Comments by "WhatAboutTheBee" (@WhatAboutTheBee) on "The Russian Dude"
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@Cad6638 no sir, we are not. The tally is not "casualties" in the Western sense of KIA and WIA summed. The tally published is for KIA only and specifically does not include WIA.
The tally includes troops from the LPR, DPR, Chechens, Wagner, etc. The Ukrainians aren't sorting them by category of who is fighting for the russians. If the trooper is fighting for russia, that counts.
I will suggest that the ratio of 3:1 of WIA to KIA recognizes proper medevac. The russians do not offer Western style medevac. This drives the WIA numbers down and frankly, the KIA numbers up. A wounded trooper who does not receive treatment dies.
Further, the figure of 900K quoted above is for all units and not the number of regular russian army, which is far smaller. Additionally, russia cannot strip every soldier from every location other than Ukraine, just to send them to die in Ukraine. russia has commitments in Syria, for example, and also must maintain forces in the far east.
Western estimates, supported by satellite surveillance, showed that russia invaded with 190,000 troops, with a large portion of that being Rosgvardia packing parade uniforms.
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@johnallen6945 you are quite welcome John.
There are further points of interest.
Let us start with force concentration. The analysis you provided above suggests that the forces are uniformly distributed. In general, the analysis is true, a 3:1 advantage is required. In specific, it is where the force is applied that is of interest. Focusing 10,000 troops against one kilometee, against 10,000 spread out over 100 kilometers is going to be well in excess of 3:1
Yet we can use the ratio to suggest russia never had the numbers to invade. Russia invaded with 190,000. If we add in Wagner, LPR, DPR, Chechens and Wagner, we get north of 300K, but certainly less than 400K. They faced a Ukrainian Army estimated to be, at the time 200K. This is less than the 3:1 ratio.
Winning the fight is one thing. Occupying the ground is another. You have to hold the ground and suppress resistance. Nominally, that is 20 troopers per 1000 population. This means russia needed 880,000 troops to occupy Ukraine. They never gad that number. Further, that is for a passive population. A restive population, which engages in partisan activities (ahem, Ukrainians are actively engaging in this now, in occupied territories) requires ~75 per 1000. This implies a russian force of 3,300,000.
Never had the numbers
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@bigboy9693 here are some more english words for you, simp
Let us examine russia's glorious battlefield accomplishments.
The glorious russian retreat from Kyiv. Such goodwill from russians, actually driven out.
The glorious russian retreat from Snake Island. Such goodwill from russians, actually driven out.
The glorious Moskva cruiser, bravely defending marine life from Ukrainian missiles. Stopping the missiles from landing in the water. Admirable concern for marine life.
The glorious russian retreat from Kharkiv. Such goodwill from russians, actually driven out.
The glorious russian retreat from Lyman. Such goodwill from russians, driven out.
The glorious russian retreat from Kherson. Such goodwill from russia, driven out.
The humiliating russian advance towards Bakmut. 29 kilometers in a YEAR! A phyrric victory only exceeded by the capture of the tiny town of Soledar, prewar population 10,490. At the cost of 20,000 Wagner dead
At this rate, it will be centuries before russian troops ever see Kyiv.
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@bigboy9693 You know how to win wars Dmitry? Logistics and raw economic power, industrial output wins wars, not sending cruise missiles into apartment buildings.
The West has sent a bunch of HIMARS launchers and innumerable GMLRS munitions to fire from them.
How many HIMARS launchers will Ukraine require to win? 32, but that's not how many Ukraine will use. They will use more. Lots more. Russia hasn't been able to succesfully target one launcher, but the West will continue to supply new launchers. Good luck with that Dmitry.
It is not the quantity of launchers that is important, it is the quantity of missiles. The next NDAA 2023 includes 106,000 GMLRS missiles in the authorization. Open wide! Learn how to swallow russia.
GLSDB are now authorized, as well as Western tanks. Are you feeling lucky russia?
How long until jets? ATACMS? Kerch Strait bridge go boom.
How long will Victory take? Western resolve, Ukrainian resolve is for the long haul. Who cares how long it takes. 1 year, 5 years, 20 years? It does not matter. russia will be driven out of Ukraine. 115,00 russian dead so far. That is in 11 months, roughly 11.5K/month. At this rate, russia will incur 690,000 cargo 200 in 5 years. Makes me smile! 🙂
Remember that bit about economic power winning wars? russian GDP is ~1.8T USD. The countries supplying Ukraine have a combined GDP of 40T USD. Long term war is completely about logistics. Not firing the gun once, but firing over and over, but most importantly keeping it supplied. The economic advantage of the West to russia is 40 to 1.8 or a 22:1 advantage. If all things remain the same, russia has a 22:1 shortfall.
But things aren't going to remain the same. Dear leader putin cut off European gas (meaning no income from Europe). Europe put a price cap on russian oil (meaning no profit from Europe). So go ahead russia, try to sell your shite elsewhere. Watch the Chinese and Indians negotiate russia on price into a hole. Which they have. The cap is $60, current trading in Ural Crude is ~$50/barrel. So the russian petro-economy will slowly implode, making the 22:1 economic ratio even steeper.
The sanctions continue to constrict the russian economy. Even the russian central bank is declaring that the russian economy is shrinking. The state bank lies of course, the russian economy is collapsing.
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@bigboy9693 Here is some military science for a russian troll. In order for russia to win the war, russia needs roughly a 3:1 advantage in troop numbers. The Ukrainian Army is estimated to be ~700K, therefore, russia needs to attack with 2.1 million troops. russia has nowhere near those number of troopers, so russia can never conquer Ukraine.
