Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "Good Times Bad Times" channel.

  1.  @russellrhoades3044  I have to say, I disagree broadly. Solar prices have dropped to the lowest cost of production, particularly on longer timescales. There is a reason Texas of all places builds enormous amounts. I think they are very likely to pull off the heist. Even outside of economics, they have strong strategic incentives, including the above mentioned impact to North American economies. Belt and road certainly had mixed results, but it's given China enormous influence in Pakistan and Africa. And most of the high-speed rail net work does make a profit, only the long distance lines to very rural areas like Tibet or Xinjiang are lose money, but again that has much more to do with strategic policy. As for the last point I think it's quite difficult to argue China consumes more than it produces.
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  2.  @WinterXR7  The troops to be sent to hold Kursk were already having to hold the Ukrainian boarder. The distance to be defended has not changed, and the topography has been improved. Ukraine doesn't need to semd more troops now that the assult is over and its moving to a defensive mode.
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  3.  @WinterXR7  So to the first poi t we're in complete agreement, obviously the mechanized infantry brigades that led the Kurst assult were not whoever was guarding the border - my point is that now that Ukraine is moving into a defense mode those elite units will be reassigned to return to Pokrovs or a new offensive, and the troops who were previously holding the border will simply move forward to the new defensive lines. Certainly a number of troops were needed for the invasion, but all else being equal the better terrain means fewer units are needed to hold the region than were needed to hold the border. The conscripts captured who will be traded for actual Ukrainian soldiers should also be considered. To your bottom point, I'd suggest it matters very little of the Russians take most of the area leading to Pokrovs this week or in a year. If Trump is elected, a peace deal would almost certainly involve losing Pokrovs regardless, so fighting harder to hold it isn't a gain. If Harris wins, I expect material and political support for Ukraine to be decisive, and while the fighting will enter the city I don't believe Russia will be capable capturing the city. Kurst seems more valuable to in either regard, either as a bargain chip or as a defensive position undermining Putin's authority. I think the most determining factor is whether Ukraine can hold Russia a km or two from Pokrovs until the mud buys time for western equipment amd new troops to arrive and better defensive positions to be built, and also time for the Russian economic and financial position to worsen and public opinion and troop moral to turn. And with the mentioned elite units being pulled out of Kursk to return to defensive actions holding back Russia seems achievable, but the amount of ground lost and the seemingly ineffective Ukrainian fortified positions is disturbing. If Russia makes it into the city before winter it will still take months to capture but but terms are distinctly worse for Ukraine. That said, unless the world is willing to bring nuclear armed russia to the point of a WW1 Germany collapes, Ukraine is forced to take actions which are of greater risk but may offer a winning condition, rather yhan settle for the safer choice and simply lose a year later.
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  4.  @amnont8724  it's not, because the countries you listed aren't actively fighting a war against Ukrainian minorities in their own countries.
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  5. The alamite issue is tricky. They were often collaborators in an oppressive government. Not that all were. But to you let Bashir supporters who commited crimes walk away or risk over punishment of a group. Even if you strike the perfect balance, you will be accused of both.
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  6. What does 25 to 13 hundred mean exactly? In regards to Hezbollah's rocket launch rate
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  7.  @shafsteryellow  you missed Kenya, but I agree it's a bad neighborhood and I'm not saying a dictatorship would make Somalia better. I am saying Japan and Singapore are basically one party dictatorships, and pretty good though.
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  8.  @Omer1996E.C  Yes but capital subsidies are far more effective than tariffs. One means a more competitive market, the other less.
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  9. Do you here what you're saying? Its like saying a business taking on debt can't invest... thats how they invest.
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  10. I think we'll see a second strengthing of China as their renewable roll out plateaus and they being exporting massive quantities of Solar and Wind. Cheap Chinese solar will be very powerful across the MENA region and south Asia, and their energy independence will remove a major weakness of the economy.
