Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

  1. Bahmut line of defense was already invalid about 10 days ago. Few days ago Slaviansk line was invalidated as Russians started to move west from it. In short Ukraine defenses were compromised by idiots - looking at you Zielinski. Hiding facts is also very bad - did not work for Germany in 1945. Essentially now Ukraine lost the war as there is no viable new defense line.
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  2. Russians are in Lisychiansk already and one of the two plants you talked about has already fallen - I assume the smaller one. Russians are making big advances now and its too late for UA forces to save much of Severdoneck or Lisichiansk troops. Road is under tank fire - so only light infantry running on their own two feet can break through easily. I expect Russians to tighten this in the next day or two. Feels like total collapse - this was not some orderly withdrawal from Zalote - it was a total collapse & Russians should push hard as long as they do so they may net far more troops.
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  3. Svitlodarsk --- note Poles confirm that Russian forces have crossed the bridge and moved few more km. This is from "Nowy Lad". Probably villages on the other side of the river are all taken. This is significant as river was a major obstacle! Note if Poles confirm this would be almost the same as Ukraine confirms.
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  4. When you do an offensive, take heavy losses and the enemy counter attacks takes land you had before the whole affair! This is beyond epic fail.
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  5. There is a video of dozens of UA vehicles destroyed - dozens in just one location. I doubt Ukraine will be able to hold this bridgehead for long unless they want to totally bleed out.
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  6. This is similar to Kharkiv front. Russians will not let Ukrainains take land - if they by some luck do, they counter and take it back. This sort of shows why war for Ukraine is LOST.
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  7. Facts count. Ukraine destroyed a bridge around Irpin and they cannot go there - they given up position. They taken that decision ONLY after realizing they cannot hold that position and there is no chance of future retaking it, at least from that angle. This means they luck resources to a) hold b) retake. Thus claiming encirclement that is way bigger operation just like less then 48h later is ... a bit rich in propaganda.
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  8. There reason Ukrainians did this counter attack was to avoid forces south of Mitokale to be encircled - if Russians taken Syrodme then the 2k or so troops to the south would be totally cut off. This is all nice and such BUT Russians are moving more and more from the rear and will threaten multiple cauldrons in multiple directions.
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  9. I think politics 20/20 is a bit over the top ;) Maybe 5/20 - there are not political parties, opposition is in jail & I would be suspicious of any elections.
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  10. How are they protecting EU and from what threat? To Haag for trail by whom and for what? Why would attack by some old drones be devastating to Russian morale? Primitive Iranian drones have a range of 2500km.
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  11. 13km is not a big deal on a trail, but they most likely will avoid the road and go through the forest - where they will have to be very careful. This is a very long day - and some may not make it through. Russian drones with thermals would help in pin pointing the location of little groups for artillery strikes.
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  12. Shopping center was legit target - there is a russian drone video showing it used for artillery position.
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  13.  @christophertriantis4993  Nah, Russia won this war. What we are seeing is Ukraine making sure the win is not much more then what Russia wanted to win.
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  14. it has to be seen in the context of a) Mariupol had mostly Russian population and is to be main port city of DPR - so why destroy it completely b) Azov is NAZI and killing them is one of main goals of the war c) the sooner Mariupol falls the sooner encirclement of army of Donbass can start and thus end of the war so its a) + c) vs. b)
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  15. I think it will be much faster then 2-3 months. Much. Reason is that there are no big fortifications there & no big stores of ammo / food. Urban area is also much, much smaller.
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  16. First - 6sec! I do not believe Ukrainian claim of recapture. It is not confirmed by any reliable sources.
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  17. Unlikely. There are no withdrawals. I expect Russians will hold this position at any cost. And Ukraine is bleeding so hard they are now searching whole front to get more into the meat grinder.
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  18. In short offensive is going very poorly. after 8 days Ukraine controls slightly more than on day 1. Only in 1 area Ukraine advanced a bit, only max of 7km, now less. Defensive line is still over 10km away. Plan was to reach defensive line on... day 1 (!!!!) By week one, WSJ reports UA lost 15% of donated equipment (!!!)
