Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Anders Puck Nielsen"
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That problem is already here. Russia now lacks counter-battery radars and skilled crews, skilled artillery observers and they doesn't seem to bother sending up drones to direct their artillery fire. Their gun barrels are wearing themselves out so they put old tanks like T-55 and T-62 into service to fill the role of artillery when there is a lack of artillery pieces.
In the past one could see a battery of four guns lined up on a field in Ukraine firing on one and the same target. But now that it no longer the case. Now you only see 1 gun on the field. The Russians are spreading out their guns for an unknown reason. Perhaps to avoid getting hit by artillery as easily? Regardless is this tactic extremely ineffective from a logistical standpoint when you have to transport artillery ammunition to 4 different locations to feed your guns with ammo.
And a single gun firing a shot at a target every 45 seconds is not effective either. Preferbly one wants to fire all guns at once at a single target, but not the Russians. They only use one gun at one target independently.
And nor do they bother to correct their artillery fire when it misses, by say 200 meters. But instead it fire again and again at the same spot, like they are more interested in hitting a spot on the map rather than targeting a specific enemy object on the ground which they want to destroy.
So not only are Russian guns firing 5 times less shots per day than the last summer - 12.000 today vs. 60.000 shots per day last summer. Their artillery fire is also more inaccurate. And the heavy losses lately suffered in counter-battery radars have rendered the Russian artillery unable to now fight off the Ukrainian artillery.
The Ukrainians have since a few months back in time become very relaxed with positioning their own artillery and have been concentrating many guns at the same spot and have been sitting on the same place for weeks. And Ukraine got counter-battery radars like Cobra sent from Germany, they got better guns (Archer, Caesar, Panzerhaubitze, HIMARS, M270 M777), more high precision ammunition such as BONUS rounds sent from France or Excalibur sent from Canada. And they correct their artillery fire with drones. So their artillery is very precise and deadly and got a better range.
Russian losses in armor have been heavy. Both for their tanks and for their APCs/IFVs.
Their usage of old T-55 and T-62 tanks can reflect upon that fact as well. And they lack tank skilled crews, or at least that is the impression I get from their stupid noob mistake manouvers in the minefields around Vuhledar. Russia does also not seem to possess any mechanized infantry that are trained to assist their tanks. So if their armored offensives was a failure last year and got slaughtered by the Ukrainians, then I think this year and the coming year will be worse.
Now Russia use older crappier tanks with even less survivability against modern weapons. Its crews are even more unskilled than the troops used last year. And the Ukrainians have learned a lot from the fighting last year how to deploy their anti-tank weapons. And now they got more options to choose among. They can now kill tanks with BONUS rounds from artillery, German anti-tank mines, and western tanks.
And you don't need a javelin, Panzerfaust-3 or NLAW to kill those older crappy Russian tanks that are now used. You can probably just as well kill them with an AT-4, RPG-7, TOW or even the old PV-1110. But Russian tankers also have to fear drones and other anti-tank weapons that Ukraine uses, such as Matador, MILAN, Stugna-P, Carl-Gustaf, and Soviet made anti-tank guns.
Ukraine got a broad spectrum of anti-tank weapons with all kinds ranges, penetration power, attack modes and production costs. They can easily rip even T-14 armata tanks to pieces with DPU ammo, javelins and panzerfaust-3 if the need emerge.
While lighter APCs are food for Leopard 1's, French armored cars and CV90.
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This war is not about Russia and has never been about it. Right now it is about Putin. If he lose this war, then his career is over and he might get a trial as a war criminal, get forced into exile, or get murdered by a russian bloodthirsty shark like himself. So he wants to avoid that.
He also have this ideological view that russia must be strong and never allow it to be humilitated. Dictatorships like Russia and China don't mind being seen as evil, and what scares them is to be seen as weak and unsignificant.
A Chinese bot gets more offended about a "Made in China" joke about junk quality plastic toys, than he is about fact based arguments and moral indignation about severe human rights abuses against the Uighurs. And the same goes for Russia.
The worst thing that could happen in their view would be that the west laughs at their incompetent outdated military and
mockingly do not take their nuclear threats seriously. Being seen as bad guys making nuclear threats and terror bombing civilians on a daily basis are things that bothers them much less.
Hencefourth do I think we should aim for a historical humiliation of Russia.
Make them accept the unaccepatable: A humiliating defeat.
Let them know that any attempts of Russian imperialism could lead to Russia getting worse off after the war than before it.
That will make them think twice the next time they consider starting a war of aggression.
The little child needs some spanking so it learns to know its place. It can do whatever it wants within its countries own borders. But if it tries to steal things from other kids, then it should have its teeths kicked in.
And since empathy and sympathy are arguments which have obviously not worked on the Russian people to make them stop - as 90% of the Russians still supports this war of aggression and genocide. Like 90% of the Russians supported the war of aggression against Chechenya and theft of Crimea...
