Comments by "Supernova" (@MrSupernova111) on "The Plain Bagel" channel.

  1.  @interestingcommentbut....7378  . I can agree with that. But the notion that we'll see a "raging bull market" anytime soon is wishful thinking. History says otherwise.
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  2. You're confusing incompetence with corruption.
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  3.  @chowsquid  . I disagree. The government, at all levels, already borrows from the public in the form of bonds and treasuries.
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  4. Unless you trade swaps for an institution this is way above anything you ever need to know. Its also very complicated. I took a college course in international finance and calculating costs/profits on swaps was no picnic.
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  5. Agreed!
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  6. HFTs figure that out decades ago. I'm sure you heard of LTCM. Algos work until they don't.
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  7. I think you meant your two "favorite youtubers." Someday you'll realize you've been fed garbage most of your life and you took it as gospel.
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  8. Bro,. slow the phuck down! Also, why you ditch the business suit? You trying to appeal to the clueless and financially illiterate majority?
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  9. Lehman was "oversold" as well just before they collapsed. lol
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  10. You should read a good book on security analysis. None of what you said makes any sense - especially the last part about Tesla taking over Toyota's market cap as there is no direct link between profitability and market cap. Toyota is a far superior business to Tesla as we can see by comparing financial statements - not stock prices.
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  11. He's clueless just like the rest of of them. But like the rest he sure loves making up bullshit excuses for everything. LOL
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  12. I mentioned something similar to your last point. I think this video conflates volatility and valuation of future cash flows as captured in pricing. I firmly believe that pricing captures both risk, in the form of volatility, and valuation of future cash flows. There are other factors involved like the lifecycle of the investment but in the real world when we have client's with 100+ investments we can't realistically sit there and discuss how market research and security analysis might affect pricing of each individual investment independently from one another. Hence, why we use historical pricing as a means to capture risk. Volatility as reflected in historical pricing might not be perfect but used in combination with research could be very effective in mitigating portfolio risk. My two cents.
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  13. Because the general public is clueless and expect the world to evolve around their lifestyle. Nothing is certain in the world but investors expect a smooth trend with each quarterly report. Also, investors are emotional.
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  14. You clearly don't realize the amount of money at stake here. People get paid handsomely, think millions, to keep such company secrets. Try to see the world from outside your bubble.
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  15.  @bluestriker256  . Doesn't hurt me any. I just want to make sure you understand that people in those kind of situations have a lot to gain by keeping their mouths shut. There is also the possibility of liability for spreading company secrets.
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  16. hahaha
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  17. Like a fugazzi. lol
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  18.  @Fishmans  . Its a dumb premise to being with. Of course there is no single indicator that will predict market performance.
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  19.  @ThePlainBagel  . I understand all this. But at the end of the day we have a responsibility to clients and they demand that we define risk. We can't tell them to just trust our research and assumptions without something concrete to back up those claims on risk. Hence, we use historical pricing to measure risk whether we use standard deviation, beta, or any other metric that measures risk per changes in pricing over a period of time. Back to my point, I think pricing captures both risk and fundamental valuation. Whether the market is irrational or whether we got the valuation correct is another story. Cheers!
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  20.  @ThePlainBagel  . Also, I'm aware that there are a myriad of other factors that go into making investment decisions like time horizon, economic conditions, geopolitics, and business cycles but at the end of the day we need to define risk in a quantitative way and historical pricing allows us to better understand risk. Cheers!
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  21. Our financial system would collapse and you better start growing your own food. LOL
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  22. That is an extremely time consuming process that would take hours to explain. You're better off learning how to do this on your own. Plenty of good books on the topic to learn how to perform your own security analysis. Even if he were to do it you gain nothing from it unless you're willing to do the same. We're talking days or weeks doing security analysis and having to update your data over time on a single stock.
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  23. Stagflation? I think you mean inflation.
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  24.  @silversoul5285  . Peter Lynch is a hypocrite. Its impossible to arrive at fair intrinsic value of a firm's future cash flows without taking into account the economy at large. Its mathematically impossible. Any investing without accounting for the macro economic environment is just wishful thinking. People who can't understand this shouldn't be giving financial or investment advice.
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  25. That's not entirely true. There are hedge fund strategies dedicated to analyzing price action and exploiting what they call market dislocations. Our friend the plain bagel is an academic and simply regurgitates academic theory which resonates with the common person who is risk averse and doesn't know any better. The common person should probably stick to maximizing their 401k until they retire but not everyone is in that situation.
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  26. Thanks for chiming in! Could you share any good books on investment risks?
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  27. lol
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  28.  @samsonsoturian6013  . That's not a pump and dump scheme. Enron was a firm with a real product and revenues. What happened at Enron was accounting fraud. Nobody is safe from risk but not all risks are "pump and dump" schemes.
