Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

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  10. "I think that Putin was probably even more surprised than the rest of the world when he realized that he (and Russia) is at war with the Ukraine." I think he is as surprised as Hitler was in 1939 when he invaded Poland and didn't expect that other countries would suddenly jump into the war and start helping the country that he just invaded. Hitler had invaded the Rhineland, Austria, Sudetenland, and Czechia without any military resistence from the west. And likewise was west doing nothing when Putin started wars in Chechenya, Georgia, Dagestan, and Crimea.. so he thought that invading Ukraine would be easy. Ukraine would be demoralized with the lack of western support and quickly give up, even if it would fight bravely the first few days Putin thought. And regardless would the west be able to do too little too late to save Ukraine. And Germany would remain passive as Russia have a knife pressed against its throat with the gas weapon which could kill the German economy. So Putin did certainly not expect that taking Ukraine would be this hard. The war has become a nightmare for him. And when it comes to Russian propaganda do I think many Russians have fallen victim for it. Putin himself is on one hand considering the west as weak, decadent, lazy, materialistic, dumb, and overly interested in comfort so beating them in a war would be easy for the more practical minded Russians that are used to hardships. But then do Putin fall victim to doublethink. One time do he feel contempt for the west as see it as weak. And in the next moment he feels great fear from it. He is paranoid and thinks that the USA is out after him. He constantly fears being poisoned. He sits at long tables because he is afraid of sitting close to someone who might be sick and have Covid or some other disease. He is a coward hiding in his bunker the entire war. He was even so afraid of an western air raid that he did not allow any military planes to fly on his victory day parade on May 9th, as he wanted his military planes to be ready to protect the skies over Moscow from a sudden attack instead. Things are getting silly 🙄 And what George Orwell called "doublethink" is really what is typical of Putins Russia. And of Russian propaganda in particular. It is filled with constant contradictions towards its own talking points. First they say there is no war in Ukraine, and in the next moment they accuse the west of a proxy war. First they always say they are winning in Ukraine, and in the next moment they mobilize the reserves. The laugh at USA and say its military is worthless and just leave equipment behind and flee from Afghanistan and say that USA and the west have the most worthless military in the world. And in the next moment they say that Russia is only losing in Ukraine because it is not just fighting Ukraine, but they are also fighting Nato 🙄 Russia is in that regard the first post-modern state in history. It doesn't care about truth. It holds no values. In the propaganda does Russia try to appeal to everyone and not just a few. To the leftist they say that they are the inheritors of the Soviet heritage and that they are a counterpart to USAs imperialism and capitalism. To the rightwingers do they say that Russia is a bastion against progressivism and a defender of christian family values. To the westerners they pretend to be an European modern country and an attractive large market. While to the Africans they say that they are the fighter against the west and their imperialism and the defender of the 3rd world. The Russians are prepared to lie about anything. They lie if they think if that it is going to suit them. And telling the truth is of course illegal in Russia. Calling the conflict in Ukraine for a war will get you into jail. Criticising the military will also give you severe sentences. Indeed, I have even heard that such a small thing as saying that the T-34 tank had many serious construction flaws is a criminal offence in Russia. And with such a lack of diversity of opinions and lack of critical discussions - then of course you do get a stupid ignorant population. And maybe one can say that Putin is one such idiot that that the Soviet education system have produced. He is either completly ignorant of Ukraines history as an independent country. Or he is lying. Or he is both lying and being ignorant. And with such a fool in power, it is perhaps not a surprise that Russia makes bad decisions. And the country have never dealt with its dark Stalinist past the same way as the Germans have dealt with their Hitler
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  25. If i remember things correcly had Russia suffered about 200.000 casualties by September if one concludes that there was 2 wounded on every man killed, and if one suppose that the Ukrainian numbers were true. That certainly could explain Putins desperatation to quickly twist and turn the Russian legal system so that he could mobilize the Russian people for this war to quickly refill his manpower losses. Russia had started this war with an invasion army of say 240.000 men strong. And if you lose 200.000 men out of it then of course there was almost nothing left of it by the last autumn. Putins "quick fixes" of using more mercenaries, pushing prisoners into military service, and increased measures to try to get Chechens and Syrians recruited never came close to fill Russias manpower gaps. Shoigu said that Russia had lost 6000 men back then. And if that was true, then would no mobilization have been needed as Russia would still have had over 200.000 men still available to fight in Ukraine. But so big was Russian bullsh*t lies that Putin was forced to make a mass mobilization to get enough manpower to win this war - and only world war 1 and world war 2 had Russia done a mass mobilization before, so this was an extraordinary decision. And it would be very odd and strange if Russia would do such a big mobilization if their losses were not massive - which proves that Shoigu and Putin lied when they said losses were low and that the Special military operation was going according to plan. Creating a mass mobilization is not something one do just for fun. It is enormously disruptive to the Russian economy. And it is an unpopular decision to grab young men from their homes and send them to a far away war zone and disrupt their lives. So I bet that Putin would have avoided it if he had seen any other option. But with the high losses were there no other options left.