So is my suggestion that we replace argument of sympathy and empathy with something else since they don't work on bullies. Empathy and sympathy works on normal people, but not on psychopaths like Putin who is prepared to make nuclear threats, a man who lies and breaks international laws, kidnaps childrens, and makes a hitman list over the Ukrainian intelligentia which he wants to murder to destroy Ukrainian opposition to Russias illegal occupation.
So my suggestion is simple:
We should not try to convince Russia with sympathy and empathy. We should force them to abide by international law and make them respect international borders by *fear*. Our superior military, economic strength and our diplomatic influence and soft power should be 100% dedicated to totally destroying Russia unless they back off.
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@toms169
But couldn't that be because German industry is dependent on russian gas and therefore want to go back to buisness as usual as soon as possible and is fearful to burn all bridges with russia? And then there are German politicians who (probably?) are in the pockets of FSB... like Schröder, Wagenknecht, AfD, the socialdemocrats and so on.
So of course are they against a hardline against russia. And then you got a million strong russian decendents who are pro-russia. And many east Germans have this confused views on Ost-Politik, appeasement, admiration for Putin/Orbans anti-LGBT conservatism, and so on. And then you got stupid pacifists, and women who sincere uncontrollable fear of a nuclear war.
So a consensus is hard to reach. And it is hard to combine new policies with old German political tradition.
And this could explain why Germany is hesitant to send Taurus.
However Germany is not the main problem in Europe. I think the Italian and French indifference to Ukraines fate is more worriesome right now. And Slovakia and Hungary are openly hostile to Ukraine, and USA have even recently held a Nato meeting (togheter with Sweden) where the issue of Hungary was discussed, as there are a concern that this country is acting like a pro-russian Trojan horse inside Nato.
Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia and a few other East European countries do care more about their own farmers than helping the wartorn Ukrainian economy to stay afloat.
I also think that russian FSB have infiltrated our media and is pumping out russian propaganda talking points: "The war is over", "Ukraine cannot win", "Ukraine is forgotten now coz Israel", "The counter-offensive was a massive failure", "Ukrainian losses are heavy and unsubstainable", and such nonsense.
Especially New York Times have pumped out pro-russian garbage throughout this war, with all kinds of lies. They claim that USA destroyed the Northstream pipeline according to an anonymous source. Or that allies are trying to force Zelensky to make peace right now.
Personally I think Ukraine has done pretty well this year. Russian artillery have been dealt a severe blow with losing 5000 pieces this year. They have lost their most modern pieces and now more and more use old D1 artillery pieces from WW2 as a replacement. Ukraine now almost have a monopoly on counter-battery radars. And Ukraine now fires more artillery shells per day than russia despite EU have failed to give more than 30% of the 1 million artillery shells it have promised to give to Ukraine. And now russia also lacks experienced artillery crews.
This is devestating I think. A much more hard blow to russia than if they had lost Kherson and Zaporizhia provinces this year. Think about it. This is an artillery war. And russian artillery is nearly extinct because of Ukraines systematic hunt for their artillery pieces. And imagine having to fight this war for 10 years without artillery. That would be devestating for russia. You cannot fight defensive war effectivly without artillery, and even less so can you make any attacks.
So I think russia is doomed if we keep on supporting Ukraine.
Russian industry only produce something like 200.000 artillery shells per year (according to Ukrainian sources) or 1 million (according to russian sources). But when russia consumes 17 million artillery shells this year and 22 million back in 2022... then I think russia no longer can keep on fighting the war next year like they have the previous years. And 1 million artillery shells imported from North Korea will only shortly delay the coming starvation of artillery shells.
And without artillery shells will more infantry die and losses starts to go up. Ukraine knows what this hardship means, and soon will russia also begin to feel it.
I also suspect that the russian propaganda about their economy doing fine is just nonsense. Having a 15% interest rate is not what I call a healthy economy. When people have to pay more money to the banks for their homeloans, credit card debts, car loans, student debts and so on.. before they can start buying food, books, cinemas tickets and furniture.. then I think that the russian economy will slowly starve itself to death. If no one can afford to buy stuff anymore will factories be forced to shut down, or to lower wages or fire workers. And when people no longer get a wage, then they will be even more unable to buy anything - so factories have to downscale production even more and lay off workers.
And that means less taxes coming in to the government, and more people that needs unemployment benefits and welfare to survive when they cannot work and support themselves.
I also think it is difficult for companies to earn a 15% profit per year so they can afford to both repay their loans and make a profit. And on top of that they also need to pay for wages, repairs for machines, and for material inputs for production.
So I think the desperate measure of raising interest rates to prevent the ruble from falling will become very harmful to the russian economy. And they will probably have to raise interest rates even more in the future.
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@frankhusel5033 The Wehrmacht was tactically excellent, and it was strategically capable of understanding how to conquer for example a city. Germany did some stupid grand strategy mistakes - but that is another matter.
