Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

  1.  @dogwhistle8836  If they taken Kiev then what? West would not accept any puppet government there & Z would try to take Kiev back. Ukraine has lost the war as they are getting further and further away from their victory condition while Russia is getting closer and closer.
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  2. They captures city center and admin building.
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  3. They slowed Ukrainians down and are bleeding them. They have not reached old DPR forts yet. I expect Russians to retake any land lost either this year or early next year. They simply need to bleed them a lot and crush in counter attack.
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  4. On Polish channel when I said they need to withdraw, one reply was "with what".
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  5. Ukraine is far stronger in propaganda then in actual combat. A lot of drone images were done by professional arm of UA army and released on official channels. Channel owner is spot on saying that any such large convoy takeout would be all over the news. Heck UA lies at least 2x or more then 3x as much as Russians - all armies loosing the war do that - see AM - AZ conflict. We had like 10 cities now, or more, claimed to be "retaken" when they never been taken. Its to the point where one should start ignoring 90% of what comes out of UA.
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  6. It took US 6 weeks to take out some untrained dudes in Falujah. And they had 1:10 advantage.
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  7. It feels Russians moved out of the whole Kharkiv area!
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  8. Russia did like 80% of their air strikes for past few days in Izium area. That is like 1000+ air strikes!
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  9. In here we can probably believe Ru more then Ua - we had same thing in Armenia war when they confirmed they lost a city after like literally every soldier there was dead + 2 days - like a day after Azerbaijan shown a video of them rising their flag there (!)
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  10.  @Ofasia777  Russian economy is not on war footing so it can produce quality stuff - heavy weapons like T-90M, modern aircraft etc. I expect them to add at least 300 tanks per year and around 100 aircraft per year based on pre war numbers. Add to it 100s of artillery pieces, missile systems, AA systems, armored personnel carriers etc. We are talking here about 2nd largest on earth military - industrial complex, not some bannana republic. For Ukraine it is 2nd hand ex Soviet garbage weapons as well as sprinkling on various hand me down NATO weapons - in very low numbers. As soon as Russia has numbers parity (troops) it will be easy going forward. This war is not optional for Russia - it is to be or not to be - thus costs are all acceptable. Sure Putin is going for lowest cost possible, but is willing to spend all it takes.
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  11. Russia is in no hurry, every week is plus for them. Time is firmly on Russia's side.
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  12. Maybe, they, wanted, them to go in? Where will the idiots go?
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  13. Nah, no credible info on this. Its not the first time either they "encircled" Russians. For being "encircled" these Russians are very calm.
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  14. Prigozhin will soon be geo located where Ukraine claims to still hold land ;)
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  15. So far zero confirmation on any of this.
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  16. Like I said, Seversk is like 2 max 3 days away. Ukraine is falling apart right now.
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  17. Well, more losses for Ukraine will happen. They lost the war, the only direction is more losses.
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  18. Before the war Russia was able to produce around 200 tanks per year max. I expect them to bump it up to 250 / 300. They also were able to add over 70 aircraft / heli per year, expect now over 100. They are actively making advanced missiles and drones in large numbers, expect even more production boost.
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  19. @mousse cake Nah. Fake news. Russians just started major offensive as per Ukraine. As per US they have added 11 BTGs to the front. This is 11k Russians. Does not sound like much but there are 12BTGs at Mariupol and total BTGs number is now a whopping 76. If these 11 and 12 from Mariupol attack things will be hard for Ukrainians. That is over 20k Russians. To stop them Ukraine needs at least 60k or better yet 80k of their own troops.
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  20. Slow 500m per day, at most, progress. Ukies sure are fighting hard for something of no value.
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  21. Please add to the next update Russian retreat from Kiev. They have retreated during the night past Ivankow. This was pre-planned operation. Looks like by tomorrow all troops on the left hand side of Kiev will be back in Belarus. I assume they will regroup and be sent to Donbass front. I also assume the whole right hand side of Kiev may join them up as well in the next few days. So it may not exactly be any "massive counter offensive" at all - Russians just moved back and Ukrainians just re occupy territory freed. I assume Russians simply had no chance of surrounding Kiev with forces deployed so they decided to use them elsewhere.
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  22.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  yeah, even low tech Tochka U can eventually get through. When US intercepted Saddam's missiles also one got through and killed over 30 people in barracks. It happens. But most people have memory span of like 2 weeks. No one remembers that US also had similar mishaps.
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  23. They have very good defenses there and Ukrainians cannot break them despite taking epic losses.
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  24.  @saattlebrutaz  Mobilized forces sent 1st do not need training as they left the army less then 2 years ago. They are young men - they do not have such heavy memory loss as to forget their training so quickly. Most seen combat - some extensive combat. So I would not worry. Also Russia will always have artillery. Lots of it.
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  25. There are some reports that 80% of Seversk has been taken - all the way to the river that divides the town. Serebrianka is probably not taken, Russians crossed the river behind it and attacked Seversk from the north. Troops in Serebrianka are surrounded.
