to care about other people or companies missing timelines, but you put in quite an effort to rationalize laughing at Elon when he does. How else am I supposed to interpret this? I gave you seemingly enough information on Bezos/Blue Origin, SLS, JWST, Vulcan and Starliner and you barely reacted. You said "If Bezos is going around doing that, then I'll also have my laugh when I see it.", to test that I keep talking about Bezos/Blue Origin. Additionally, I'm not doing any Bezos Vs Elon stuff, I am comparing Bezos and Musk as that is interesting given that their situations are so similar in this area.
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@sangwaraumo of course, as I said, I think you can say that all wishful thinking is hopes.
"And I'm not talking about Bezos because this is a video and topics about Elon. I've already agreed with you he deserves the same treatment if he does the same thing."
The thing is that I want to build on this, take the conversation further, and if not for anything else, context always matter. I am curious about why you are fed with so much information about Elon's missed/failed timelines, yet you seem to be unaware of all the other missed/failed timelines. Among other things, I wonder if there is some bias inside you, because you seem to trust negative things said about Elon, but not negative things said about Bezos/Blue Origin. You still say "if he does the same thing", even though I gave you a quote and a date: "Wed 9 Mar 2016: "Private space travel company Blue Origin expects to launch its first people in 2017, company founder Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday during a tour of the venture’s research and development site outside Seattle."". To add to this, what did he say about New Glenn? In the news 12th of September 2016 we could read that "We plan to fly New Glenn for the first time before the end of this decade ...", it has obviously not flown yet and their current plan says fourth quarter of 2022. Out of curiosity, how do you think "end of this decade" should be interpreted? Also, when do you think it is appropriate to drop the "if he does the same thing" bit and just say "he deserves the same treatment"?
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@sangwaraumo "Yes, there is a discrepancy in how Elon is treated. I agree to that."
Thank you :).
"But it doesn't make his claims less wishful thinking."
We went over the definition of "wishful thinking". It is not wishful thinking if you just hope it'll happen. I mean, the "claim" you are talking about isn't a claim, it is a plan, and an extremely rough one at that. Space plans pretty much always change, and you rarely if ever plan for something to take more time than it actually will, but that depends on if there is an actual strict deadline or not (like the Mars 2020 missions). There is a reason why the concept "NET", "no earlier than" in commonly used in the space business. What Elon says is basically that it won't happen before 2050, and that he'll work towards it happening asap. It really isn't as big of a deal as you make it out to be.
For fun, are you aware of how many years delayed the James Webb Space Telescope is? "Unaware of how badly understated the JWST Budget2 was, NASA management thought there was a 70% probability of launching in June 2014" (source: NASA). Yeah, that is quite many years ago and it is still not up yet. Fingers crossed it'll launch successfully this year.
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@thomasbecker9676 "I asked you to define success. Your response was ..."
I am not obligated to directly answer your question. Expressing a perfect definition with no flaw what so ever is basically impossible, thus I countered with asking if not becoming the richest man in the world would be defined as being successful, how do you define it? How does one become the world richest man without being successful?
"You mentioned no other metrics, so one can only assume that you use wealth as the sole measure of success."
No, the assumption you should make is that wealth matters. If your interpretation was correct, I would have said that straight up. The fact that I didn't should give you pause when you make your far too simplistic interpretation.
" Now you're backtracking on what you said."
Not at all, I am pointing out the errors in your interpretation of what I said. I still say it is impossible to say Elon is unsuccessful solely for the simple reason that he has become the richest person in the world based on the success of his companies. No matter what other factors play in to being successful, that is enough to determine he is. We live in a capitalistic system and he is capitalist 1, that is success baby, no matter how much it is a thorn in your, TF's and CSS's eyes.
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@thomasbecker9676 but I didn't say it was exclusively about wealth, that was an interpretation you made up based on your bias. Me pointing out how you are wrong is not moving the goalpost, it is getting you to not make things up, it is so, so much different. The way I cited wealth wasn't even by referencing it is a lot about it, only speaking about the wealthiest person alive surely has to be it. If anything, that indicates that I don't think it is a major component of being successful.
Again, you haven't answered me how a person becomes the richest person alive without being successful. That is why I make this example, because you will not be able to address it, and you haven't. Instead you try to make a straw man out of my argument and try to tackle that. It is kind of sad, really.
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@nickbrough8335 What specifically are you talking about? You would have to be more specific for me to know what contract and mission(s) you talk about. While I await your reply, are you aware of this:
"Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Hawthorne, California, has been awarded a $297,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract, for launch services to deliver the NROL-87, NROL-85, and AFSPC-44 missions to their intended orbits." (Source: US Dept of Defense.)
This was awarded in 2019. That is 100k per launch, not 300k as you said.
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