Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Balkan Mapper" channel.

  1. Nah, I suspect large offensive in the coming days, maybe a week. 2nd throw of that offensive will be troops that retreated from Kiev front.
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  2. Nah, Russians are slowly rolling them in Donbass. Just opportunistic taking / surrounding of Kiev failed and Russians will concentrate now on Donbass. It is difficult to say what Russian plans are at this stage.
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  3. Ukraine has far more then 200k.
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  4. They lost it now and Russian counter attack taken previously held town on the other side of the river. Epic failure. Like 3 BTGs + worth of troops eliminated. Epic fail.
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  5. Russians crossed river today near Lyman and started Battle of Sloviansk - they largest city in Ukraine controlled Donbass!
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  6.  @celebrim1  Well, it took Russians 5 weeks to clear Grozny and 6 weeks for US to take Fallujah. When center is taken one can claim city is take, but it may take weeks to clear enemy from every house - so the other side can say "not taken yet". Same thing here. Mariupol center may fall by the weekend. By say Wednesday or Thursday these forces may finish regrouping. Then they need to move somewhere to attack. Then attack. Then actually push enemy. So by next weekend we may see them moving behind units of Donbas army. And if these units don't escape it will take more days to actually encircle them. Then more days to tighten encirclement. Then a long time to finally finish them off. At that point Putin can simply end the war or continue - we don't know his exact goals. We have stated goals but they are also kind of fluid as to interpretation.
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  7. Today UA troops for the first time not only refused order to attack but also fired on Military Police that came in to arrest and disarm them. If things progress as it is there will not be Kiev Regime by end of this year - i.e. Zielinski will be deposed by his own pp.
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  8. Irpin was never taken by Russians. Makarov was also never taken. Chernihiev is fully surrounded (just recently) don't know about Sumy. Ukraine is not too close to Kherson - they have no been able to get closer then 5km. Russians have won major battle at Izum and are moving to surround and eliminated army defending Donbass. On Plus side it looks like Russians may freeze conflict after taking only Donbass. We see.
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  9. Few small villages taken today, no big changes. It was holiday in Russia. Also heavy shelling by Ukraine of civilian areas of Donbass - I guess to help celebrate Russia day. Many civilians killed. Why not report that!
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  10. She represents the majority. But not all.
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  11. I have similar feeling to his - I bet its activity of both sides - for example in Donbass Ukraine did not even do a larger counter attack in a month or so - they are totally on defense only.
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  12. Russians crossed river near Lyman and started battle of Slaviansk!
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  13. They lost over 1000 tanks by now. At least 800 permanently. They need at least 400-500 tanks per month to just cover their losses. But the west cannot provide them even close to 400-500 tanks per month. So Russians are patiently waiting till they run dry not just in tanks but artillery.
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  14.  @moist_ointment  But it cannot supply - we can see it today. They simply do not have enough equipment. Ukraine had more equipment then all of Europe combined. Sanctions have failed. Russian central bank just dropped interest rates today to 14%. Russian ruble is higher then before the war. Russian bond yields are at exactly same level as before the war showing confidence in Russian industry. As an example, Polish bond yields are up over 2% - i.e. there is far less confidence there. The GDP idiocrasy is exactly WHY the west under estimated Russia - its tiny! Too bad they did not realize that Russia supplies tons of raw materials which are needed to make expensive stuff. Without raw stuff, there cannot be value added! So Russia punches about 10x more then its GDP, i.e. about 2x the power of Germany.
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  15.  @123J0KER123  Defense news Asia has a good research with sources. Russians are in hostile territory in Kherson, but in Izium it is neutral and more east it is friendly to Russians and hostile to Ukraine. Ukrainians are taking huge losses as well, hence their inability to mount any large counter attack.