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  29. Russia is spending a third of its state income on this war. Which is not much. I don't know how large the Russian state is, but say its 50% of the countrys GDP. And then means that about 1/6 of the country's GDP goes into fighting this war. And I don't think that is much... I mean some of the great powers spent 80% of their GDP fighting in World War 2. So if Russia wanted to, it could do much more to mobilize its resources for this war. The limiting factor is rather how much sacrifices the Russian people are willing to go through to conquer some grey ruins that two years ago were small Ukrainian towns. Obviously do people have a very strange view on logic and seems to think that this war is still much very worthwhile despite losing 180.000 men and getting another 360.000 or so coming home with wounds from bullets and shrapnel plus mental scars. For me as a western person I just feel staggered by the gigantic russian stupidity. However what I think is irrelevant. I think it would be a mistake to project my own thoughts and feelings on my Russian opponents. Their mindset is so clearly different from my own. Anyone who havn't got a mental capacity of a child should realize that all talks about Ukraine as ruled by neonazis and biolabs are just nonsense. And everyone with half a braincell would realize that enormous amounts of contradictions in Kremlins propaganda. But obviously are there lots of stupid people in the east that has fallen for this crap. A rational mind would think that no one would still want this war. Not Ukraine. Not the west. Not even Russia. Indeed not even Putin would want this war, but he cannot end it without losing power and perhaps also his own life... But still is this stupid war going on. And the russian people are fine with it as long as it does not harm themselves. They are okay with genocide and wars of aggression. And threatening other countries and half the world that you would nuke them is just a normal thing one do each sunday in their mind 🙄 So this war could go on for years before the russian people are forced to stopped at being so lazy in their thinking. It seems like they are only able to learn things the hard way. Well so be it.
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  37. Probably. Tanks from the cold war had most of their armor put at the front and a little to the sides while the rest of the tank was weakly defended to save weight - and that made sense when the biggest threat to tanks was other tanks that were most likely to shot at them fron the front or sides. But today this is not the best choice. Now would it be best to have the thick armor in the front and on the top of the tank, as the biggest threat from enemy fire still comes from the front, but now are the threat from flying drones a much more dangerous threat then enemy fire from the sides. And no in the world tank is prepared for this new threat from drones. Not even Leopard2A7, M1A3 Ambrams, Merkava 4 which are the worlds best tanks. The same goes for warships. The torpedo and anti-ship missiles hunted Battleships into extinction like humans did to the mammuths. And for the last 60 years have warships seen missiles as their biggest threat. And counter-measures have been developed against them. Patriot missiles can now shot down other missiles. And Phalanx CIWS can spray defensive fire to protect a group of ships against incoming missiles. However drone boats are a new type of threat against ships. They are not easy to detect, and not all ships can lower their guns to protect against a wolfpack of drones coming their way. The drones are cheap, they carry large payloads, they are hard to see becuase planet earth is round and prevents radars at surface levels from seeing far. And even if they could see far would it be hard to see a drone boat with a low siluette that is hiding much of its body underneath the surface. The electric engine for the small boat is very silent and hard to detect in an ocean filled with noise - especially at longer distances. So neither sonar or radar will therefore be easy to detect. Seeing the heat from the boat will also be difficult as it is such a small target and will therefore produce very little heat, and the little it produce will be hidden under water and you will not see the warm heat from the engine since it is only watchable from the rear, and the ship is driving towards you and you can only see the front instead. The low siluette on the drone makes it also hard to see in the evening, and impossible to see in a dark night. And even if you use massive search lights and fire lots of cannons with tracer rounds would it still not be easy to take out a drone boat as water effectivly curtails the power from machine gun rounds, and the extremely well sloped armor on those low siluette boats will bounce off most low calibre fire. And probably especially so when the boat is partly under water. And even if defenders would be lucky and one or two boats would be destroyed, would there still be other boats around there that could cause massive damage if they just score one hit.
