Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "Good Times Bad Times" channel.

  1. What really needs to be discussed is how Turkey, both as a direct backer and overt supporter of Sunni Ideology, is to benefit. Oil rights? Water control? Greater influence over Iraq, and through which undermining of Iran?
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  2. Alex did a great job! Just not quite the voice we've come to trust.
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  3. The alamite issue is tricky. They were often collaborators in an oppressive government. Not that all were. But to you let Bashir supporters who commited crimes walk away or risk over punishment of a group. Even if you strike the perfect balance, you will be accused of both.
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  4. ​ @thephoenix215-po2it They make Navy ships still
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  5. Thank goodness the video has the fine Polish I've come to o expect.
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  6. The property crash is an intentional result of Chinese policy to lower housing prices and reduce building. Exports and FDI are due to sanctions, and imports being down is in some ways beneficial, the chip war being the main issue. I expect exports to pick back up in the second half of the decade and Chinese solar panels begin being exported. Deflation is again partially intentional. Youth unemployment is not homogeneous, and mainly effects rural uneducated youth and woman who are being pushed to have kids instead of work. I agree China has substantial issues, the aging demographic key among them, but they used the demographic well to create a surplus of infrastructure, housing, and renewable energy going forward. I expect them to enter a recession in the next year, but I don't expect anything near a depression.
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  7. It's claimed in the video more territory means needing more defenders. I disagree with this, the former border had to be defended regardless. By moving into Russia, the Ukrainians are able to target the E38 highway, amd weaken Russia logistics in the entire North. They have also taken two layers of Russian trenchs, and are likely to eventually push the Russians out to the Sjem. Overall this more defensable position with greater room to fall back lowers the number of troops required.
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  8. If the Sudanese Government can push the RSF out or take an advantage, there is a real risk rebels will flood west into Chad and destabilize what is currently the only relatively secure country in the Sahel.
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  9. ​ @matanelsiboni9269  Israel did assassinate someone in the "Iranian white house". I can't imagine Israel would have not bombed a country in a similar situation.
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  10. The conflict should be viewed in the regional context as much as National. Arab and Islamic malitias have been taking power or leading rebellions across the Sahel, notably the coup belt to the west. Burkina Faso is a center of Islamic terrorism, but the entire region has become a hub. To the North the Lybian civil war, while not as strongly ethnic in context, does have a relevant religious element. Even to the North Egypt has been dealing with Muslem brotherhood rebel groups in Sinai, and of course the Gaza conflict rages on its border. Its easy to condem the military government of Egypt, but important to consider what a democratically elected islamic government could mean for the region. The South Sudan conflict isn't long in the past, and the Potential for south Sudan to be included in the conflict is very real. And Ethiopia to the south is teetering on civil war, with Eritrea likely to be pulled in. And further south of South Sudan, Rwanda ans Uganda are brewing conflict with the Congo. The RSF, along with Lybian mercenaries fought in Yemen under UAE employ, where they were improved in caliber. The UAEs context in pushing these Arab militias should not be understated, nor should Russias role under the Wagner banner in destabilizing the region to access cheap mineral wealth. Africa is at risk of seeing war from The Congo to the Mediterranean and the Rea sea to the Atlantic. And Sudan is at the Center.
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  11.  @matanelsiboni9269  which was after Israel attacked an Iranian embassy. This is a very long term tit for tat that's been going on for a decade. Between supporting Iran and Israel I'd prefer Israel, but I'd also prefer Israel follow human rights laws and stop expecting unilateral control over the region.
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  12.  @adamelghalmi9771  but greater control of Syria is greater control of Iraq's water, over oil pipelines, and over a very porous border.
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  13. ​ @agitador UAE and Arab Colonialism perhaps, the Sudan was an Egyptian/Ottoman Colony long before Europeans knew you couldn't sail west to Asia
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  14. Unfortunately you should add that the Ukrainian line of defense has been breached in several places. I had expected the line to hold russia until mid September at least, this may be a bad sign.
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  15. Russia would have just invaded again in a few years.
