Comments by "R136a1" (@HR_8035_YEA) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Would be interesting to follow up on how the Philippines and Vietnam fit into this.
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  2. ​ @Sheckyize It's Russia that's done. And no-one can negotiate peace with Russia because they do not honour agreements.
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  3. ​ @anotheryoutubechannel4809 You just used Trump and truth in the same sentence. That's funny.
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  4. My experience is that Indians can't resist these kinds of temptations. Anything that will drop a few extra rupees in their pocket in the short-term, at the cost of the long-term, is irresistible to most of them. It's one of the main reasons India can never be a global economic power and can never be like China.
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  5.  @spelunkerd  China is no longer cost competitive like it was 10-20 years ago. I say that as an importer who has done business with the Chinese for years. Plus you have to factor in that a lot of Chinese made products have always been cheap junk that breaks almost as soon as you purchase it. Buying cheap Chinese goods is often false economy. Our business has been in the process of diversifying away from China for some time now. Many others are doing the same. The result will be the US becoming richer and China becoming poorer and less able to fund their military aspirations.
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  6. Excellent analysis. The USD will strengthen throughout this decade as US corporations reshore and boost America's economy.
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  7. He wouldn't have looked out of place in Monty Python's search for the holy grail.
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  8. ​ @aww7056 Let's see how much they love it when they lose their job. Because that will be the consequence of buying dumped Chinese goods.
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  9.  @michellelewis3063  Supporting Russia's war crimes and attempts to commit genocide in Ukraine is immoral. You need to go and have a long hard look in the mirror.
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  10.  @aww7056  No doubt that's true. But it comes with consequences. If you work in any industry where China is engaged in product dumping, your job is on the line. If China succeeds, your industry eventually collapses and then you are dependent on China for that product in the future.
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  11. He certainly doesn't mention it in this video. But I think it's common sense to understand that the US would lose almost all their influence in short order.
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  12.  @WorldWide-q8v  Ukraine didn't invade Russia. You're the one that needs to wake up.
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  13. Then buy shares in the company that makes them.
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  14. ​ @blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Don't you realise why that is? The Ukrainians have millions of men available under age 27 that have deliberately not been called up. At least they have options going forward.
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  15. ​ @alangaillard2988  Russia's war economy is looking more centrally planned by the day.
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  16. ​ AndrePepink Incredibly stupid comment. Putin himself stated that if not for the Lend Lease program Russia would have lost the war. As if you could possibly know better than Stalin.
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  17. There's an easy fix to the immigration issues if the respective governments have the courage to bite the bullet. Instead of importing labor and granting residency, just give 1-3 year work visas with no possibility of such a visa leading to permanent residency. This is done in the Middle East and other countries.
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  18. ​ @DK-ev9dg It would be stabilizing the Pacific. And it would be even better if France joined since they have a big stake in the Pacific.
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  19. A fairly significant amount of value add in lithium and rare earth minerals is in the development stage in Western Australia. I'd also add graphite to the list of critical minerals that Australia can supply for green tech. Several good projects are in the pipeline and Australian companies seem to have control of a large number of deposits in Tanzania and Malawi.
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  20. ​ @cmanlovespancakes Lend lease says otherwise. Left on their own, the Russians would be speaking German now.
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  21. He relies too much on Russian milbloggers as sources. So his analysis has that bias built into it.
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  22. And their alternatives to coal from Australia are Brazil and Africa, which both present the same logistical challenges that PZ just described regarding oil.
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  23. In fairness to PZ, he merely underestimated Trump's mendacity and the gullibility of the US electorate. Most people outside the US are flabbergasted that a convicted felon is now the President.
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  24. Towards fascism....
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  25. If you think they were unfair, provide some evidence. Otherwise you might as well be arguing for the existence of unicorns.
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  26. ​ @PranicEnergy Or invades it's neighbours like Tibet, Vietnam and India.
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  27. Please explain how you think NZ's fate is tied to Australia? As someone who has businesses in both countries I just don't see it. NZ has tied itself to China even more than Australia and it has severely damaged it's relationship with the US. NZ is on its own.