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  40. Putin might still wanna continue the war just to stay in power, and meanwhile do he hope that the west somehow lose interest in this war and force Ukraine to make peace on Russian terms. The ultranationalists wants Russia to win this war. But Russia can only win with weapons they don't have and trained troops they don't have and ammunition supplies they do not possess. Russias best tanks has been destroyed, and same goes with much of their SPGs, APCs, and artillery pieces. Their professional army have to a large degree been destroyed. And their 152mm artillery shells are consumed at a higher rate than they are being produced. So what would Russia gain from a next wave of mobilization? -Probably not much. I mean the last wave of mobilization gave us poorly trained and badly motivated civilians that only got a half-assed military kit consisting of a rusty AK47 or a WW2 rifle, and the men had to buy their own sleeping bags and tampoons to stop bleeding from bullet wounds. 😂 They wear WW2 steel helmets instead of kevlar helmets, and they lacks both night vision and bullet proof vests. And their marching boots are so bad that russian soldiers prefer to steal Ukrainian military boots, It is also common that they have to use their own sneakers instead of the military boots... which might not actually be a bad idea if you fight in Afghanistan and do not wanna make lots of noise for every step on the ground that you take... but I wonder how fun they are to have in cold, muddy Ukraine when you are walking in city rubble with broken glass and rusty iron nails on the ground. And the Russian Gorka and digiflora uniforms have I heard that they are pretty uncomfy to wear as you cannot for example stretch up your arms fully in those tight uniforms... And add to that all the corruption and the lack of C-rations that have not had its date expired. Russian troops are forced to eat rotten food or wasting time plundering stores. Well to sum up. If the last mobilization gave Russia this junk quality infantry + T54 and T55 tanks. Then I don't think the next wave of mobilization will be any good either. As the stocks of weapons runs out might they be forced to lower their standards even more and give even crappier equipment to their troops. The ultranationalists will have to realize that even a 5 and a 6th and 7th wave of mobilization will not solve the problem. What should they do next when they don't even have uniforms and WW2 rifles and AK47 left for everyone? Let people attack with hunting rifles, WW2 uniforms and T-34 tanks? All to conquer the provinces Donetsk and Luhansk which are just depopulated ruins at this point of time.
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  44. A large number of russian units within FSB's territorial defense, Spetsnaz, the presidents own national guard Rosgvardia and the regular army commited mutiny during the weekend and joined Prigozhins coup. This includes some of Russias best remaining military units, and the consequences of that should not be estimated. The source of the list Denis Zelenko: Military unit 11659: Command of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (RosGvardia), 411th Detachment of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade 108th Bataysk GRU Spetsnaz Detachment 387th Object “C” of the 12th Main Defence Ministry Directorate (nuclear), Voronezh-45. FSB Border guards at Bugaevka FSB Federal Border Service of the regional command center for Voronezh region FSB Border Service at Chertkovo Unit 7437: RosGvardia Spetsnaz motorized regiment. Unit 3677: RosGvardia Separate Battalion Unit 63453: Separate Tank Brigade in Boguchar HQ from the 22nd SPF (SF) brigade The last unit mentioned are fighting togheter with the 45th brigade on the Ukrainian front against the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and it is considered as Russias best military unit. When those units will get purged by Putin it could become a bloody affair, aside from Russia loses some of its best remaining special units. And if those units take up arms to not get slaughtered like pigs - then there will be another civil war. Worth noticing on this list is that one of those units is a nuclear weapons unit. Putin gave a problem, far larger than just Prigozhins trip over the rainbowbridge to the big potato field in Belarussia. No amnesty has been declared for all the units which have switched side, but only for the troops in the Wagner group. And a large number of special units and entire regiments of the presidents national guard have switched their loyalty, and they will likely not bend down to Putins will - unless he crush those who have joined the rebellion.
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