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  11.  @eca3101  ya it shouldn't be read seriously it ends in "greater Egyptian Military Imperium" lol
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  12. You can't ship energy across the ocean with batteries, whereas you can put ammonia on a ship in Egypt or Saudi Arabia or South Australia produced with cheap solar, and ship it to Japan. You also can't heat a furnace to 800 degrees with a battery, so hydrogen is the only real alternative to NG unless you want every plant to have a nuclear reactor. If we ever get cheap enough at producing hydrogen, it might displace batteries all together, because China can't control the supply chain and it has a higher energy density.
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  13.  @georgesmith4768  I agree in large part on the first point, and we do have Phosphate batteries already, and Canada has Cobalt as well. But hydrogen would mean an industry China doesn't have a large scale manufacturing and technology lead in, and would remove the need for rare earths and the associated mining the western countries are uncomfortable with. I think industrial heating is more relevant than you realize. The issue with electric furnace is the anodes degrade very quickly. I may be bias toward hydrogen because I've worked in that area, but at least 6 years ago there was no serious scalable electric furnace being proposed outside steel or aluminum recycling. As for the last part, it may simply be cheaper to produce ammonia in Saudi Arabia than solar energy in Germany. The higher resource availability in some regions is a significant discount, particularly if you plan on using some of that energy to create a long term/medium term storage anyway. Additionally, Japan is betting on co-firing Ammonia and coal, and eventually directly in Coal plants, to take advantage of existing infrastructure, and hoping to export that to South Asian countries which also are coal reliant.
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  14. Biggest thing - Oil and Energy independence. China is pushing hard, very hard, on building out EVs and renewables and making incredible progress. At the same time, they are increasing oil production yearly. I'm Canadian, and I see this in part as an attack on US and Canadian oil production. A sharp decline in prices from loss of Chinese (and US and EU) demand is going to crash the high production cost oil in Canada and the US, and trigger a recession.
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  15. I agree 3¢ a KW hour is like the low South Korea was approaching. I can only assume it's because they are old plants which have paid down construction like you said.
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  16.  @BhagatSinghRajguruSukhdevFan  I don't believe they have a great relationship. They are on opposing sides of regional struggles like Armenia and Syria, Turkey is pro Sunni and Iran is Shia, they compete for control of Iraq and have differing approaches to the Kurds, they are competing for influence and weapon sales in Central Asia.
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  17. Another long term infrastructure plan Germany should be celebrated is the electric highway. They have thousands of Km of what are basically trolley/street car overhead wires planned aling highways so the Transport Trucks can operate electrically. That would allow not just long distance electric trucking, but allow it with a small battery that only has to cover 50km to the hoghway, where it van charge as you drive, and then power you 50km to a destination.
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  18.  @mehrshadvr4  awe yes, the age old question of the Middle East, do you support Apartheid against Arabs or Apartheid against Women. Personally I think the Ottomans struck the right balance of Apartheid against both; but who hasn't wanted to see their sister or wife stoned to death by public officials for not wearing a scarf. I take no issue with Islam. But Islam teaches that humans were given free will. I have no tolerance for a state that forces its religious moral codes in spite of the will of God. Edit: your reply appears to have been removed, I think because of your edit, because I saw the original in the thread, and only see the edited version as a reply to me. I would be of the opinion this is a gambit of Iran's to put increased public pressure in the region against western aligned governments, an already existing pressure. And I appreciate your frankness on the Baha'i. And I apologize for the snideness of my original remark. I agree with your characterization of Israel as an apartheid state, but disagree strongly that it is therefore the morally worse of the options in the region.
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  19.  @matanelsiboni9269  both states have been fighting a cold war since before I was alive. Acting as though Israel doesn't actively work against Iran is disingenuous. Iran arms proxies who fight against Israel. America arms Ukraine to fight against Russia. But for Russia to attack an American installation would obviously be escalatory.
