Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. You forgot to mention obesity Peter. What percentage of the population don't fit the requirements because they can't fit through the door?
    481
  2. Great content, at least what I caught of it, but unbelievably low sound and only in one channel. Peter this is your face to the world. It doesn't matter how great your message is if no one can hear you! All the best.
    242
  3. It could have been much worse than the French. One word - Belgium.
    120
  4. While everyone is concerned about a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia causing an enormous disruption in the energy flow out of the area, what is often forgotten is that Iran itself uses a lot of energy. Iranian domestic production of oil and gas supplies the majority of its energy and it refines the vast majority of its own petrochemical products. This production and refining would allow it to be domestically virtually unaffected by the closure of the Straights of Hormuz. Conventional thinking would target Karg Island to stop Iran being able to export crude oil and hence cripple Iran economically. If however the USA (or possibly Israel) were to target Iranian refineries then Iran would be forced to import refined products, probably from Saudi Arabia, or face massive civil unrest, possible revolution and economic collapse. This would force Iran to keep the Straights of Hormuz open and improve its relationship with Saudi Arabia. It would also reduce the Iranian budget which would be a good thing. Of course Iran could rebuild its refining capacity, but that could be costly and they could always be destroyed again. Iran and its regime is IMHO much more vulnerable than it appears. Just a thought.
    91
  5. Yup, it's well past the time that Germany woke up. Sigh.
    87
  6. Ah, something that I know a bit about. 5:30 The British didn't allow the pound to be used in the colonies because it was backed by gold and if it was used then gold would flow out of the UK. This is why a lot of former British colonies (eg the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, about 20 countries in total) use Dollars. Dollars comes from Spanish Dollars, also known as Pieces of Eight, which were commonly available. Although it didn't matter as much back then as they were all gold and it was the weight and purity of the gold coins that was important. I suspect that the Spanish didn't care that their currency was being used everywhere because they had such a huge influx of gold from South America (but I'm not sure). All the best everyone.
    85
  7. I love the Dutch, I lived there as a child and speak some Dutch. It's a great country and great society. Zeihan's comment "they are brusk and abrupt" is however spot on. Sometimes they tell it how it is too much. I don't know why so many of them have this trait, but it does mean that it's quicker to get to the point. 🤣👍 All the best everyone.
    71
  8. Bulgaria overview next? 🤞 Thanks Peter this series is brilliant. 👍
    62
  9. How bad does it have to get for the US to fix it's politics? I don't mean change the Constitution, rather the parties need to fix themselves and more importantly the public need to demand excellent candidates. Really, where did all the adults go? Maybe the USA just needs a credible threat to wake up? China? I sure hope that this election is the low point. All the best from a politically much worse Scotland. 🤣 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    58
  10. I suspect that it they end up in Benghazi they will just sit there and rust until they can't leave.
    52
  11. This analysis is great Peter, however you say that the entire Ukrainian male population has been mobilised. That doesn't mean however that they are all on the front lines or even in the armed forces. Ukrainian adult males are now required to not leave the country, however unless a person has military experience they have not been called up. The Ukraine still has a vast number of, so far, untrained men which it can call upon. All the best. PS The audio is STILL terrible.
    47
  12. Very few Americans understand Europe, including the UK. They have never understood the world much (apart from the Communists who absolutely threatened them) as America is huge and virtually self sufficient in every. A huge generalisation, I know, but far more true than not. All the best. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    38
  13. The American populists/isolationists want to retreat from the world, while at the same time retain the ability to dictate to the world. Choose one or the other, not both. 🇬🇧
    37
  14. Well observed. 👍
    34
  15. Yea, France will be a better solution for Indian arms requirements. There's no overlap in their spheres of influence or resource requirements, whereas India is bound to clash with the USA every so often. Actually I see French arms exports increasing in many parts of the world because the French are only really interested in a limited part of the world. Their arms are top notch too. 👍 All the best.