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  28. There's an easy fix to the immigration issues if the respective governments have the courage to bite the bullet. Instead of importing labor and granting residency, just give 1-3 year work visas with no possibility of such a visa leading to permanent residency. This is done in the Middle East and other countries.
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  29. By the same reasoning, do you think Trump should be in prison for his 34 felony convictions? Or does the law only matter when it applies to other people?
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  30. ​ @pedrososap  Russia is going to run out of weapons long before Ukraine runs out of manpower. Take tanks as just one example. They have already lost about 2500 and have only around 1500 left. At this rate they won't have the capacity to keep fighting effectively within a few months. We shouldn't underestimate Russia, but neither should we overestimate them.
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  31. Russia may be moving towards AZE, but they seem to be moving towards Turkiye. I recall watching a video of street interviews with AZE people a few months back and asked who they prefer between Russia and the EU, a few said the EU. None said Russia. But the vast majority of them stated they wanted to be part of a Turkic block led by Turkiye. Is Turkish influence going to rise as a result of the latest events rather than Russia's? I ask as I don't claim any expertise on this subject.
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  32. ​ @mayankkumar6255 Countries do make sovereign decisions and the populace in the member states support being a part of the EU. You don't have a say in it.
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  33. Fantastic analysis again. Recently I watched a video from Azerbaijan in which the interviewer asked random people in Baku if they would be in favour of joining NATO. A few said no. More said yes. But the majority stated they would prefer to join a Turkic security block led by Turkiye. Things are going to get very interesting at the first hint of Russian defeat in Ukraine.
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  34.  @FunkyFunky7345  That's what they said about the USSR. Where are they now?
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  35.  @chriswhite318  In the event of Russia attacking a NATO member, Finland will do what's required.
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  36. They would have to be very confident of a swift victory. In Ukraine the Dnipro River is proving difficult for both sides to cross. I think China would discover the Taiwan Strait to be far more difficult.
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  37. He said it was untenable. Did you not understand?
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  38. ​ @hyhhy  That would be the country that's had hundreds of nuclear weapons pointed at the US for decades. See if you can figure it out.
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  39. Facts are decided by courts and juries all the time. Do you have an issue with them being arbiters of truth?
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  40. ​ @J_S209 Lithium and rare earth elements processing is already happening in Australia and expanding rapidly. Things are changing fast.
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  41. If one of these oil ships does indeed sink, how will the shipping company and the countries affected by the oil spill get the insurance payout? It will be under Russian jurisdiction I presume. So even if the Russian insurer has a trillion dollars, I don't think that eliminates a key part of the risk. Russia is the primary risk and it is a rogue state now. They do not adhere to any international laws or conventions that they don't wish to. My bet is no-one would ever get an insurance payout. How could port authorities allow a ship to dock with that sort of risk.
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  42. It may be abundant, but there are few deposits worldwide that are large enough and have a grade high enough to be economically viable to become a mine. And it take many years to discover such a deposit and build a mine. There is indeed a shortage of lithium and it is going to grow over the next few years. The price of lithium carbonate and hydroxide has increased nearly 1000% for good reasons.
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  43. Yes. And all the while being completely oblivious to their own TFS.
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  44. You're right. The power vacuum that a US withdrawal would leave is enormous and would be filled quickly.
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  45. It would be irrelevant. You have a new administration and it's up to them. Deflection is pointless.
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  46. ​ @bilic8094 False equivalence by you again. The territory that Azerbaijan took back recently was occupied by Armenia. The new corridor that Azerbaijan seeks could be negotiated rather than requiring the use of force. Give up on Kosovo already. It has a an independent country. Serbia was a part of the Ottoman Empire for 5-6 centuries. It has no claim to anything.
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  47. Well it's not nearly as appalling as TFS (Trump fellatio syndrome) that the magabillies are suffering from.
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  48. We did not kill 500,000 civilians. That is a ridiculous assertion.
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  49. ​ @kthmalloy16 Who forced Russia to invade Ukraine? How did they do it? Ukraine is no-ones pawn. They are fighting for their survival. Your comment is an insult to their people.
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  50.  @touger9759  No counterargument? Just a very unoriginal insult? What does that say about you?
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