Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

  1. They are too strong there - no need to retreat.
    2
  2.  @larsc.krogens3937  Equally well with fresh UA fertilizer!
    2
  3. Russians will not easily move out of occupied areas even if they do not need them as they are holding a lot of Ukrainian troops. Removing troops from one area to another also means Ukraine would do the same. Besides, they have something to bargain with. Russia needs to capture all of Donbass and only then agree to freeze conflict - not before - i.e. all of Donetsk needs to be taken as all of Lugansk is already taken. I doubt this war will end before 2 months mark.
    2
  4. They are either fighting a delaying battle or are confident they can hold the city. After all, they know that large numbers of troops will be available very soon.
    2
  5.  @MyBigBoss  No they never captured Donbass. Not even once.
    2
  6.  @MyBigBoss  Putin does not need to redefine anything - Russian goals are well known - Donbass.
    2
  7.  @saeed7099  Sure, but not the lost land that Russia wants to keep. They were unable to reclaim any of it.
    2
  8. We see whatever they crossed the river in at least one point and can hold it. It would be vital for Russians to make sure any such crossing is quickly eliminated. So far I put it in rumors territory - I doubt they managed to cross - especially when its like 500m wide.
    2
  9. Its not just that ship in recent years, USS Miami as well. "According to official Navy statistics, from 1973 to. 1983 there were an average of 148 fires per year on U.S. ships or at shore bases" I guess most do not make the news. But heck, one fire on Russian ship ... only happens to Russians. Russian warships are far more packed with weapons then US ships so chances of a fire, accident etc. are greater.
    2
  10. It was. They mobilized.
    2
  11. No. That is not possible.
    2
  12. Even if they take it they will not hold it for long. It will be retaken by end of this year and Krasny Liman as well. I expect large losses of territory by spring 2023 & UA loosing more land to Russia than Russia lost to Ukraine in the last 6 weeks.
    2
  13.  @Ofasia777  Tanks pre war prod about 200 per year - I assume with overtime and weekends 300. Missiles are certainly in - look they just used a whopping 100 in one day. Each missile computer is made entirely in Russia so no issues there. Russia made military chips for many years. Sure they need to pay in rubles for all of this - but given how strong ruble is, no issues. The 300k is easy - they already have roughly that number signed up, paperwork done and in uniform. Russia and Soviets prepared for an army of millions & have experience dealing with armies in millions. I do not see any issues - just will needed of Putin to sign documents. Just exactly how modern the war is? Tanks, artillery, people, aircraft - all of this uses same logistics as in 1945. Tanks burn even about as much diesel as before. Artillery fires about as many shells as before. People are WAY over estimating "modern" war vs. what was out there 50 years ago.
    2
  14.  @jeffreyexposito3803  First Russia would need to take Kiev and Kharkov - they did not. 2nd it is difficult to predict where Russians will go. After all the war is to stop NATO and territorial gains are only secondary of limited importance - after all, Russia was to give all land back to UA in exchange for no NATO before the war.
    2
  15.  @Ofasia777  The pulled from storage numbers - I watched a video - show missing at most few hundred tanks. Yes, there is a guy that counts all Russian tanks in storage - and he did count before and after the war - recent one - and only few hundred were missing. Hundreds of components. Yet they all seem to be made in Russia. Someone is clearly lying. Ukraine uses massive force not small mobile units. They attack with overwhelming force - like they sent two full BTGs against a single Russian company in Kherson few days ago. Or when they did Kharkiv operation with around 8 times numerical advantage. Most of equipment is old Soviet stuff and they have not gotten any modern NATO equipment. The quality of equipment is very heavy on Russian side - i.e. Russia has far and wide more modern stuff than Ukraine has. All they need is troop numbers - i.e. it is hard to stop masses of Ukrainian meat even if you have heavy tech edge. Now with mobilization numbers will equalize and Russia can use its tech advantage. There is no way Ukraine can win a war with Russia that is five times bigger, has huge modern military - industrial complex and has 1000s of nukes. Come on. This may have been OK if war was optional for Russia - like say Vietnam for US, but its not. Eventually Ukraine will run out of people or equipment well before Russia does. Also your 1500 tanks are not exactly confirmed by anyone - like I said - the guy that counts tanks sees only few hundred missing from storage. There are no reliable sources for losses and all losses are just a guess - but I assume Ukraine is taking far and wide heavier losses than Russian side.