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  16. My understanding is that the Saudi's heavily funded the production of the Pakistani nuclear program, and had access either through transfer or NATO style sharing if Iran gets access.
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  17. So... Somalia is the only non-autocracy? It's not exactly a role model.
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  18. What will happen to Syrian Army supporters? I have heard they are in Sudan helping set up Russian bases? In the long run will they be the newest group of militants for hire in the Sahara and middle east?
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  19. I believe you are.
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  20. ​ @mohammedahmed1109 Don't be absurd as though the Ottomans hadn't colonized most of North Africa long Before Europeans were sailing or Islam wasn't spread to the region through war and displacement a thousand years ago.
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  21. I just want to point out while thier are a huge Surplus of units to the population, they are largely shoeboxes. It wouldn't surprise me to see walls ripped out to make 2 units into a single, small unit.
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  22.  @aneurindavies5943  What on earth is that meant to mean
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  23. Well that simply is untrue.
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  24. This war could be effectively ended by ending the Lybian civial war. This is mot the industrial war of Russia and Ukraine or Irans and Isreal. This is people in pick up trucks with small arms. If the Supply routes for fuel and arms can be cut, the war ends.
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  25. Egypt has probably been dealt the worst hand of any country. Literally every one of its neighbors is currently at war, including the Houthis closing the Red sea and Israel and Palestine blocking Natural Gas development. And that's following Covid shutting down tourism and shipping for 2 years, and it's two largest food suppliers going to eat with eachother. You hear a lot about the "risky" mega projects, but realistically most of these were needed. How can you anticipate things going so poorly all outside your domestic control.
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  26. that's a pretty gross exaggeration, Islam plays no Part in Ukraine and Russia or the Koreas or Taiwan. Generally the actual religion plays little role in conflicts in the middle east/North Africa as well, but because of porous and somewhat randomly drawn boarders the name of islam is used as a unifying flag for the arab population.
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  27.  @dan61131  I like you're optimism but not only is that not tactically or logistically possible but it would be political suicide in terms of western support or Russian support or even being big enough to actually lead to a nuclear warhead. It apears with some small fighting along the Sjem aside, the Ukrainians are digging in at this point, not continuing the offensive now that the element of suprised has lost value.
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  28.  @muhammadadeel8639  wow. That's a new claim
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  29. We need a UN Mandate over both Palestinian regions, with a coalition council of Saudi, Egypt, and Jordan (and potentially UAE and Turkey) in charge, and a local Palestinian police force under their Command, and a small IDF rapid reaction force also acting as peace keepers under the councils command. We obviously can't have local rule, Hamas is an example of the danger, and the population is widely radicalized for understandable reason. We obviously can't allow Arab military control of the region, as Israel would never allow it. And we obviously can't have Israel in control. This allows accomodation of all. The mandate should last 20 years, with an off road map allowing local elections for a continuation of mandate, single Palestinian state, two seperate Palestinian states (and a second election for Gaza if it chose unification and West Bank chose to go alone, for example), an option for West Bank to join Jordan, and Gaza to join Egypt, or either to join Israel. That provides skin in the game for all members to aim for successful development. Syria, Iraq, Morocco, Lebanon, Kuwait, and Qatar should also be in an advisory role, with potential for the UN to swap them in if a state in the council sees a government direction not amenable. And Israel should be allowed certain veto rights that can be over ridden with UN general vote to address security concerns.
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  30. @lif6737 excellent reply.
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  31.  @skp8748  I don't think its correct to call it a full scale civil war, I would agree its a localized insurgency, amd along witht the Tigray militias what I am referring to by teetering. But if this constitutes a civil war, than Egypt should be said to be in Civil war due to the insurgency in the Sinia, ans I don't think most would agree that Egypt is in civil war. edit: also, when you say for 5 years, you're encompassing two conflicts, which while related, effect different regions and involved differing groups, with Fano backing the government in the Tigray war. But regardless, it doesn't really undermine my point on the stTe of the region.
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  32.  @TheGrace020  don't underestimate your enemy.
