Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "Good Times Bad Times" channel.

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  20.  @WinterXR7   @winterinvicta   @winterinvicta  I agree that the political situation isn't likely to lead to a coup or force Putin out of the war, but it may lead to peace settlements with more reasonable terms from Ukrainian perspectives. A lot has occured there, while a small fraction of Russian land, until this point the only thing keeping Ukraine out was the prestige of Russia, that is a loss people feel, particularly with a hundred thousand refugees spreading word in the country. Conscripts are in the conflict and taken as POWs in camps Russia paints as Nazi adjacent, until now the core areas of Russia haven't been dealing with the actual conflict, now its visible. Inflation has been very high for some time, now Kursk farmers can't collect thier wheat harvest, and gasoline supplies are constantly at target, which are quite significant costs the lower income. All that is to say that until recently, what has been a foreign conflict in Russia has become a domestic one, which politically is very different. to the second point, the particular units in question are drone operaters I believe, so it doesn't suprise me they are less effective in urban combat. But they will slow the advance to the city, and protect the flanks while other infantry units perform the urban combat. The dightiin Bakhmut obviously was extensive. To the economy, as you point out the ruble is weak, but more over the Ukrainian campaign against oil infrastructure only started 6 months ago. Kursk wheat won't be available, but not only that, diesel is going to be a in competition between farmers and the military in a few weeks. Europe has only recently banned un insured ships from their waters, which is meant to push out black fleet ships from the Baltic sea, a major oil shipment terminal. Inflation has been rising, and is being pressed by both a shorage of goods, and army contracts bidding out the labour supply, an issue only worsening. And Russian foreign currency reserves are almost entirely depleted, with the oil fund now mainly holding infrastructure bonds. The Russian financial position has continually worsen, amd while I'm not suggesting an immediate collapse, I would say stalling several months due to mud is harder on Russia than Ukraine. Also, maybe you mean to claim the GDP PPP growth has been higher in Russia than Germany (which is, frankly, a terribly afflicted economy having taken the brunt of anti Russian economic fall out), but I struggle to believe numbers showing a higher standard of living in Russia than Germany. And I would point out that growth in Russian GDP is driven by defense sector spending, which is dubious in its value should the war come to an end. To your last point, I'd suggest the very thing Ukraine wants is a counter attack in Kursk. Images of Russia flattening Russian towns with Artillery and hundreds of conscripts out of Moscow and Saint Petersburg dying or being maimed daily, or else a weakening of Russian forces elsewhere, are both wins for Ukraine.
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