Comments by "Tiago D\x27Agostini" (@tiagodagostini) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

  1. I find funny that this is the FIRST ever plane crash where no one even raise a chance of mechanical failure :P
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  2. What I wonder is how much deception is in any of the public statements of both side, be Zelensky acceptance to stay and fight or Wargner complains about ammo. Both things realistically woudl be handled internally and there is no reason for public statement.
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  3. Impressive as how the last 7 days things changes so drastically after such a long stagnant period
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  4. Their plan is overload Russian logistics that cannot handle 200k prisioners! It is a genious plan!
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  5. Well at least Ukraine is not wasting lives on holding irrelevant spots anymore.
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  6.  @rainyvideos3684  Updated to modern times "when you are weak, complain in twitter"
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  7. At the start of the war I saw a historian say somethign that now makes sense. Russia never lost a war that they started very badly.
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  8. Where is the next STRONGHOLD of ukranian prepared defenses?
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  9. They will nto pull the plug so soon, USA is slow to do that type of stuff.
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  10. This war is much slower than WW2 although. No side can get so huge steps. Also I think Russia will limit itself to the dinpro river
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  11.  @command_unit7792  It is a reasonable way to give experience to the new recruits without risking them before they are really ready. It is kind of smart on their part.
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  12. Omg the updated are more and more frequent.. is the situation changing that fast?
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  13.  @tolis7411 No on the contrary, I jsut know much more of economy than the average delusional people in the internet. Russia has a very low total production. How much land you have is nearly irrelevant if you cannot make something of it. Canada is almost as big as Russia but has an even lower population so it is even further away from beign a superpower. China and USA are the ONLY superpowers because they can leverage their resources. CHina and USA if they had to face the current situation that Russia has they could tripple or more their production. A superpower must be able to heavily influence geopolitics in ALL CONTINENTS, both economically and military. That is the definition of a superpower. Russia is a LOCAL power. It has near zero presence in Oceania and Americas right now and It cannot do much economic leverage. Even Brazil is more powerful economically than Russia as of today.
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  14. HE gets more subscribers because of that. People prefer to listen to people that say what they want to listen. That happens in politics, war reports, debates about AI, debates about economy.. everything.
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  15.  @Donqixote11  Because they were pushing into an auto retreating front. Not that ukranians could not have pushed but it was fast because Russians chose to not fight that moment. Russians on my view were shortenign the front and creating a secure line (behind the main river) that their new recruits coudl hold and then reorganize all their experienced divisions once again. Now the situation is reversed because with the short valid front (the south front across the end of the river is not a true front since the bridges are all out) the Uckraine number advantage is not worth that much. Russians did huge istakes at the start of the war but now that they are not underestimating Ukraine's army, they became once again effective.
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  16.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  Not so simply. Brazilains love to hate their own army . Brazil still have half a Million active troops and 1.9 Million reservists that passed trough trianing in last 5 years. And enough infantry equipment for all. Brazil will not intervene because Lula SUPPORTS maduro, but we have the infantry and the artillery to do it. VEnezuela army is critically bad as well on something more important than weapons, .. FOOD. It is public that they have difficulty feeding their troops, so they send recruits in training back home before lunch time every day to save on food.
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  17. This is starting to move at speed of a normal war... what changed?
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  18.  @TrevorCrook-c1s  From where in hell you get those absurd fake figures? To say that America produces nothing compared to Russia is basically flat earth speech . Russia PEAK steel production, just before war started 6.8 Million tons per year. USA Current steel production (and not in a war economy ) 88 Million tons. America outproduces Russia in almost 9:1 ratio. On grains Russia record production is 153.8 million tonnes per year while USA is 360 million tons per year this year. When you go into more complex production the USA advantage is even larger.
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  19. As rule of thumb.. losses are usually half of what the other side says they are. Still 21K is not a low number
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  20. Damn.. that was a summary.
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  21. German experience with Russia is, "if we have time to retrieve our pants after shitting in time to retreat, it is a victory"
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  22. No it is not. It lacks economic power, population and productivity. RUssia GDP is simply too low, and GDP measures your capacity to leverage your resources. Also their population is too small to use their resources effectively. Conquering ukraine is one of the things they need since they expect to agregate a large batch of population.
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  23. The number of residents is not what matter. If Ukraine threw everything they had to hodl it and Russia takes it (and it is taking) it means they probably cannot stop Russia anywhere unless local terrain is VERY favorable for them. That causes morale damage and that is why backmut is important, because whoever loses will take serious morale dent.
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  24.  @mike7671  At the initial moment when they had massive advantage maybe, but now I think they want to lick their wounds. They might push a bit forther jsut to have margint o "return territories" to pretend they were magnanimous.
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  25. Een on the new accelerated war pace, there is no end in sight. Both sides would need to capture huge amount of land to get to a total victory.
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  26. Up to last year Brazil was very close to Israel, but that reversed completely this year.
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  27. It is a very high probability that they want to inflict a bloody retreat. It is cheaper for the Russians than a full encirclement like in Mariopol.