    25
  16. I agree with your assessment completely. I hope that the Ukrainians have an experienced oil and gas engineering team to assist their special forces. There's plenty of open source information available on Russian refineries, storage depots, loading facilities, pumping and compressor stations and pipelines which could aid targeting. I believe that the reason Ukraine has not struck Russia much is political, but I suspect that this is about to change. Special forces attacks are probably the best route, rather than missile strikes. All the best. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    25
  17. If that was at all true then I am astonished. I suppose that's what a country gets when they don't elect to best for the job, but rather the most in vogue colour. 🤦‍♂️
    25
  18. Incredibly generous of you. Thank you Peter. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    24
  19. Even that won't work well as the clutter is still present if there are any waves. Marine drones, which intentionally have a very small radar radar signature or which could even be submersible for the terminal attack stage, are extremely difficult to detect and the target ships may only have seconds to react. This technology would be very difficult for any modern navy to counter.
    24
  20. I doubt it unfortunately. Argentina was amazing until Peronism - that's a monumentally difficult addiction to combat.
    21
  21. Please note that over the years it has become obvious that Peter really, really, really dislikes the UK. 🤦 I wonder who pissed him off sooooo much - my guess, an ex. 🤣
    19
  22. I know what you mean. I really struggle with some of his key concepts, like that the US Navy is going home, which may eventually come to pass, but for a start I don't think that the US President is ready to relinquish that level of power just yet. Until the invasion of Ukraine, Europe has not had a significant external threat since the end of the First Cold War and so far although the rhetoric is positive Europe is not showing great unity. The entire continent has still not ramped up military production significantly; Germany's military is still a joke; France is ominously quiet; and the only significant contributor outside of countries very close to Russia has been the UK. But consider the EU without German cash. No cash = no voice. What does the EU look like without Germany? Who are the EU's net financial contributors then? France, the Netherlands and Scandinavia? Does the EU in its current state benefit them? For that matter will the financial beneficiary states want the EU when they won't get money anymore? Also what does a banking stress test look like in the EU without German cash to bail it out? I know that it's really hard to imagine life in Europe without the EU in its current form, but gigantic changes are coming whether we like it or not. I think that the way that the UK left the EU was extremely badly managed to say the least, but it may work out well for Britain. I think that this will only happen if the politicians in London get their act together, which is a huge task. All the best.
    18
  23. Wrong Peter, pagers never transmit. They're only receivers.
    17
  24.  @fffwe3876  Yes, he sounds very confident about everything, even about things which he has no idea about. This is required for his job, but it's likely to be his personality. There's a very fine line between being confident and overconfident. If he doesn't keep this trait in check then it could well be his downfall. All the best.
    17
  25. Despite all the hype, I'm pretty sure that they were heading to somewhere near Vladivostok and that it sank because of good old Russian incompetence.
    17
  26. 😂
    17
  27. They lost. 😐
    17
  28. Recently I have actually been wondering if our entire taxation system is anti- children. I am starting to suspect that income tax and sales tax are the key problems. I also agree with the space argument for having children. Apartments are not suitable for raising children, as is shown in the data.
    17
  29. Interesting. Thanks. No one could accuse Israel of not having complex politics and society.
    17
  30.  @Phookutube  "No one ever expects the Spanish inquisition!" 🤣 Yea, you're right. I was recently speaking with a Bulgarian who grew up under the Communists - essentially under Russian control. Most Bulgarians really can't stand Russia, but if forced to choose between living under the Russians or the Turkish control they would go choose Russia any day. Thank goodness for the EU and NATO. I really hope these institutions last. All the best from bonnie Scotland. By the way if you are curious, the vast majority of Scots get on well with the English, it's just that those who don't have loud mouths. 🤐
    16
  31. Interesting if a strong Germany invokes Article 5 regarding the sub sea cable attacks. The Baltic Sea could well be shut down. Interesting times. 🇬🇧🇺🇦
    16
  32. ​ @chrisnamaste3572 We can't fix the world to stop immigration into the EU and the sooner that Europe recognised that reality the better. Hard borders and navies are very, very easy to implement once the political will is found. If there is famine worldwide because of the Ukraine war then it will hit Africa particularly hard and refugees will flood in, how will that increase the food supply is a mystery. Something has to change and change quick.
    15
  33. If the US leave, and it's looking increasingly likely that that is the case, then resources in the Mediterranean are up for grabs. This means that those with military might will rule. In a word Turkey. However they will not be able to exploit it. Hence they will have to get a partner with a NATIONAL oil company like Total or ENI, because an independent company would leave at the first sight of trouble. It would also have to be tolerated by the other power in the Mediterranean, France (with assistance from Italy). This may mean that the Eastern Mediterranean oil and gas assets never get exploited. It will make sense for France to try to impoverish Turkey as much as possible as they are regional rivals.
