Comments by "LRRPFco52" (@LRRPFco52) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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@bernardvc5820 This is my take on it too, having been a student of Russian military history for quite some time, and having lived there to gain an understanding of how they think, what their culture is like, what makes them function. Like anyone else, I would love for there to be a total ceasefire and Russian forces completely return to Russia, leave Ukraine. I also would love for Marilyn Monroe to come back to life and be my girlfriend, minus the drama and being used as a rag doll by the Kennedy Brothers and mafia bosses. I really think there’s going to be a Russian offensive this winter with the recent mobilization effort, and I think those soldiers are going to perform well enough to at least soak up as much Ukrainian combat power as possible as basically human bullet, artillery shell, ATGM, and drone-delivered munitions dummies so the next campaign can push through next year.
I think we’re looking at a 3-year overall initial series of campaigns going back-and-forth. Russia will work hard to deter foreign military sales/transfers into Ukraine with their network of moles and compromised politicians within NATO and the US, but that will still be hard to pull-off. They almost had it with Biden offering a ride for Zelensky and his family from the outset of the war, remember?
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@michaelmaroney1660 It's interesting because during the Czarist times, they had 25yr-life military service commitments, professional soldiers who learned their jobs and were selected for the type of unit they would serve in based on experience with horses, their physique, literacy, and local village elders input.
They have incrementally reduced the conscription years of service from then into the Soviet times, then even more cuts in the Russian Federation to where these guys are institutionally incompetent from Generals down to conscripts.
Even their low density, high skill set career fields are filled with incompetents.
Their SAM battery operators shot down a civilian airliner, then discussed it frantically on an open cellular network while driving out of Ukraine as fast as they could.
Their fighter pilots are being shot down for sport while talking on open, non-secure, single channel freqs, no use of brevity codes, rambling on without any sense of urgency, even as their flaming wreckage powers down and they should have ejected already.
They're a shell of what they used to be, bumbling around like a sick drunk, but dangerous enough to still destroy, maim, and murder.
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@michaelmaroney1660 I've listened to their radio comms when they have violated Finnish airspace. Finns published it openly years ago. Same exact thing, Su-27SM pilots ranting on and on over the radio, sounding inebriated, "da da da...", non-secure, open text, no brevity codes.
I saw better radios and comms discipline in line Infantry units in the early 1990s in the US. US and NATO fighter pilots have excellent equipment, freq-hopping, encrypted radios, brevity, and data links with graphics overlays on JTIDS displays.
They have lost a lot of Su-30s (11), Su-25s (22), and Su-34s (16-17). Su-30s and Su-34s are some of their most advanced, modern fighters.
They also had 1 Su-35 shot down, as well as some Su-24s shot down/destroyed on the ground, and now lost a MiG-31.
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There’s a STARTFOR video on the geography of the United States that is a must watch to understand US geography. I’ve traveled across the US and lived in 8 States in Southwest, New England, Southeast, PNW, DC/Virginia, CO, and UT and never had it explained to me that way. I watched that and asked, “Why hasn’t anyone told me this before?” I attended multiple schools, deployed all over as a military brat and active duty soldier, lived all over abroad, did strategic analyses of terrain and combat systems in their regional deployment postures, constantly measuring distances, power centers, bases, weapons reach, logistic routes, population centers, water bodies, and still never saw the big picture the way George Friedman and Peter Zeihan laid it all out.
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