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  16.  @ROM-cr1mt  It is a well known fact. Azov units are pure blood Nazis - they trace their lineage to SS Galitzen. In Ukraine, Azov is same level of a regiment as SS Regiment Adolf Hitler. I.e. they are not Neo Nazi - they are the Nazi. Plenty of them admit that on video and plenty of videos show their Nazi links. They even have identical symbols, with dark sun, wolf angel etc. They have these on their tanks so you know when you are dealing with SS. They are the power behind Zielinski - he even tried to introduce them to lesser power (Greece) but half of the parliament walked out. There is like 30m statue of Stephan Bandera near Lviv. Ukrainian Nazism is called Banderism. German equivalent is Hitler, Italian is Musolini and through not exactly Nazi (but similar enough) Stalin for Russia/ Soviets. Bandera statue and associated holidays etc. is similar to having Giant monument to Hitler in Germany and Hitler Holidays. They have well over 100 smaller monuments. There is no question Ukraine is very Nazi oriented. They have the laws, they have monuments, they have military.
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  17.  @zacharyannal3458  It feels that they will add Melitpol to the cities under attack soon. Once Donbass front collapses it feels Odessa may be next.
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  18. Nah, not a chance. Previous attempt failed miserably, with much stronger forces. Fenced off area is now tiny. The encirclement is multi layer. It would be a miracle if few of them (like a 5%) made it through. The also, finally, let all civilians out - so their end is coming.
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  19.  @d.olivergutierrez8690  Succeed in what? Few dozen of them escaping would somehow change the war?
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  20. CNN ideocracy?
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  21. Cannot wait for Russians to deploy all troops from northern front near Izium and smash. Either down or towards Dnipro. Then forces from Mariupol will go north. Suddenly world will wake up. Check and mate. We see. Ukraine cannot reinforce. Russians will have numbers on their side. This maneuver, if a success, will be studied for the next 100 years.
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  22.  @karlyo6937  Yeah, and it took like many months - I think close to a year for Aleppo.
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  23. What stalemate, they are encircling (they cut the road already, about 17,000 Ukrainian troops in Donbass. It will take many weeks to get such large number of troops to be liquidated or surrender.
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  24.  @nayname  Oh I am sure they do. This operation was run with such small number of troops they easily have 3x as many. Problem is quality of these extra troops.
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  25. LOL, best option for Ukraine would be to seek peace. Chances of reclaiming Crimea + Donbass are zero. I.e. no chance at all. It is possible Russia may take whole right hand side of Dniepr River. This is why Ukraine should seek terms. Russia does not have / never had plans to take all of Ukraine.
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  26. Nah, they are fighting mostly in Donbass now and slowly moving - cannot see tiny advances of few km on a map.
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  27. Already collapsed. Huge losses. Hundreds killed and wounded and dozens of vehicles destroyed. At least one BTG eliminated. They may renew but I expect more of the same.
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  28.  @tylerw6438  At current rate it will be a miracle if Donbass front does not collapse, at least partially, by May 9th. If all continues like now Ukraine will be totally lost in 10 days or so. I suggest they should surrender now, while they still have some negotiation power.
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  29. Yeah, like Czechs would know :)
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  30. They were Ukrainian territories.
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  31.  @borivojhoudek5172  Moscow regime does not control UA troops - UA Kiev does - so their troops refused to attack (not the first time) but for the first time refused to disarm or allow any arrests with use of force. This is just like 1917 before the revolution.
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  32. Wait a month or so for Russia to take Donbass it's just matter of time now.
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  33. 0:20 - that is more then US has ;)))) I am sure they will get 1000s of tanks and armored vehicles as well as 1000s of artillery systems. For now they have to deal with ... 4.
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  34. God no!. Russia is creaming Ukrainians. For past week they are moving every day forward. Remember during WWII it took like 6 months or more to take right hand side of Dniper. And now you are expecting tiny Russian force to do it in 6 days. Relax, they are moving, taking land, give it time. By May 9th they need to have Ukrainians in Donbass at least partially surrounded.
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  35. Its much more - Russians moved back at least 50km.
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  36. They were threatened with it at the start - but its not as important as Ukraine for them. Besides, both are making a mistake - so idiots do idiotic things, how could Putin stop that.
