Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

  1.  @AlbertZonneveld  They seem to be plenty of units there on the salient - so I now think that there is no way they give up that position. The word is that after Donbass Odessa operation may be next. I.e. they are defeating Ukraine in detail.
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  2. No. No political apatite for escalation with Russia. Also no need.
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  3.  @danieltherocketmaster4065  We get images from Russians themselves - they will want to prove its just damaged. Especially if its going to be clear it was not a missile. Which I doubt it was. Also even if Moskva radar was so old it could not see (doubtful - it had CIWS and helicopters / aircraft fly low) her escorts would see - you can see this in action when some old missiles were fired at US ships in the Gulf - the escorts took them out, not targets.
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  4. That would not be very smart as there is no easy path to go back over the river later on for Russians.
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  5. At current rate Ukraine will reach sea of Azov in 16 years ;) There were no major movements on the ground in the last month by either side. Conflict is static.
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  6. Yes, Russians were too thin. They are still too thin. They need way more troops even for control of much more limited territory. Basically they have eaten with their eyes not their mouth (or they have bitten more then they could chew).
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  7. Go home!
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  8. Yeah, he is good at that.
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  9. They may rest a bit or go for chasiv yar. War will continue. Better question is what will happen once whole Donbass is liberated. Will Russia stop?
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  10. Nah, the damage was so minimal they put out the fire within a day.
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  11.  @alfatejpblind6498  Yes, I am 100% sure that whatever the outcome, western media will say it was a success for Ukraine.
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  12. But why no video? Why no investigation of war crimes. You can say no one alive to do video. But why no international investigation? WHY?
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  13. Russia needs to deploy like 50 attack helicopters and dozens of aircraft there to catch UA forces in the open and reduce them. This offensive is a big opportunity for the Russians.
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  14.  @levbolotnikov6020  This depends on whom is telling the truth. Russians say city divided into three parts. Ukraine claims they hold most of it. Truth I am sure is somewhere in between.
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  15.  @paulwhillas6494  No it cannot. Russia has longest range artillery in the world - around 2km more than the west. MistaB with 60 caliber ultra long gun. What air defenses? What artillery? They have few times less. What armor - they have lot less as well.
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  16.  @gj1234567899999  The ship on fire is gone. Two others superficial damage. I think Odessa operation, if ever even planned for real is long ways off.
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  17. I would say maybe a company plus and I doubt they will be encircled for long. They either move out or Russians recapture positions.
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  18. No, in some areas 17km. Some less. Max is 17km.
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  19.  @Idk_about_anything  True, but they did not hold Kherson since 2014 till recently and Crimea was fine. Kherson was never asked for by Russia in peace negotiations - it was recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and recognition of Donbass. Nothing more!
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  20. By your account Ukraine has zero chances of winning any pro longed conflict.
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  21. God, how boring, offensive #100 by Ukraine. With similar results to offensive #99.
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  22. Poland preparing cemetery for 1700 - Polish sources claim 1200 spots already taken.
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  23.  @aramisio2  Well, yes, we know they lost a lot of land in last few days. DPA is one of the first guys that report it. Did you... watch the video?
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  24.  @sonaruo  Problem is the plan seen widely by Russia is to make new border on the river. Another problem is that Russia crossed the river in Kherson.
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  25. Nah, they are too slow. In 3 to 4 weeks they will no long have advantage and ride will turn. By end of the year Russians will start pushing them off. I doubt they have much chance of taking Mariupol in the next month or so. After that I expect Russians to maybe take Zaporozia.
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  26. War is at the speed of nose bleed. Ukraine is slowly loosing blood but have plenty of it.
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  27. They are uninterested in Mikolayv region and even stuff above it as Russia plans to rip off the right hand side of Dniepr river. Which is... on the other side. This all feels here as political bargaining chips - same as Kiev.
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  28.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  Fully agree - no clue why they went there. Too much ambition on commanders part to take as much as he can.
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  29.  @kiriltzenev5955  Maybe they want to use them after the war?
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  30. Why? They advance.
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  31. Sure, but they are cheaper than air defenses.
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  32.  @SmileZero  Maybe, but it will take a long time to mop up resistance in small pockets. Besides, I am not even convinced all of AzovStal is taken. Maybe 60%. I think what DPR mean is that they cut city into two. That makes more sense to me.
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  33. Depends on size - I expect few 1000s of soldiers to cross. If they encounter no resistance more can come. The Russians will have to deal with the crossings and divide their forces. But given Russian reserves in the area I would not worry too much about this.
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  34. I am not 100% sure both of these were ever marked as captured by Russians on many maps. Many maps do not have Russians in physical control of the road.
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  35. That is plainly idiotic. Do you think Russia / Soviets do not have weapons for millions of people? Really? WWII did not teach you anything at all, did it? They probably have more guns then both men and women from 18 to 65. Maybe 2x as much. Same with all other equipment.
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  36. This capture has zero usefulness in any negotiations. Come on.
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  37. It could be so they can retreat. But Kiev is too stupid for such things.
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  38. Well, Russia already won this war. Operational end is in sight.
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  39. Sporne :) Yeah I just noticed it ...
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  40.  @youareliedtobythemedia  Yeah, like Ukraine would ever allow any referendums.
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  41. The so called "last hurrah". Once UA forces are depleted Russia can start major counter offensive. I do not think NATO will enter UA.
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  42.  @kiriltzenev5955  Hmm, actually strangely that region is less Russian then to the wither left or right of them.
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  43. To do offensive you need forces. Ukraine does not have forces to conduct anything then a local counter attack. Any troops that retreat from these areas are more or less useless as they maybe have their personal weapons with them. So it would take weeks to even re-organize and rearm them.... if there is something to rearm them with. Ukraine did not do any offensive operations for more then two months now. They are about to loose up to 10k troops in Donbass. I doubt this is the time they will find something to do major operations with.
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  44. Russians need to milk them - wear them down till they have no more reserves - then with their own reserves strike back!
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  45. Its op sec. Russians are not good at telling their own pp what is going on.
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  46. It would be sort of super cool if Russians recapture Krasny Lyman. They need more reserves.
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  47.  @peacebewu  That is rather trivial - they have not enough pp for a huge front line. There are like 600 pp per 20km. Or even less. Plus UA has huge # advantage.
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  48. I think its a bit late - Russian terms will be brutal.
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  49.  @jeredmarkoff2442  Why he is correct. What will Ukraine do once Russia deploys the 300k or more likely 500k troops?
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  50.  @jeredmarkoff2442  LOL, and this is why Ukraine did enact a set of laws, months ago, that prohibit anyone from leaving of military age. Also that is the reason they are hunting even night clubs to get people! Yep - Ukrainian "volunteers" captured trying to cross to Poland at night. Also same "volunteers" pay around 2000 USD, if memory serves me, to cross the border to border guards. Yep, totally wanting to fight! You can see them all over Poland and other countries Ukrainian refugees went to. I guess they all are fighting ... remotely.
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