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  20. @arthas640  yes, but the Islamic republic was formed a year after the 1978 Israeli incursion and in the same decade as the Yom Kippur war in which Israel seized significant territory from Arab neighbors (who of course started it, but also had not recognized Israel as a state and saw it as a continuation of earlier conflict, and it could be compared to much of the globes continued recognition of Crimea as Ukrainian when it is defacto Russian). Which is to say it's understandable Muslim opinion was against Israel. Personally I think you're being a little to kind in suggesting Iran is kind to Shia Muslims by default. I don't believe the Ayatollah or revolutionary council really cares beyond increasing the scope of its influence, any more than I believe in the Russian Orthodox church. But I agree that as long as Israel and the Saudis, and Turkey, aim to be the Regional power Iran will act with hostility.
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  21.  @AL-lh2ht  Arab nationalism and Russian access to cheap gold is a key element to both Sudan and the Sahel coups. I agree the Sudan is an independent conflict, but much like in Mali where the Tuareg separatists were originally trained and operated out of Lybia, the RSF has been heavily impacted by ongoing Lybian civial war as mercenaries. Both conflicts should be seens as the result of the collapse of the Lybian state. The RSF also includes a large number of foreign Tuareg mercenaries from Niger and Mali, as well as Chad and South Sudan. The people in reference are traditionally nomadic and don't necessarily see borders as meaningful. A collapse of the RSF will see these groups returning to other sahel countries where they will likely increase seperatist or rebel activity as they did with the collapses of Lybia.
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  22.  @taxirob2248  last year China built more solar than in use across all of Europe. That's the scale of the manufacturing, that it's grown from almost non-existent to 8% of electrical output in 3 years. They have the manufacturing to produce something like 10% of their entire system capacity, the largest energy user in the world, a year in Solar panels. I could not care less about China burning coal today or next year. What I care about is that a third of vehicles sold in China last year were EVs. They haven't done all this as some Psych op. It's literally meant to be the foundation of their economy for the next 30 years. They are absolutely buying enormous quantities of renewables and Electric vehicles. They're doing it because they are afraid of being dependent on energy imports (and only have 30 years of coal reserves), because they want to be the energy exporter, and because collapsing oil demand will destroy American Fracking and Canadian oil sands Mining. And I care because while it will put the US in recession, it's going to send Canada into an absolute depression. Also, a great deal of the hydroelectric growth has been pumped storage to store energy from renewables.
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  23.  @aachoocrony5754  bra you've made like a dozen comments all seem to be trolling. I'll take you seriously for one reply but not if you repeat. What are you trying to say? That China won't have an loss of growth? I think given the reigning in of both local government debt and construction debt, the two engines of China, it's very unlikely there isn't at least a technical recession. Frankly, I think it's being well handled and I have a lot of respect for CCP economic policy. I don't think the average person will see loss of quality of life. But the upper middle class and upper class will and are certainly seeing a loss of wealth. Suggesting growth is going to continue as the government actively reigns it in on one hand and the west cuts investment and imports on the other is ideological at best imo.
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  24.  @aachoocrony5754  not sure how rising housing prices make me poorer there chief since I own a house. China owned something like 4% of US debt at peak and it's now something like 2% so I think you're flexing a little to hard. Certainly agree the US became reliant on China in the 2000s via trade but now the US has the IRA and China can't get microchips. What's with all the elephants and Pluto's? is that like a Chinese proverb?
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  25. 25 to 30 hundred makes more sense to me, although I think this could have been phrased better.
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  26.  @TimJBenham  jesus
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  27. With a few small Changes I think China's system could constitute a democracy, if of a different form, and I agree with your point
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  28.  @Dman6779  lol this has nothing with a "petrodollar" it wouldn't matter if we used clam shells as currency, the issue is the US and Canada rely heavily on petroleum exports, and China as the world's largest importer as the dual incentive of cutting demand to improve its trade position and push North America into recession. The price of oil has to do with the profitability of producing it, and shale fracking and oil sands mining isn't cheap. Low oil prices bother the Saudis and Russians but they kill us. I'm not clear where your rant is going at the end. Yes we need to move off oil. We don't need to see the North American industry collapse while low prices push the rest of the world to use more and us to import it. If you want to reduce oil use, you want high prices.