    2
  16.  @davidchang5265  But these were optional wars. Korea was part of UN and both China and US simply needed status quo. Vietnam was just stopping communism. Here we have a war that is not optional. Russia needs to win as its very existence as sovereign state is at hand. I.e. Russia needs to win as much as it needed to win vs. Nazi Germany. Thus, total mobilization and nukes will be the last acts of Russia. Clearly we can agree that Ukraine cannot win.
    2
  17.  @keithpalmer4547  You mean captured equipment will be moved through Crimea over the bridge? Maybe, but I think there is more direct route.
    2
  18.  @mindbodyinstitute2652  Yes, they are doing orderly retreat on multiple fronts. There is also info about fresh new units being sent to other fronts. Russians no longer want to surround Kiev as it has proven to difficult for forces employed - so they will remove troops, refresh them and redeploy on Donbass front or simialr. I guess the aim of holding a lot of Ukrainian troops occupied near Kiev was not really worth it.
    2
  19. The ships bottom valves were opened. that is how it sunk to the bottom. Its old ship. Not worth fixing. There were at least 2 buk missiles systems going to Brdiansk. So I wonder whatever city did not have air defenses at all or they were insufficient to stop larger attack.
    2
  20. I doubt Ukraine will hold Lyman.
    2
  21. There were videos of trucks driving over the bridge - you just need to be careful. There is also another bridge a bit further as well as over the river transport.
    2
  22. Well, sure - if we go even more into the past, most Russians and Ukrainians are .... Poles. If we continue even more the Poles are Persians. And finally it all ends up in Africa.
    2
  23. Battle of Sloviansk has just started! Russians crossed the river.
    2
  24. I am not sure about Konotop - we see - its a lot of land to give up for future bargaining. Or maybe Russia realized Ukraine will not bargain so there is no point of keeping any extra land to play around with. These lines were exposed and that land took a lot of effort to secure. If it served no purpose then just give it back and concentrate on what is needed.
    2
  25. Strategic - they have fixed Ukrainians near Kiev, same as fake landings have fixed Ukrainians at Odessa same as fake Belarusian invasion has fixed Ukrainians near northern border. I.e. fixed units cannot move - they are fixed.
    2
  26.  Alfred Churchill  Ahh, so KKK is now part of US government and US army? You just ignored the situation. I go against Nazi. You can go ahead and join them. Stephan Bandera is official hero of Ukraine. Get it? Official. Not some extremist fringe element like Proud Boys in the US. They have 30m tall monuments to a know murderer of over a million people. They have government kept, place of honor, cemeteries to fallen SS soldiers. They teach "alternative" version of history in school. Do you get it or are you so brainwashed?
    2
  27. Severodonetsk is about 50%+ taken now. It will still take few more days, maybe up to a week, but no more then that.
    2
  28. Same thing occurred in Kiev region. In a lot of places. Russians moved back to regroup and will probably re-deploy in Donbass. So there was no massive counter offensive.
    2
  29.  @Energetiker  Well we see what happens next. All pulled troops need to be resupplied, regrouped and the n re-deployed. I am unsure why they are returning to Russia with any shame. They did their job. The whole thing was run from the beginning in a strange way, there was only a single throw, while every Russian military book states 3. Maybe there was hope of quick encirclement and Ukrainian negotiation which did not materialize so they did orderly retreat. They were holding a lot of Ukrainian troops there but also had constant supply issues so issues >> holding Ukrainian troops there. Also their present without encircling Kiev lost political traction - same as all other cities. These were merely blocked. There never was any push to take them. I don't think too many people got poisoning sickness - there never was too many people in that area, maybe a battalion or two. More troops maybe at outskirts of the zone. Once Brovary front lost its impetus and Russians "got stuck" decisions had to be made. So about a week ago order came to retreat - when they started to dig trenches there was already plan to retreat - it takes at least 2 days to plan to retreat a brigade, so whole group maybe a week. I expect Russians to retreat in multiple other areas & concentrate on Donbass. We see what they do at Kherson - city is on the other side of the river - they may decide to give it up.