And the German troops were willing to fight, while the russian military have always been plauged with mass surrenders. And while the SS behaved like swine on the eastern front, would I still say that the Wehrmacht were much more civilized. More civilized than the red army which were always firing on ambulances, and had the habit of gangraping little girls, killing wounded soldiers at hospitals and mutilating captured enemy soldiers, beating them and starving them to death - a tradition which Putin seems to have preserved.
The Wehrmacht did however by contrast usually obey the Geneva convention. At least on the western front.
The Clean Wehrmacht is a myth, but on the other hand is it a myth that all men in the army was evil bastards. Most of the men who served wanted to treat russian civilians well and captured red army soldiers with the same respect as soldiers captured in the west.
But because of the commisar order from Hitler did the German army also partially participate in the killing of communists and jews.
However, I will still say that the red army was worse and did more war crimes than the German army.
And from a historical perspective is the russian army the most barbaric of all. With warcrimes against Swedes, Finns, Poles, Germans, and brutal occupation of Czechs, slovaks and Hungarians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, and more warcrimes and terror bombings in Syria, Chechenya, Georgia, Dagestan and Afghanistan. Genocide on hundreds of thousands of jews during world war 1.
And warcrimes by the Wagner group in Africa.
Warcrimes against civilians is built in into the Russian way of war. That differs it from other European armies who do not deliberatly kill civilians and use rape as a war tactic.
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@ulrikschackmeyer848
They have been fighting a war and maybe they are fully busy with that. So maybe I don't blame the pilots as much as I would blame the Ukrainian government for not thinking a single step ahead. This language problem was completly predictable and could have been foreseen and solved months ago. Realizing that they need to learn english in the middle of the summer of this year seems a bit dumb 🙄
I mean the west have talked about giving Ukraine fighter jets since at least january.
Ukrainians take credit upon themselves and blame the lack of aid from the west for all military failures instead of being honest and admit that not everything is the wests fault.
Dumb incompetence like this do certainly cause some problems fighting this war as well.
Ukrainian propaganda is extremely dumb sometimes. They say that they will continue to fight regardless if the west helps them or not, and take the last years succesful defense of their country as an example of that.
But that are lies. And I demand honesty and gratefulness to its allies instead of using them as scapegoats for ukraines dissapointments on the battlefields.
Fact remains that Ukraine would have lost this war by now if it was not for the west. Without western artillery would the stocks of 152mm shells have runned out and the ukrainian military would have been forced to fight without artillery support - which would definatly made Ukraine lose the war regardless how brave their soldiers may be.
Javelins, stingers, HIMARS, Patriot, Gepard are also system which Ukraine could not have done without.
And the economic aid from USA and EU have been vital for propping up an economy suffering from enemy occupation, sea blockades, destruction, refugees, young men in the military, landmines on farmlands, energy blackouts, rationing...
So giving west blame for everything is unfair. I sympatize with the Ukrainian cause as my web history the last 1.5 years bare witness of. I think it have taken 8 full months for just the training to get started. That is poor performance by both Nato and Ukraine.
We should have started training instantly. Which aircraft would be delievered, in what amounts, with what modifications and what nationality of those planes and such details could be sorted out later while the pilots are training. But for some reason do people at Nato to be very inflexible in their line of thought 🙄
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@evgeniya7853
Explain how Russia is a great power then?
Is it the size of the population? No because Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan and Indonesia and Brazil all got more people than russia. And none of those countries are a super power.
Is it because russia got nuclear weapons?
No, because North Korea and Pakistan also got nuclear weapons.
Is it because Russia got an aircraft carrier?
No. Thailand, Spain, Turkey and Italy also got weak aircraft carriers like Russia and none of them are considered a Super power.
Is it because the Russian economy is strong?
No. Because Brazil, Italy and Canada all got a higher GDP than russia. Russias standard of living is low. Its manufacturing is weak. The country have no Fortune 500 companies that are not related to oil & energy, or banking related to energy - and to me this is great sign of economic weakness.
I would not even rank the country among the 20 most important economies in the world. Add to that all problems that harms long term economic growth such as corruption and enviromental pollution that destroys public health, kill fish stocks and wild animals and plants and trees.
Is russia a super power because of its military?
Not really. Given the levels of corruption, outdated doctrine, ineffiecent logistics, outdated equipment, poor training and lack of dicipline would I feel much more afraid of going to war against Japan, South Korea or India than I would be against Russia.
Is Russia a great power because of its global cultural influence?
No, I have never bought anything made in Russia, aside from some IKEA glass that said made in Russia. But IKEA is a Swedish company and I am a Swede.. so allow me to not be so impressed.
I cannot say that Russian culture have left much impression on me. Its not like I watch any Russian TV series like I do with CSI from USA or Black Adder. I buy Nintendo from Japan and Heineken beer from the Netherlands, drive French cars, listen to ABBA from Sweden, play with Danish Lego. But what everyday item do I get from russia? I dunno.
So for that reason do I not regard russia as a cultural super power either.
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