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  29.  @Dman6779 I'm going to start by saying Ukrainian bombing of Russian refineries doesn't really impact US oil prices, Biden is more concerned about the appearance as he goes into an election, and of trying to lower global inflation and global oil prices, both to lower the cost of imports and bring supply chain inflation down, and to maintain European support. To your TL;DR, I agree completely, losing energy security is exactly what I'm afraid of, I don't want a crash in prices destroying the North American Oil industries and making us reliant on imports of both oil and Chinese renewables. oil has a massive effect on the economy because it fuels cars and transport, Petro chemicals in the North East and Gulf coast, is a major part of the economy in the South west, and represents 15% of US exports and is a major component to the balance of trade. In Canada it's not only 15% of exports, Alberta is also the region with the highest per capita incomes, and many of those jobs are oil sands related. Our progressive tax system will mean that a very large drop in income tax revenue is at stake, along with a large portion of Albertas government royalties, and Federal revenue for oil. Oil sands mining, where a lot of the good blue collar jobs are focused, is a very regional affair focused in fort McMurray, and those Mining jobs won't survive a year of low prices. So you're looking at a sizable city in complete collapse, a provincial depression as 10s of thousands of the provinces highest earners going on Unemployment and oil taxes disappear, and a national depression as a dollar weaken with our balance of trade, banks (particularly RBC) see massive losses, our precarious property market dies, and our Stock market crashes. But I see what you are saying, and I would like to see a smart wind down of the oil industry toward geothermal (Eavor is a promising company) with fracking and SAGD oil sands in particular being technologies well suited to have investment redirected to digging wells and pumping hot fluid. I'm Canadian, and I really want to see more material manufacturering with bitumen production to diversify the oil sands industry itself. Bitumen has an advantage in producing Carbon Fiber, and I would like to see Alberta become a major producer on the global market. I'd also like to see the NG industry refocus toward hydrogen production, although generally I support the LNG operations in the US Gulf (although Canadian LNG is largely DOA). And of course greater diversity of industry in general in building solar and wind and EVs, and in Canada in particular Mining material for supply chains. But that doesn't just happen. It certainly doesn't happen if the industry collapses and government revenues collapse. You need to develop technologies, build infrastructure, attact or invest in manufacturing. I think this is very urgent, but the times lines to open a mine are still a decade. And China isn't cutting its oil demand because it's worried about climate change, it's trying to beat us in a race that will decide where energy comes from. I'd also like to see a Pipeline Called eagle spirit built to bring another Mbbl/d to the Pacific, although I'm against DilBit exports on the North coast, but I'd like to see a large 100kbbl/d asphalt plant, a 200kbbl/d Diesel specific plant, a 300kbbl/d refinery tuned to Californian standards and that can supply Jet fuel to Vancouver, and a 400kbbl/d partial upgrade to sell a Heavy Syncrude to Asia/California. Which maybe you're not going to love, but right now 90% of our exports go to Chicago, and I'd like to see that getting a better price.
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  30. Unironically Biden is one of the best Presidents in History and certainly the best is Decades, and this is the main reason. Under his tenure the US has returned to an economic power. It's a shame the next president will get the credit for his national success while he takes the blame for Global issues.
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  31. When the new leaders name translates roughly to take back the Golan Heights, you have to wonder what will happen with isreal
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  32.  @kevChess  it's certainly more than "that difficult".
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  33.  @thanksskeletor4812  I'll need to confirm this
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  34.  @BlackWolf9988  But its not a new front line, by invading Kehrson Russia had already forced Ukraine to treat the entire border as avtive and deploy troops.
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  35. Since we're talking about Energy in Germany, I want to remind/explain to everyone that LNG from Canada was never an option for Germany. LNG has seen enormous growth, both on supply and demand, with Germany (and Europe, but most Germany) obviously needing alternatives to Russian gas in 2022. Regularly you hear that Canada (or the Trudeau government) refused to provide any., maybe for environmental reasons But look where supply comes from. Qatar, where the Gas feild is among the worlds cheapest and colocated with the export terminals. The US, where PNG comes from gas co-produced in the Permean basis in Texas, attached to the Gulf coast by an existing pipeline network, and in many cases repurposing LNG import terminals built before the Fracking boom. Canada was never going to build a cross continent pipeline with a from scratch export terminal on the east coast. It simply can't be done in the market. LNG prices before 2020 were break even low, ans while 2022 saw a massive price spike, low prices are already back. Germany and Europe never desired any long term contracts. They signed a few, but the US ones all allow cancellation, and signing some weakened the desire for any others, because they are betting on Hydrogen. Short of Canada using tax payer money to subsidize European consumers, or calling it NATO military spemding based on Energy security, this was never a real option.