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  26. Maybe its Mariupol style - to POW camp? I also pointed out how - no read, fields are open and Russians have high ground plus the fields from each side are under 4km away from Russian positions - i.e. well within tank fire. Only smaller groups running home could make it at night. And this is without any equipment. Only thing I can think of, and Ukraine never did it, would be to order all troops with 100% of the strength to attack north and break through.
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  27. Where will NATO get 1 million troops :)
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  28. Expect more attacks and more uber heavy losses. Russia needs to make the island into little fortress. Drones cannot easily get there as they are easily seen over the sea. Small drones can be taken care of by jamming. Without this Island Odessa port is of no use to Ukraine. With the island and some missiles systems on it, suddenly Ukraine has Odessa partially open. In this single attack Ukraine lost almost 100 KIA (!!!)
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  29.  @helgil6545  Sure it is! You need troops to build bridges, move them, to support and secure the other side etc. You need support etc. You need #s.
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  30. Even if UA by some luck established a pocket there - a bridgehead - it would face enormous problems - such as problems with supply & problems with getting hammered by artillery. I mean how would UA supply troops there? Speed boats? Helicopters? And what would that light infantry do there - try to attack inland against prepared defenses? This has only political value.
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  31. Imagine, Russians held off Ukraine offensive while on the other bank of the river. Now Ukraine wants to do an offensive, while weaker, Russia stronger ... and while Russia is protected by the river. I expect a huge number of losses for Ukraine as Russia creates multiple fire bags.
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  32. If Russians allow Kherson to fall before they have taken all of Donbass it would be a show of a huge weakness. They simply need to hold the city till Donbass is taken . I have no idea why they went so far north on left hand side of Dnieper. Zippo idea.
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  33. Not even close.
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  34.  @larsc.krogens3937  Yes, lets hope AFU have ordered a lot of sunflower seeds for their troops.
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  35.  @MikeAG333  Sure, whatever you say. We see how things look like when the conflict is frozen. And I doubt that Ukraine will have even 1sq km of Donbass.
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  36. Once encircled these forces can be destroyed on the cheap!
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  37.  @ApocDevTeam  Azov was a small part of the army - what about multiple non Azov brigades???? Normal Ukrainian soldiers did surrender but 1000s died. Both in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk large number of troops was destroyed, taken POW as well as 100s of major items of military equipment were captured. Russians even made an exhibition of it. Ukraine ordered retreat too late. Major losses were incurred. Same will be here. If the indeed retreat - them may even be surrounded. Why do they stick to these areas is a mystery. Supposedly b/c next line of defense is weaker and there is none after that.
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  38.  @Twothreedeparture  Clearly one should contact your professors at King's college in London and tell them that your masters was granted in error as you clearly are unable to write coherent thesis. Which was?
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  39. In few days we see how many troops Russia captured into a net. I heard that a single battalion managed to escape yesterday.
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  40. Just think about it, if Ukraine had 20k troops for the offensive, why would they need two battalions of Poles to show up? Something is not right. I think both are false.
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  41. Positional fight. Russians got Ukraine by the throat and are holding.
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  42. Russians need to step up their game as US is planning massive military spending on Ukraine. They either need to step up now or mobilize.
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  43. Well, UA are running out of troops. So its like a fight till someone runs out.
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  44.  @mosoni3437  Thus they are of use. The guy has very weak cardio system and cannot run more then 10m. Thus we know that he would be not even remotely close to the front line. Hence once we geo tag him we know actual front line must be far away, in a city as much as 1.5km or even 2km away.
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  45. As usual Ukraine made some huge claims of "advancements" that no one is able to confirm or these are for towns/ villages they already had.
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  46. No one expected Ukraine to fail so badly! Not even Russians!
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  47. Almost there - taking a very long time. Berets are only worn when there is no danger of being shot. They would never be worn in actual combat - its not WWII anymore - even then I think a lot of that was staged. Also these pp just freshly surrendered - note that their hands are up and not zip tied so they were not searched yet. If there are lots of pp on the video its unlikely its staged. Could be. Best way is to ID some of the "actors". As for a shave, this shows professional nature of Ukraine marines. I do not see any reason why "no shaving" would be allowed if I commanded a unit that was encircled. We see later on whatever its fake or not.
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  48. Multiple sources say Severdoneck is 80% held by Russians and only the factory is in UA hands.
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  49. Even if Russia looses this position it will just need to work harder to retake it in the future. Question is when - winter offensive or spring offensive?
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  50.  @pineapplesareyummy6352  I heard on military updates that the are around adivka (not just it but all surrounding area) has estimated 15000. All other numbers you give are roughly the same as I heard from same source. The 15000 did seem very, very high. He also pointed it to be very very high. The whole Donbass pocket - Sloviansk - Krematorsk I heard around 50,000. I am not there and do not work for either side intelligence so no clue why 15k for that small area. With a lot of other stuff the guy is spot on - so maybe he knows something more then others.
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