Should russia miraculously conquer Ukraine, the occupation begins. Occupation is the hard part, conquering is the easy part. Conquering is the part russia seems incapable of achieving but that's the easy part.
Occupation. For a docile population, such as russian sheep, military science indicates 20 troops per 1000 civilian population. With the population of Ukraine at 44 million, russia would need to occupy with 880,000 troopers IF THE POPULATION WAS DOCILE.
For a restive population, with partisan activity, such as the people of Ukraine, the military science of occupation dictates 75 troopers per 1000 of population in occupation. For a Ukrainian population of 44 million, the REALITY is that russia would need to field 3,300,000 troops to occupy Ukraine. russia has nowhere close to those numbers. Further, it must be generational, so 3.3M troops for a generation or 20 years. russia simply doesn't have the stamina
russia cannot conquer Ukraine due to insufficient numbers and russia cannot occupy Ukraine due to insufficient numbers, consequently the war will grind on and on for russia. With the concomitant casualties inherent for the attacker.
russia has lost. The fighting may not be over, but russia has lost. Never had the numbers. Never will.
Got that Moskal?
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@graemepeters5717 You know how to win wars Dmitry? Logistics and raw economic power, industrial output wins wars, not sending cruise missiles into apartment buildings.
The West has sent a bunch of HIMARS launchers and innumerable GMLRS munitions to fire from them.
How many HIMARS launchers will Ukraine require to win? 32, but that's not how many Ukraine will use. They will use more. Lots more. Russia hasn't been able to succesfully target one launcher, but the West will continue to supply new launchers. Good luck with that Dmitry.
It is not the quantity of launchers that is important, it is the quantity of missiles. The next NDAA 2023 includes 106,000 GMLRS missiles in the authorization. Open wide! Learn how to swallow russia.
GLSDB are now authorized, as well as Western tanks. Are you feeling lucky russia?
How long until jets? ATACMS? Kerch Strait bridge go boom.
How long will Victory take? Western resolve, Ukrainian resolve is for the long haul. Who cares how long it takes. 1 year, 5 years, 20 years? It does not matter. russia will be driven out of Ukraine. 115,00 russian dead so far. That is in 11 months, roughly 11.5K/month. At this rate, russia will incur 690,000 cargo 200 in 5 years. Makes me smile! 🙂
Remember that bit about economic power winning wars? russian GDP is ~1.8T USD. The countries supplying Ukraine have a combined GDP of 40T USD. Long term war is completely about logistics. Not firing the gun once, but firing over and over, but most importantly keeping it supplied. The economic advantage of the West to russia is 40 to 1.8 or a 22:1 advantage. If all things remain the same, russia has a 22:1 shortfall.
But things aren't going to remain the same. Dear leader putin cut off European gas (meaning no income from Europe). Europe put a price cap on russian oil (meaning no profit from Europe). So go ahead russia, try to sell your shite elsewhere. Watch the Chinese and Indians negotiate russia on price into a hole. Which they have. The cap is $60, current trading in Ural Crude is ~$50/barrel. So the russian petro-economy will slowly implode, making the 22:1 economic ratio even steeper.
The sanctions continue to constrict the russian economy. Even the russian central bank is declaring that the russian economy is shrinking. The state bank lies of course, the russian economy is collapsing.
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@graemepeters5717 Here is some military science for a russian troll. In order for russia to win the war, russia needs roughly a 3:1 advantage in troop numbers. The Ukrainian Army is estimated to be ~700K, therefore, russia needs to attack with 2.1 million troops. russia has nowhere near those number of troopers, so russia can never conquer Ukraine.
Should russia miraculously conquer Ukraine, the occupation begins. Occupation is the hard part, conquering is the easy part. Conquering is the part russia seems incapable of achieving but that's the easy part.
Occupation. For a docile population, such as russian sheep, military science indicates 20 troops per 1000 civilian population. With the population of Ukraine at 44 million, russia would need to occupy with 880,000 troopers IF THE POPULATION WAS DOCILE.
For a restive population, with partisan activity, such as the people of Ukraine, the military science of occupation dictates 75 troopers per 1000 of population in occupation. For a Ukrainian population of 44 million, the REALITY is that russia would need to field 3,300,000 troops to occupy Ukraine. russia has nowhere close to those numbers. Further, it must be generational, so 3.3M troops for a generation or 20 years. russia simply doesn't have the stamina
russia cannot conquer Ukraine due to insufficient numbers and russia cannot occupy Ukraine due to insufficient numbers, consequently the war will grind on and on for russia. With the concomitant casualties inherent for the attacker.
russia has lost. The fighting may not be over, but russia has lost. Never had the numbers. Never will.
Got that Moskal?
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@graemepeters5717 the only thing you have displayed is your willful ignorance and utter disregard for the truth. The purest definition of a russian troll is a liar, that when confronted by their lies, use the "nuh-uh" defense, or to switch the topic. russia hasn't won a battle in 8 months. EIGHT MONTHS of russian ineptitude. Western weapons are pouring in to Ukraine, and your best response is "oops, ....". What kind of mindless twit are you? A russian one.
300,000 conscripted additional soldiers, and the best russia can claim is Soledar, pre war population 10,490. Inept.
Oops? It will be hysterically funny watching you explain the next russian failure. Where will the next 'good will' gesture be, er, flagrant military failure.
Solovyov is threatening Europe. russia cannot even handle Ukraine and russia wants to take on NATO. How ridiculous. russia cannot advance against Ukraine with the handmedowm kit provided. Soon, they will have much better kit, western tanks, western jets, ATACMS. Kerch Strait Bridge go boom.
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