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  28. It makes harder. If a missile flies flat at moderate height it can be intercepted by Air defenses positioned in all its path. A ballistic approach result in the missile only goign low very close to the target. That means only an air defense exactly at its target can intercept it. That means that statistically they have many more chances to intercept a cruise missile than a ballistic missile like a Khinzal.
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  29. Because Odessa is large and they cannot have good logistics doing so. It would risk too much of their forces. After moskva was sunk they also lost most of their true naval power in the black sea.
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  30. But knowing when to retreat is very important. I know there is a political element for Ukraine leaders as well on not giving ground, but Bakmut is basically encircled and is wasting their men.
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  31.  @kartikeyatiwari2502 One could have said one of the most experienced armies in modern warfare , and that would be true as they had to face this Drone revolution directly and probably learned a lot by it, but people that consider them more powerful than US army really must be gamers because they fail to realize the most important thing in an army is A) logistics b) Logistics c)An absurd supply of money to fund it) .
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  32.  Onyen Bew  Germany DO NOT HAVE 1 thousand Tanks. Get real.
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  33.  @DefensePoliticsAsia In fact no. I work with this type of AI. When the image is very very uncommon it matches very little natural patterns it is easy to get AI generated. A burned baby is something I am SURE the Adversary network was never trained with. So As a specialist I can say, you CANNOT trust an adversary network to make such classification. Be very careful with you statement. I know you have good intention but you do not understand the math concepts required to say somethign with the strength of statement you said. No You CANNOT say that is or is NOT AI generated using an adversarial network. These networks are trained in tandem with a generative network and they are fed by a trueth knowing part if the image they were fed with was or was not generated by the generative network (After they have tried to guess) . They are fed with a mix of things from the generative Ai and a mix of real life images. THere is a natural bias that exists that whenever the network is fed with a something very weird, to guess it was AI is a statistically likely option that is true. The result is that these networks are only good at detecting AI works in fields where the images overlap in patterns and content with things they were fed upon their training. Again, NONE of these networks were fed with burned baby images.
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  34. Traditional media is simply worthless.
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  35. An accident is NOT an attack all NATO Knows that. NATO is not STUPID to accept such stupid argument that a drone that clearly missied target is an ATTACK, specially if it killed no one.
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  36. Seems this has been a very busy day for you,
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  37. Let me explain other things. This judge is in some form "controling" the supreme court for over 3 years. No one dares to speak against him. Some suspect he has dirties against other court members. He do judges his own cases. He accuse people of wanting to harm him and judged those very same people.. that is very weird There is NO LAW that support the fines for X for not blocking a member. In fact our constitution in article 220 paragraph second says explicitly that no censorship is allowed and No law can be created to promote it.
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  38. Their advantage is, Russia cannto use their massive artillery advantage into their OWN towns. So that is makign Russians forego their largest asset.
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  39.  @Jamespwickstromw  Not only that. Allies have Infantry superiority, Tank numeric superiority ( like 5 to 1), artillery superiority and LOGISTICS superiority. They had all possible tick boxes marked. AND, at same time the GErmans had their butts extremely hot with an equlaly impressive Soviet army that had absurd 13:1 tank superiority. IT was the perfect unstopable force.
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  40. Btw adding context ... That same Judge already Blocked Telegram in Brazil because telegram did not accept to bow down to his censorship demands.
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  41. No because no treaty consider an invasion when the other part invaded first.
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  42. Every single external estimate of losses of either side is always A) clueless B) an explicit lie. Not even the armies themselves have exact numbers, and people expect some random people can have this data? The intelligence agencies worldwide that have it keep it SECRET! Jsut check always both sides claim other side is losing 20 times more people than they are losing. That does NOT EXIST IN WAR!
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  43. WW1 had just at that period introduced the first tanks. It became obvious that just sittign would not work anymore because soon every country would be fielding them. So they started to go for the all or nothing.
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  44. Naaa money released take several weeks to reach battlefield.
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  45. I wonder if those things have a sound box playing terminator movie theme.
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  46. This bodes very bad for Ukraine. Why? If Zelenski cannot sit in a table and negotiate for such a SIMPLE matter, what is his chance of ever negotiating a peace deal? Zero! HE is a very bad negotiator, he fails to understand that negitiation implies you are not going to get ALL you want. Yes he is under extreme pressure, but I bet he has some people around him that can do it.
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  47. Lula is extremely in favor of Maduro, but he is an egomaniac and if he sees this as an opportunity for his name to be remembered as someoen taht avoided a war he will go for it.
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  48. I do not get what Ukraine is doing.. they held at all costs throwing the kitchen sink even for places irrelevant a few months ago, but they are now leaving important crossroads completely uncontested.
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  49.  @RetreatHell518  In fact he could not. They could have ensured peace 1 year before the war, but 1 month was too late.
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  50.  @jugganaut33  No need to be that much, if they can reach soem roads and cut some supply lines it would be enough damage to make continuation of Ukrainian offensive null and void..
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