    15
  34. If they're smelting with coke then their production should not be affected. If they use electricity then Peter is correct.
    15
  35.  @lilacer6841  Russian bot. 🇷🇺🤡
    14
  36. I like how Operator Starsky refers to "The Alcoholic Medvedev." 🤣🤡 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    14
  37. Yes, you absolutely can leave, however I suspect that you will to an extent be back because isolationism leads to a lack of control and America really, really likes being in control. Abba Eban March 1967 in Japan, “Men and nations behave wisely when they have exhausted all other resources.” Erroneously credited to Winston Churchill. All the best. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    14
  38. They didn't really device Russia. Russia had enough troops to hold territory, but high losses eventually meant that in order to reinforce one place they would have to withdraw troops from another part of the front. Ukraine stated an offensive West of the Dnieper which forced Russia to reinforce or evacuate it. They chose to reinforce and Ukraine hit the bridges and ferry's trapping maybe 20k troops. Great Ukrainian intel probably with the help of the US and occupied Ukrainians told them what part of the line was weakest. This was helped by the UA being inactive around Kharkiv. It was a very good strategy against Russia as they've made huge gains in the north AND Russian troops are still trapped down south (and will not survive the winter without food). All the best.
    13
  39. But the Greenies are scared of nuclear. 😫
    13
  40. ​ @quinkana1 The Independence questions has absolutely nothing to do with the monarchy. These are two totally separate issues.
    13
  41. Incredible. A video that not only has Peter giving us good news, but he's giving us extremely good news! 🤣👍 Happy days. I can't wait for the Stalin-esque retributions to begin. I wonder if Putin will sail barges down the Don showing the executed like Peter the Great did. 😂🤞 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    13
  42. They bring "challenges".
    12
  43. I really hope that you're correct. 🤞
    12
  44. Indeed. I have heard of a Ukrainian torpedo type drone that is being developed with a pretty big payload, 1000km range, but only a slow speed. I suspect that it's target will be a certain famous bridge, though Russian tankers better watch out too. 🌻💀🌻 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
    12
  45. ​ @lukaszmalinowski8675 But if this turns into a frozen conflict for a decade or more, then when will Ukrainians start worrying about the future? Demographics is simply too easy to postpone. People just aren't wired up to think on a multi decade timescale. It wasn't so much of an issue before birth control. Now would be parents want to wait until everything ideal before considering starting a family, often when the woman is fast approaching not being able to have children. It's a VERY difficult problem. All the best.
    11
  46. ​ @roejogan9322  Not true. Indian Hindus will care and they are the ones who count.
    11
  47. Coupled with the EU insisting on imposing EU minimum taxation rates for all British Overseas Territories. The EU's mission creep is relentless and utterly unacceptable.
    11
  48. ​ @benhardsatrio8222  But where would those oil and refined imports into Russia be coming from and what ports are available for Russia to use? Would Russia import them into Vladivostok? No, the distance to European Russia is too far and the only producers of any significance are Western. The Trans Siberian Railway has also been running at capacity for a long time now and increasing traffic to transport oil is not possible. Would Russia import them into Murmansk? No, it's too far from the source of the oil and lacks the infrastructure to transport the oil south. Would Russia import them into the Baltic? Not for long because Europe could shut this route down. That just leaves the Black Sea and as these products are essential for the war they are valid and legal targets for Ukraine. Tankers would also have to come through the Mediterranean which is controlled by NATO. My guess is that tankers would burn and then stop.🔥 That just leaves pipelines through the Caucuses and I'm not sure about them, but it wouldn't be enough to fuel a war. Imports through Belarus will also need to be restricted. Russia is checkmated if Ukraine keeps targeting refineries and then tankers, but NATO needs to grow a pair and get tough. This would essentially be a blockade of Russia though which has consequences. All the best.
    11
  49. "So Donald, if you could vote who would you vote for?" 🤣
    10
  50. ​ @t.r.2283 I was visiting my father in hospital in the UK. He's 86 and an occupational therapist asked him what advice he would give to younger people. He didn't reply, so I said "have children" and she nearly had a fit! "Why would I ever want to do that?" She was probably in he mid thirties. I resisted the temptation to tell her that she won't get looked after by the state in old age as she plans. People are unbelievably out of touch with reality. All the best. 👍
    10