Comments by "hugh mungus" (@hughmungus2760) on "Whatifalthist" channel.

@Petronium123 the only thing that stopped the crisis of the 70s bringing the US down was the normalisation of relations with china and the massive economic surplus gained by the US by having basically a billion people working to produce things for them at slave wages.
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Hunter Smith Funny, people were saying china's growth was unsustainable 20 years ago.
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china waits for the right opportunity, if the US gets distracted in another major conflict elsewhere (or at home) they will make their move.
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@SteelSagas Holy crap, during operation sealion you had to literally be directly over the target to drop bombs and 9/10 times it'd still miss. Today, precision guided munitions will make taiwanese defenders fair worse than the Iraqis did in 2003.
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@SteelSagas Russia is going in with kid gloves really, No strategic bombing, no nationwide destruction of infrastructure and warcrimes of the kind seen in WW2 aren't happening. Keep in mind NATO bombed serbia for 2 months before invading.
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@ferrariguy8278 the US got kneecapped by Covid buddy, Not only did it knock over a presidency, japanify the US economy, cause 1 million deaths, swell the ranks of anti-vaxxers and cause the worst political division in the US since the civil rights era. He might have gotten some things right about ukraine (though Mearsheimer beat him to it by decades) but he was dead wrong with US and China ala covid.
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@justinpetersen5273 funny because theres no evidence that Covid is causing any real problems in china right now.
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@RedLancerMoto Please, as far as his predictions about china is concerned, He's a Laughing stock along the lines of Gordon Chang. The guy can't read or speak chinese and hasn't set foot in china, yet pretends to know chinese culture and internal politics.
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Kids only 21, cut him some slack.
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north korea's conventional power comes in its ability to level south korea's industrial base in the opening shots with the sheer amount of MRLS and tactical ballistic missiles it has.
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Sigh. really? You're still talking about covid? How long did those protests last for? A few weeks? Then china got on top of it and now its economy is booming while its the US having bank runs and a looming recession.
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@JLudwig-c4l Recent IMF predictions show that china is slated to grow at >5% of GDP this year while the US recently experienced the second and third largest bank failures in its history.
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The threat taiwan faces is not outright invasion but blockade and air bombardment. China with it's immense artillery, missile and manned/unmanned air power would easily exhaust taiwan's air defenses. Once taiwan loses air superiority. its pretty much game over for any defender. terrorism threat for china is basically non existent. China has a vast survailance state that is the most capable in the world. Any wouldbe terrorist wouldn't last 5 minutes, especially during wartime when alertness is heightened.
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@gideonmele1556 old people aren't useless. Multigenerational households are the norm in china where the elderly live with the young and contribute in countless ways. This form of familial support also deters people from the kind of radicalism that results in revolutions Also, notice how its not the middle ages anymore? China today is an industrialised and technologically interconnected country with vast overlapping dependencies which make that style of warlordism impossible. Provinces depend too much on each other to ever consider going their own way. Hell many provinces don't even have their own independent identities anymore after decades of intermixing. There is more chance of the US breaking apart than china.
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@gideonmele1556 furthermore. You have to understand that the current chinese state is leaps and bounds ahead of the west in playing the populism game. the chinese state is FAR more likely to enact policy change due to popular backlash than any western democracy.
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@wanghui562 good point too many 'experts' expect the CCP to be brought down the same way a democratic government can be brought down. But the fact of the matter is authoritarian governments are extremely resistant to external meddling.
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@alexmuenster2102 yes, both sides of the ukraine conflict are using chinese made DJI drones for military spotting.
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then you have the exact opposite problem in the west where you have absolutely shameless people who refuse to wear masks or get vaccinated because 'muh individualism' and end up killing themselves and a million of their countrymen.
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No because taiwan is less than 100km from the mainland and can park any number of foreign military forces there. Its a geostrategic risk for china.
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@Thomas-u8q Nobody explains, how the Fk China takes siberia off a country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal.
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hmmm have you considered that the powers that be would throw this angry, sexless male youth into a meatgrinder of a war to diffuse the tension? Maybe kill off a couple million to free up some room? Thats what the Russians are doing with their angry youth in ukraine. Maybe a decade of trench warfare with the chinese that ends in a stalemate will fix everyone's demographic frustrations.
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china has its problems yes, but as a chinese person as well nobody really believes that things are returning to warlordism nor should they want that.