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  19. Building is called "Tax Commission / inspection". It could be related to port facility and duties / taxes paid there. Regarding flag rising - there is no other noise in the area and guys are standing like on a parade - so territory for at least 1km around is taken and safe, probably 1.5km. If there was closer fighting you would hear it in the distance & they would not stand so "care free".
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  20. They have far more than 6 brigades. Now they have a reason to take Sumy region and annex it.
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  21. Nah, Makarivka is almost 100% retaken. But they may loose it during the night. Ukraine is trying really hard to make this work at any cost. I think its mostly for PR purposes now.
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  22. Yeah, funny guy... a comedian.
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  23. Ukrainians have huge man power advantage, Russians did not. But that is about to change. We will see more open combat in winter and spring.
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  24. Of another note is that this is history repeat. Front looked similar to today, Nazi troops held similar lines and Russians did big Izium offensive but it failed. This time around, Russians had success and it did not fail - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izyum%E2%80%93Barvenkovo_offensive The operation was aimed at encircling German troops in Donbass. Now Russians have success and thus they are encircling Ukrainian troops in Donbass. I suspect Ukraine is too weak to remove Donbass army & these guys will have to be sacrificed for Zielinski to continue his begging offensive in the west. If US stays firm this only will cost Ukraine heavy losses and a success of Putin's campaign to eliminate Ukraine's military power completely.
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  25. Yeah but Sloviansk, the biggest city left in Donbass is like 20km to the south. So if they engage new Ukrainian position 5km away, they will be only 15km away from Sloviansk. They will easily be able to start shelling defenses in Sloviansk and this is why I said battle of Sloviansk has started.
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  26. One ship definitely sunk or scrapped. I do not think there was much ammo on that ship - it was docket yesterday and unloaded. If it was fully loaded with ammo you would see some... fireworks - note what happened in Halifax when ammo ship exploded - 1000 dead and half of the city blown off. So I don't think this is even close. The other two ships are fine, minimal damage probably from debris falling on them. This is why they put out fires quickly. Overall embarrassing for the Russians - it could be b/c of news coverage of the ship which was geo-located - so bad OPSEC.
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  27. First!
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  28. There is no way they can supply 20k troops through some dirt roads. 2nd road is under fire control of RF and that road already involved some dirt re-routing. Retreating through this mess for 20k troops is out of question unless in small groups leaving most / all equipment behind. Unless they have some miracle these 20k are gone.
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  29. I do not think so. It looks like Russians have totally moved out of the area.
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  30. Russians probably shorten the front and use Kherson as a front city. I doubt Ukraine will capture the city or Russia will let them as it would be a major political blow. But this is hard to say - Russians may be much more concerned with taking Mariupol and finishing off army of Donbas then loosing Kherson. For Ukraine taking back Kherson would have immense political and moral boost. This is main reason for Russia to defend it.
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  31. They mobilizing late. Ukrainie has huge numbers but it will not last. Relax. Russia won this war.
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  32. Torsek was entered. Geo located video. Ukraine claimed they accidentally shelled themselves... Hard to believe UA side.
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  33. Hard to say - mopping it up could take weeks more. Grozny lasted 5 weeks, Falujah 6 weeks. It could be a week. It could be three. But I think closer to a week - its already divided into three parts.
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  34. I really like the Russian method of detecting combatants - gun powder residue scanner - used on airports. The stripping and looking for mostly Nazi tattoos. Very good, clean method of making sure no soldier pretends he is not one.
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  35. Zolote area troops are done for - all roads are cut and they can only escape through narrow set of fields. And here goes like 2000-3000 troops - wasted. Good going UA command. Who knew you had so much troops to throw out.
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  36. Zielinski said 700k troops total. But most are like 4th rate - i.e. maybe at best a match for police force. Maybe not. I.e. they are not able, even with 3:1 advantage to do much against Russians. Its like modern Volksturm. Plus morale is like uber low.