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  33. What I think is under discussed is the absolute GLUT of oxygen this implies. If electrolysis becomes the norm, oxygen co-produced is going to dwarf modern ASU production, which may make a slew of technologies relevant. Oxycombstion comes to mind, burning NG or Biomass in pure oxygen removes Nitrogen from the flue gas, which makes the products just H20 and C02, and its very easy to seperate water from a gas. In some places, that water might even be a valuable product, like SAGD in the oil sands. Also, Casinos tend to pump in oxygen to make you stay awake feel good and gamble all night. Maybe morally dubious, but I would be interested in seeing if boosting O2 during the mid day in retirement homes had a similar effect.
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  34.  @somebody7337  maybe Ukraine has lost land now, but Russia has been entirely crippled in doing so, and Ukraine will walk away with security guarantees.
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  35. I feel so dumb for not having thought to look into this
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  36. @herdimmunity2507  I think Turkey in all likelihood can work well with Israel. Not being Arab and having a history of dealing with Arabs in a certain way I don't think there is much friction. I also don't think they will necessarily do poorly as the regional power; although I wouldn't suggest the ottoman empire is a useful argument for modern Turkey's ability
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  37. I want to say the Irish set the precedent. Or maybe Serbia. Could have been Algeria though. Edit: wait was it the US?
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  38. Well, tbf, the current military government is in charge because they kicked out the Muslim brotherhood, and they won't let Gazans in because they are worried it will add to their ongoing insurgency by the Muslim brotherhood in Sinia.
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  39.  @Ese_osa  I think that's a slight simplification because the USSR was the legal owner, not Russia, and Ukraine was constituent to it. By the same argument though Lithuania and Tajikistan were nuclear powers. Similar to if Washington state left the US,m and returned Nukes. But some USSR member states like Ukraine had UN seats, so it's again more complex. But according to the Budapest memorandum, all signatories including Russia and the US agrees the Nukes were the legal property of Ukraine prior to transfer.
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  40.  @philjameson292  if India can can it's sh*t together. They are, like China, aiming to use renewables to shoot forward with aggressive plans (in action) to build domestic supply chains. But the issue is they have no manufacturing outside of that, they are more energy import dependent than China, and franking they are still the r@pe capital of the world, outside cities the people are still very... Traditional. Which doesn't make for great social systems in the current era. But if the renewable push works to build a high tech manufacturing sector, they have the world's best location for cheap renewable energy, and could see very low cost manufacturing between energy and labour cost.
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  41.  @Hession0Drasha  Ya and then those colonies leave you and put up tariffs.
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  42. ​ @injest1928 While you're correct, particularly in North Africa where Arab and Black african comminies intersect, Islam itself is regularly used as a reason to dehumanize others.
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  43.  @yakov95000  The first part I agree with entirely, although I do blame Israel for the conditions that allowed Iran to create a proxy in Gaza. To the second point that's entirely true. It doesn't really change that it obviously necessitated an Iranian response.
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  44.  @thephoenix215-po2it  they still outclass China in building Nuclear Submarines and i would argue in a peer to peer conflict surface vessels have limited use in modern times. But certainly I agree China builds far more ships, naval and conventional. i was just trying to point out there is an industry in existence to grow on, rather than having to start from scratch
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  45.  @dain6250  the irony with your statement (which is largely agreeable to me) is that the area actually under Israeli occupation (west bank) isn't the source of issue, and the area Israel exited to allow an attempt at Palestinian state hood and independence is where the attacks come from.
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  46.  @hmada1222000  you know Israeli jws come from middle easter countries, and the European ones are mainly in New York, right?
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  47.  @SpaceMarine500  both? Both.
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  48. Idk what it is but something about the presentation seems unpolished.
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  49. Hey, that was the US' post war Afghanistan plan. Stop ripping off other peoples homework.
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  50.  @007kingifrit  times are very different. For one thing, several Arab states recognize Israel (as would any state in the governing council have to be required to). And unlike the 1940s, most of those Arab countries have seen their own Jewish populations leave to Israel, and I truely don't believe they want to take action that would lead to their return. Israel allowed these countries to deal with their own "Jew problems" without taking action. Also, unlike the previous UN mandate, this would be under an Arab controlled coalition.
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