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  29. Do you mean the same clown that calls himself a financial guru but turns around and endorsements FTX while his clueless followers get taken to the cleaners on their FTX investments?
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  30. You got that right! And those that get caught go straight to prison.
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  31. I think you mean the self appointed "low interest guy" Donald Trump. The same guy that go us into a trade war with China just before he was swiftly removed from the White House and the same guy who gave corporate America the largest tax break in decades!! LOL
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  32.  @crk140  . Are you listening to yourself?? hahaha
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  33.  @crk140  . You have to be real ignorant to think that today's inflation was created overnight due to Biden's babbling. All your arguments are entirely focused on political mudslinging. Go take some economic courses so you can hold an objective conversation about economics. Good day!
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  34. The video is just telling you that if you earn 4.5% return on investment and inflation is 2% then you really only have 2.5% REAL return on investment. You can change the numbers to whatever you feel is more realistic. But the REAL return of investment is the net amount after inflation.
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  35.  @reformed_attempt_1  . Nothing was reinvented. This is common sense. Read my other reply.
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  36.  @zarifshoeb  . I'm not going to rewatch this useless video 3 years later to find out where the mix up happened. But the formula for real rate of return and simple return are not the same. Look them up as it might clarify the example. I'm not going to bother any further. Good day!
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  37. ​ @TiredBush  . I started a main thread in the comments which you can look up. But if you truly want to learn more about this bank collapse you should read the WSJ articles. For context, the top 24 banks in the USA currently have $300 billion in unrealized loses due to increased fed rates effects on the bond market. SVB is sending ripples across the economy as many of their VC clients struggle to figure out how to do basic things like cover payroll. SVB is being accused by clueless chatters for being over leveraged or making too many risky loans. However, the truth is that the bank put their money in the safest assets possible but collapsed anyway because the increase in fed rates caused the unrealized loses which spooked clients causing a run on the bank. A run on the bank can happen to any bank including the big ones. Banks have very little reserve capital and are not a single one is immune from a run on the bank. Contagion is a real concern in this environment.
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  38. What percent of UK mortgages have adjustable rates? I live in the US where the majority of mortgages have fixed interest.
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  39.  @nathanwaight  Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Thanks for the info!
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  40. Bro, I'm surprised that someone with your credentials can screw up the CAGR calculation so badly on a public video. I like your channel but you can't make these kind of flubs especially with your credentials. You should know that inflation doesn't reduce your earnings upfront and that taxes aren't triggered until you sell.
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  41. I think there is value is some of those courses or bootcamps. For example, if you learn to code in python and complete a couple of projects during the bootcamp then you got something out of it. Sure, it won't qualify you to work with neural networks but maybe its enough to get their career on track. I work in finance and adding some programming to my skillset would be a great investment.
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  42.  @tommiranda3158  . You clearly don't understand that the wealthy use accounting methods to shield themselves from personal bankruptcy. Hence, why bankruptcy for the wealthy is different than for the rest of us. The wealthy play by different rules. Try to keep up kid.
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  43. Agree! These financial experts are either clueless or in collusion with the elite who are laughing their way to the bank as the rest of society is left holding the empty bags.
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  44. Good point!
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  45.  @xynyde0  . Rising interest rates are neither "limited" in scope nor "idiosyncratic." Immediately, after he said that in the SVB video two other banks failed. Now, another failed. These are systemic issues and its why the Fed and the FDIC decided to fully back all deposits instead of the $250k limit. Finance professionals are trained to regurgitate whatever nonsense to keep the fees coming and downplay market conditions. They can't help themselves even as the banking system starts to collapse.
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  46. Of course its possible. Just be born into wealth or hit the lottery. Common people who want to retire early have no clue how inflation works and if they manage to retire early they end up going back to work at some point. My rough estimate is that someone who retires at 60 and expects to live another 20 years will likely need at least $1.5 million or more to live comfortably over that 20 year period. Of course, they could choose to live in the middle of nowhere and keep their cost of living very low but I think that kind of retirement is not what most people want. Someone who wants to retire at 30 or 40 isn't going to stay retired until 80 or 90 with less than several million dollars. Plain and simple. Note: I posted this comment before watching your video but I've researched this topic extensively in the past.
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  47. The Smartest Guys in the Room. Phenomenal film!
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  48.  @niveaulimbo6101  . Which is necessary to properly construct a portfolio. Hence, asking for help to construct a portfolio without understanding the individual components is like asking how to build a house with no construction experience.
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  49.  @niveaulimbo6101  . You can't construct a portfolio without knowledge of the individual components. Try grabbing a hammer and start building a house with no experience. You can't learn this stuff by watching a youtube video. Get it through your thick head.
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  50.  @niveaulimbo6101  . The only one rambling is you. Stop wasting other people's time with nonesense.
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