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  37. Most Polish channels threw the towel and start to admit Ukraine is loosing. They are just not saying full spectrum of the loss. For example, they say Russians are close to Lisichinsk but don't say they would be in suburbs in few days.
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  38. Chances of Ukraine capturing Krasny Liman are now less then 10%. This offensive looks like was defeated as well. Russian totally bled UA troops dry and they no longer have offensive power to continue. I expect UA forces to loose most of the land captured in the next few weeks. Same as in Kherson.
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  39. Yep, Putin things with his head, cold and calculated. Zielinski and his stuff does not. They are "PR" army.
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  40. Your guess makes sense about future attack. But I am sure Ukraine will not give in easily. The ship sunk was of low value - its more of embarrassment value & PR value. Any confirmation on Mariupol flag on admin building? Is Izium really taken?
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  41. 0:50 - how could they have been withdrawn???? HOW?! There is not a single road, even dirt road. Russian huge movement occurred after they captured a hill overlooking these villages. From the top of the hill they could easily direct fire. Also one of the villages is lower so they could just get few tanks up close and rain death.
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  42. Nah, not even close. Besides - Ukraine could already do that using missiles for a long time - heavy Soviet missile artillery is roughly 80km+ double the range of M777. Ukraine also has plenty more of it as well as other systems. I do not even consider M777 more then a PR stunt.
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  43. UA forces are taking a massive beating as they failed to realize that they lost. Even if they have tiny gains eventually it is clear there is around zero chance of penetrating Russian defensive lines. So what is the point of attacking if they know there is no chance of gaining offensive objectives? This is total PR where any gains will be spinned as victory.
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  44. Nah, they are moving on these fronts (Donbass) every day. For past month. But movement is slow. 3km here, 5km there etc. Ukraine is large, even Donbass is large. It takes weeks to take large cities. Mykolaiv is about as big as Mariupol - you need massive forces to take these. Russians started the war with tiny forces. There was no way they could even occupy half of Ukraine with such forces. Heck, they started with forces (on Russian side not republics) needed to just take Kiev - all of forces involved. Ukrainian units are lightly equipped and unable to attack effectively. Thus they get bloodied by Russian tanks. See for example action near Brovary - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R926wyojcGg Yesterday Chechens fully taken all of Mariupol to the right of AzovStal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIRayJcGX9Y Still I bet another week, maybe. Ukrainian non Azov units are dispersing already and turning to civilian clothing, many getting arrested by Russians (I lost video link).
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  45. 3:1 in a city is low. I would start with 5:1 and go up from there. So Russians have at least 20k troops in Mariupol at the moment. Fight can go on for few more weeks, but lets not expect more - compare battle of Grozny - against battle hardened Chechens - 5 weeks. compare battle of Falujah against ISIS - 6 weeks. We are almost at week 3. So more then two weeks would be rather slow advance.
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  46. Russians are making preparations and Ukraine does not seem to have any element of surprise. I predict this will be similar to battle of Kursk where Ukraine will bleed out and be wiped out on counter.
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  47. Yes, but apparently they did manage to cross the river finally. Remember this was one of few crossings - all taken and destroyed. Also remember on the Kharkiv side Ukraine tried to do the same - also at least three times - so must have also taken heavy losses. It is now war of attrition and Russia is clearly winning it.
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  48. Ukraine is done for. 100% of their regular army is committed and they cannot hold the line. Russia still has at least 20 BTGs ready to enter Ukraine. Ukraine does have 24 brigades of light infantry left - but sending them against tanks, armed with just Javelins will be suicide. This is why pp are saying the west will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
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  49.  @kartikeyatiwari2502  DPA - reports it - maybe in a different video newer then this one. They have taken I think gelatin plant and are attacking another one.
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  50. Wow, 14000? Someone is lying. The original number was 2500. Where all these Nazis came from? I mean are they all concentrated in Mariupol only? Nah, I think maybe 4000 or original 2500. 14000 just seems to astronomical. Maybe I was wrong then and Mariupol will not last 10-14 days longer? I agree - wait at least 24h for AzovStal.
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