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  37. Italian invasion of France ;))))
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  38.  Doğu Türkistan Mapping  Turkey and .... Serbia? I guess anything is possible now.
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  39. Huge gains today by Russia. About half a dozen villages taken. They are now on outskirts of Slavinsk! Largest city in Donbas under UA control!
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  40. That is the dumbest move they ever did - they are now officially a target & they gained absolutely zippo for it. Epic mistake. They given a lot for nothing in return!
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  41. They wanted to move out a week ago but Z said no. So now they loose 20k troops.
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  42. ​ @fallencobra5197  And if that is true then pigs fly - Oryx is one of the discredited sites that "visually confirms". Out of 12 destroyed Ukrainian vehicles from a video they only added 5 to Ukraine and 1 somehow to Russia. Other 6 ignored. One of many examples of "visually confirmed".
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  43. Most people say a month to 3 months, depends on how much sacrifice Ukraine wants to do.
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  44. Nah, another day of the offensive on all fronts. Russians are now crushing Ukrainian defenses everywhere. At least as compared to say a week ago.
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  45. @TheLapster Russia has right now about 80k+ combat troops in Ukraine. Plus max 70k for republics and other allies. So max 150k+ They have at least another 15k over the border in Russia. Possibly more.
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  46.  @mrforce301  If Ukraine was not running out of tanks they would ask for some other systems they are low on, like say long range drones. You can see what they are low on by asking for it. Using your example of money exchange, the exchange when say running low on USD would ask people and anyone for more of it. If they had plenty they would lower the spread or even refuse to take it unless it was for like free. BTW, I do travel the world and you would not imagine how hard sometimes it is to get rid of USD not for free. Sometimes you have to beg people and they are doing you a "favor" by taking it. If you using some obscure currency then the spread can be ridiculous even at large exchange. They will pay you say equivalent of 30 US cents of say 1 CAD. So yes, in money exchanges, when they do not need certain currency then they will actively not ask for it and shun it away or only take it for free. At the same location close to Chinese border, the yuan was like 100x more popular then USD - showing little red bills got a smile from people - they wanted it - any amount. Spread was almost not existant. As you can see Ukraine is asking for certain things, but more for these it NEEDS. Same as money changer you used - he or she will take a lot of different stuff, but some stuff they love more then others. By looking into their eyes you can tell what they desire. Also spread.
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  47. Yep, like I said, Ukraine lost around 30k dead already. 3x for wounded and you have 120k. That is like 50% of their army! God, this war is going so slow - come on Russia - send some more troops and end it before end of summer!
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  48.  @celebrim1  a) if it was true he would not recognize Z as the legitimate leader. He also does not have even close to the force needed to take Kiev. Finishing off Azov in Mariupol is denazification. b) Demilitarization - removal of military power. It can be said to be already achieved or close to it c) Peace keeping - simply having bases in the new republics - depending on Z we see how many there are, so far 2 but if Z insists there can be more. He does not want USSR back as he himself seen problems with it. Not even close. That is why there are "republics" not Russia. Get it? There is Belarus - but not Russia. See? He is also only interested in areas where there is no colonization needed - for example, in the east. He does not need stasi back - Russia never left that area off - they always had stasi - same thing as US has CIA - that never went away for either. You can read about the ideas openly in Putin's favorite newspaper. Komsomolska Pravda. There it is outlined exactly like I did. The question is how long will Z wait. If he waits too long half of Ukraine will secede.
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  49.  @JamesC785  If Russians did not want to fight they would not be on the attack. So I brand it fake news. However, the fact that Ukraine did not do any attacks at all is concerning and we have video evidence of whole battalions disarmed. So one battalion refusing to attack and firing on MPs seems plausible continuation. Maybe there will be a video of the event as well.
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  50.  @jakekingsbury6961  No there is a Ukrainian guy showing military situation in Ukraine. He reported it first. Others just reported videos and even videos of whole battalions (!!!) not willing to fight. You can do "acting" with say 30 people - but its hard to have 500 actors plus as well as senior commander actors - it is difficult to fake.
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