Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Anders Puck Nielsen"
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"I think that Putin was probably even more surprised than the rest of the world when he realized that he (and Russia) is at war with the Ukraine."
I think he is as surprised as Hitler was in 1939 when he invaded Poland and didn't expect that other countries would suddenly jump into the war and start helping the country that he just invaded. Hitler had invaded the Rhineland, Austria, Sudetenland, and Czechia without any military resistence from the west. And likewise was west doing nothing when Putin started wars in Chechenya, Georgia, Dagestan, and Crimea.. so he thought that invading Ukraine would be easy.
Ukraine would be demoralized with the lack of western support and quickly give up, even if it would fight bravely the first few days Putin thought. And regardless would the west be able to do too little too late to save Ukraine. And Germany would remain passive as Russia have a knife pressed against its throat with the gas weapon which could kill the German economy.
So Putin did certainly not expect that taking Ukraine would be this hard. The war has become a nightmare for him.
And when it comes to Russian propaganda do I think many Russians have fallen victim for it. Putin himself is on one hand considering the west as weak, decadent, lazy, materialistic, dumb, and overly interested in comfort so beating them in a war would be easy for the more practical minded Russians that are used to hardships.
But then do Putin fall victim to doublethink. One time do he feel contempt for the west as see it as weak. And in the next moment he feels great fear from it. He is paranoid and thinks that the USA is out after him. He constantly fears being poisoned. He sits at long tables because he is afraid of sitting close to someone who might be sick and have Covid or some other disease. He is a coward hiding in his bunker the entire war. He was even so afraid of an western air raid that he did not allow any military planes to fly on his victory day parade on May 9th, as he wanted his military planes to be ready to protect the skies over Moscow from a sudden attack instead. Things are getting silly 🙄
And what George Orwell called "doublethink" is really what is typical of Putins Russia. And of Russian propaganda in particular.
It is filled with constant contradictions towards its own talking points. First they say there is no war in Ukraine, and in the next moment they accuse the west of a proxy war. First they always say they are winning in Ukraine, and in the next moment they mobilize the reserves.
The laugh at USA and say its military is worthless and just leave equipment behind and flee from Afghanistan and say that USA and the west have the most worthless military in the world. And in the next moment they say that Russia is only losing in Ukraine because it is not just fighting Ukraine, but they are also fighting Nato 🙄
Russia is in that regard the first post-modern state in history. It doesn't care about truth. It holds no values.
In the propaganda does Russia try to appeal to everyone and not just a few. To the leftist they say that they are the inheritors of the Soviet heritage and that they are a counterpart to USAs imperialism and capitalism. To the rightwingers do they say that Russia is a bastion against progressivism and a defender of christian family values.
To the westerners they pretend to be an European modern country and an attractive large market. While to the Africans they say that they are the fighter against the west and their imperialism and the defender of the 3rd world.
The Russians are prepared to lie about anything. They lie if they think if that it is going to suit them.
And telling the truth is of course illegal in Russia. Calling the conflict in Ukraine for a war will get you into jail. Criticising the military will also give you severe sentences. Indeed, I have even heard that such a small thing as saying that the T-34 tank
had many serious construction flaws is a criminal offence in Russia.
And with such a lack of diversity of opinions and lack of critical discussions - then of course you do get a stupid ignorant population. And maybe one can say that Putin is one such idiot that that the Soviet education system have produced.
He is either completly ignorant of Ukraines history as an independent country. Or he is lying.
Or he is both lying and being ignorant.
And with such a fool in power, it is perhaps not a surprise that Russia makes bad decisions. And the country have never dealt with its dark Stalinist past the same way as the Germans have dealt with their Hitler
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Probably. Tanks from the cold war had most of their armor put at the front and a little to the sides while the rest of the tank was weakly defended to save weight - and that made sense when the biggest threat to tanks was other tanks that were most likely to shot at them fron the front or sides. But today this is not the best choice. Now would it be best to have the thick armor in the front and on the top of the tank, as the biggest threat from enemy fire still comes from the front, but now are the threat from flying drones a much more dangerous threat then enemy fire from the sides.
And no in the world tank is prepared for this new threat from drones. Not even Leopard2A7, M1A3 Ambrams, Merkava 4 which are the worlds best tanks.
The same goes for warships. The torpedo and anti-ship missiles hunted Battleships into extinction like humans did to the mammuths. And for the last 60 years have warships seen missiles as their biggest threat. And counter-measures have been developed against them. Patriot missiles can now shot down other missiles. And Phalanx CIWS can spray defensive fire to protect a group of ships against incoming missiles.
However drone boats are a new type of threat against ships. They are not easy to detect, and not all ships can lower their guns to protect against a wolfpack of drones coming their way. The drones are cheap, they carry large payloads, they are hard to see becuase planet earth is round and prevents radars at surface levels from seeing far. And even if they could see far would it be hard to see a drone boat with a low siluette that is hiding much of its body underneath the surface. The electric engine for the small boat is very silent and hard to detect in an ocean filled with noise - especially at longer distances. So neither sonar or radar will therefore be easy to detect. Seeing the heat from the boat will also be difficult as it is such a small target and will therefore produce very little heat, and the little it produce will be hidden under water and you will not see the warm heat from the engine since it is only watchable from the rear, and the ship is driving towards you and you can only see the front instead.
The low siluette on the drone makes it also hard to see in the evening, and impossible to see in a dark night.
And even if you use massive search lights and fire lots of cannons with tracer rounds would it still not be easy to take out a drone boat as water effectivly curtails the power from machine gun rounds, and the extremely well sloped armor on those low siluette boats will bounce off most low calibre fire. And probably especially so when the boat is partly under water.
And even if defenders would be lucky and one or two boats would be destroyed, would there still be other boats around there that could cause massive damage if they just score one hit.
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A large number of russian units within FSB's territorial defense, Spetsnaz, the presidents own national guard Rosgvardia and the regular army commited mutiny during the weekend and joined Prigozhins coup. This includes some of Russias best remaining military units, and the consequences of that should not be estimated. The source of the list Denis Zelenko:
Military unit 11659: Command of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (RosGvardia),
411th Detachment of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade
108th Bataysk GRU Spetsnaz Detachment
387th Object “C” of the 12th Main Defence Ministry Directorate (nuclear), Voronezh-45.
FSB Border guards at Bugaevka
FSB Federal Border Service of the regional command center for Voronezh region
FSB Border Service at Chertkovo
Unit 7437: RosGvardia Spetsnaz motorized regiment.
Unit 3677: RosGvardia Separate Battalion
Unit 63453: Separate Tank Brigade in Boguchar
HQ from the 22nd SPF (SF) brigade
The last unit mentioned are fighting togheter with the 45th brigade on the Ukrainian front against the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and it is considered as Russias best military unit.
When those units will get purged by Putin it could become a bloody affair, aside from Russia loses some of its best remaining special units. And if those units take up arms to not get slaughtered like pigs - then there will be another civil war. Worth noticing on this list is that one of those units is a nuclear weapons unit.
Putin gave a problem, far larger than just Prigozhins trip over the rainbowbridge to the big potato field in Belarussia. No amnesty has been declared for all the units which have switched side, but only for the troops in the Wagner group. And a large number of special units and entire regiments of the presidents national guard have switched their loyalty, and they will likely not bend down to Putins will
- unless he crush those who have joined the rebellion.
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