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@iminyourwalls8309 Chinese culture is fundamentally different to the west, when people reach 'retirement' they rarely if ever retire. its not like in the west where the government promissed generations of people unrealistic pensions. In china people have personal savings for their old age but still work till the are physically incapable of working because its considered culturally unacceptable to be unemployed. You see this even today with the elderly still holding down jobs and getting very little handouts from the government with basically no complaints.
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@iminyourwalls8309 The old people are being replaced with robots anyway, the real wealth of china will be created by automation and more efficient, localized supply chains. Hell, if china can pull the remaining 40% of it's population off the fields and into some kind of desk job, thats a huge deal. Because you can work in an office well into your old age.
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@Ifraneljadida Keep in mind china's population is not expected to go under 1 billion by the end of century, I don;t know where people keep getting this extremist prediction of the population halving in a few decades from.
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On the topic of birth rates. If things were truely desperate I can see states turning to the use of cloning and industrial child rearing as a solution. People will be born into institutions and raised like livestock, if this means the survival of the state. so be it.
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Allowing the stock market to fail = eliminating the private economy. Yeah nice take. I guess china should just do 'socialism for the rich' like the west and print a heap of money to bail out their investors too huh?
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Rome collapsed because it got invaded by a mass migration from the east. The Mongols collapsed because they were an empire of military conquest which could only survive based off its ability to suppress rebellion.
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@shorewall I can forsee the US turning china into a squabbling confederacy of states like the EU where easily manipulate by having fingers in every pie and controlling the media/tech companies. This is why I will never support any move to break apart china.
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he has no answer because the end result is irrelevant to him. He (or CIA paid mouthpieces he parrots) justs wants china to have a revolution to set them back so they aren't challenging the US hegemony. Its almost as if people with functional brains can see a pattern.
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Nathan Rich did a very clear breakdown on exactly why the lockdowns are happening. Note that its not even a nationwide lockdown but isolated to a few urban centres. The exact number of potential deaths with the current lethality rate of omicron is expected to be over 1 million. (not as bad as 14m but still enough to be a huge national embarassment)
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@bambimonkey quite frankly the author is parroting people like peter zeihan who are well known to be highly biased against china because china poses the only real challenge to US power. Its arguing in bad faith at best.
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Hes milking that 'china collapse' narrative real hard
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the question for china would be 'once taiwan is taken, then what' because most of its largest trade partners would have put sanctions on it and the new cold war would Truely be underway.
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Gotta love how you constantly lowball china even though you literally have to take the absolute worse case scenario of total state disintegration and massive population collapse to make it work. A more moderate prediction is that china continues to grow but at an ever slower pace until it nominally overtakes the US as the world's largest economy while never really becoming the dominant global power because of internal issues. All the problems with regards to water, food and energy can be solved in time with technology, while things like demographics will work itself out over time even if it involves the country shrinking to below 1 billion people by 2100 which is a sane projection made by sane people.
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unless the US was directly fighting china over air and naval control over taiwan theres basically no way taiwan's third rate airforce and pitiful navy stand a chance against china. Even If the US got involved, the tyranny of distance would make it damn near impossible for the US to sustain an air campaign that close to china, especially with china lobbing missiles at US airbases and carriers constantly.
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@ikkinwithattitude Taiwan produces 0 fuel and 1/3 of its food needed to survive. China can simply starve the island to death without ever landing troops. After a few million end up in mass graves due to yemen like conditions, Taiwan will have no choice but to negotiate.
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this version the rebirth of america is sounding alot like 'Afghanistan at home'
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@juliantandoh4042 nope, the most advanced taiwanese fighter is a modernised F16 that could barely hold its ground against chinese J10Cs and Flankers, Taiwan's airforce would get stomped going up against J20s.
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2 Types of people think Russia can be convinced into backstabbing china both for equally stupid reasons: Neolibs and White nationalists, The neolibs disregard the agency of Russians whom have only known western hostility. The white nationalists, because they are racists and because russia is 'white'
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@greenearth975 I think after another year or two, barring another much more deadlier variant of covid emerging, the CCP will no longer see it politically feasable to do lockdowns. Right now the great fear is that even though omicron isn't as deadly, if china loses control of the virus, it will see a couple hundred thousand people die with overflowing hospitals and mass graves. That would be FAR worse than a few people going hungry and getting stir crazy.
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why the hell would china want to invade south korea? At best they would prop up the north if it looked like they were going to lose because they don't want a US ally on its border. But the occupation of south korea / the north taking the entire peninsula is not something china needs.
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