    2
  30. One has to note that foreign troops were used for the most dangerous missions, for the most crazy stuff - so very high losses are expect. Are these true losses? Who knows - even if Russians over estimated by 2x its a still high number of pp to die and overall number of volunteers looks low!
    2
  31. Well, given that Russians fly 300x per day and Ukrainians 5x per day and its been like this after about 10 days I start to wonder what definition does the west use in this conflict for "air superiority".
    2
  32. Russians are on safari! Taking big cats left right and center.
    2
  33. Well, same as they evacuated from Azov ;) Ask yourself simple question - did they withdrew given all the red paint of the map? If they withdrew in common meaning then why so much read all over the place. They withdrew from 3 villages. So why they lost 9?
    2
  34. But UK blocked Russian request for UN. Wonder how UK can explain that (this was Monday I believe) UK holds the presidency.
    2
  35. Kharkiv front is a mystery. Maybe Russians no longer care? Or maybe they are planning something?
    2
  36. Russians supposedly cut Ukrainians from sea access. Not sure whatever its only AzovStal area all of Mariupol.
    2
  37.  @Ktaurus26  Are you sure? That would be big news.
    2
  38. They may have more fighters and helicopters from the west - we may find out say in few weeks that say Poland delivered some MiG-29s after all. Same with helicopters.
    2
  39. I say way more then that - more like 80-90k plus another 100k allies.
    2
  40. Come on Wagner, finish it, it's boring.
    2
  41. How many POWs? Did most of UA forces manage to retreat or there are at least few hundred POWs?
    2
  42. Just wait till all Kiev forces join in the attack and all Mariupol forces from the south. This shapes up to be an epic combat. Ukraine cannot easily move all their troops form Kiev area - they eliminated by faint 1/3 of UA army!
    2
  43.  @j.dasilva4567  If it was such a good weapon (and Spike BTW is better as it can change targets mid flight and has some other options). then why 1000s of them were delivered yet they have so few successes. Ukraine had around 10,000 guided missiles, out of which 6000 were new. US and allies sent over 1000 guided missiles (roughly) and at least 10,000+ unguided missiles (latest model such as NLAW). Ukraine had probably 100,000 unguided missiles of all types. Neither Javelin, nor NLAW have 100% success rate. Average is about 6 hits to take out a tank. However, the issues is actually hitting the tank. This is why tanks are soooo much better then these systems and thus so much more expensive. Tanks have plenty of ammo, rather thick armor and good sensors. They are also quite mobile. BTW, Spike (like Javelin but better) have together with helicopter missiles about 10% of all kills in AM-AZ war.
    2
  44. Austrian guy is showing slight bias towards Ukraine.
    2
  45. We are slowly seeing momentum go back to Russians signaling end of failed Ukrainian offensive.
    2
  46. Yeah, BUT in Adivka - for which there has been battles for like 3 months, near New York, there is reported to be 15000 in and around (!!!) Yeah, not a typo, 15000 - 15 and three zeros.
    2
  47. I think we can say that Lysychansk is taken. They are just sweeping the area now.
    2
  48.  @dennisg1460  Really? I did not see a single video ;) They captured few tanks, including T-90M Few IFVs and maybe few artillery systems. Come on. It was two brigades ;) When Russians took Lisichiansk / Severdonetsk they captured few dozen vehicles of different types - and that was not from two Ukrainian brigades but from like 10. They had them on display. This myth of Ukraine capturing a lot of equipment evaporated with Ghost of Kiev.
    2
  49. Told you Ukraine got planes from somewhere! Probably Poland. About half are now scrap. MiG-29As. "Spare parts". You can have whole plane dismounted and sent as "spare parts". Massive Ukrainian offensive is now a new way to say "vaporware". See multiple "massive offensives" Ukraine so far has done zippo. Not even one.
    2
  50. Non Russian flag ships can ignore Ukrainian threats. Imagine they sunk Turkey flagged ship. It would not be pretty. Russian flagged ships may need escort.
    2