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  36.  @herdimmunity2507  I would agree with both points; the propaganda available and direction they would prefer for Syria.
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  37. You didn't need the AI, and "Automation" was sufficient 100 years ago.
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  38.  @matanelsiboni9269  it wouldn't have been Iranian soil even if it was the embassy. That's not actually how most embassies work. Also, Iran doesn't recognize any of it as Israeli soil. This is all pretty meaningless. The point is Israel attacked Iranian assets, Iran responded with a broadly telegraphed show of power. Obviously no one felt this was a true attack against Israel, which is why the Israeli response was de-escalatory.
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  39.  @AL-lh2ht  My apologies, I don't think I understand you civil war comment.
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  40.  @2drealms196  I agree with all this. Again China certainly has issues. And as those prices come down I expect a technical recession and loss of wealth among the middle class. But a Great Depression level slow down is not something I expect
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  41. First?
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  42. ​ @moritamikamikara3879 South Africa had them so that white Minority government could threaten African countries from trying to invade in support of the black population. The invasion never came, but they only got rid of nukes when getting rid of the White government, so the transfer of power the nukes were meant to prevent did occur.
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  43. ​ @blue-pi2kt I disagree, it is the best available technology for energy transportation and for high temperature industrial processes.
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  44. The good news is South Australia has a large Green Hydrogen plant, Canada has several, built for Germany, being constructed on the East coast to export ammonia, and the US has 7 hydrogen Hubs being developed.
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  45.  @blue-pi2kt  it isn't abandoned in space flight? The SLS is Hydrogen fueled, if stupid overall. Japan has hydrogen rockets, the H3. China's largest rocket, the Long March 5 is hydrogen powered. Vulcan uses a hydrogen upper stage. Arianna rockets in Europe use Hydrogen. Skylon is designed to be hydrogen powered. I think you're literally just looking at SpaceX lol. And I'm not saying they aren't going to win the space race. But that has more to do with building a simple engine. And when we get to the moon hydrogen will be right back on the menu. You ship it as ammonia btw.
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  46. Na, Iran is pretty clearly trying to show power without actually getting involved in a conflict. They could have fired repeated waves or targeted population centers. Or not informed the US prior to the attack.
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  47.  @yidavv  ya but how many is that per day? 2,500 to 1,300?
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  48. This is true.
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  49.  @DBLt4p  I certainly agree that any blanket statement is never entirely true. And i would agree tariffs have a purpose, but I would suggest they are more valuable in a putative role than as economic policy. A tariff is equivalent to putting international sanctions on you're own country, they protect local industry by eliminating competition and lead to long term stagnation, and they invite foreign countries to put up tariffs in response. The Smoot Hawley tariffs were a key factor in causing both the great depression and the Pacific theater of WW2. Good industrial policy is based on building local value chains that create expertise and provide competitive advantage internationally. Look at Japan or Germany, you want your cars to win in other markets, not be protected in your own. Part of that is building infrastructure in a deliberate manner, and part is making policy that encourages industry to believe investment will be profitable. That's not to say all capital subsidies are best practices. You don't generally want to be picking particular projects, and things like corporate tax deductions don't generally align with real investment. Likewise blanket, fixed dollar tariffs are not as useful as percentage based tariffs on select goods with alternative suppliers and often which are important exports to the targetted country. Overall I would stand by the statement capital subsidies are better economic policy than tariffs, and do a better job at pulling international best practices and technology rather than encouraging the continuous use of older strategys and equipment that can't survive in global competition.
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  50.  @KathyXie  only the French in the north though. The French in the south were still just french collaborators /s
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