Comments by "DrScopeify" (@drscopeify) on "CNBC Television" channel.

  1. No, the USA has reduced buying oil from Saudi Arabia as the USA is oil independent the USA now produced more oil than Saudi's so it is perfectly logical that the Saudis are also selling oil in other currencies this has no impact on the Dollar or the USA. You can go and fill your face with nonsense but in a year from now when the Dollar is the same level you will look like a clown.
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  2.  @twesj  We are not buying oil from Russia
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  3. What happens in October? OOOH Oktoberfest right it's all the beer. got it :)
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  4. I have a suspicion that the people, or hedge funds that were so HIGHLY leveraged in the carry trade where 0.25% caused them to panic sell did not just get out totally but simply adjusted to a lower leverage. What is my proof???? The Dollar did not SHOOT UP, if they sold OUT of Japan JPY and sent the cash back to the USA in the form of Dollars to be re-invested here in the USA, the Dollar VS Yen would shoot way up but it did the opposite, Dollar went DOWN Vs Yen = the Carry trade (I THINK) did NOT unwind it simply was re-allocated, maybe to a lower leverage position that is not at risk from the 0.25% but what happens if BOJ hikes to 0.5%?????
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  5. No the FED is in QT meaning that they are selling or rather letting the bonds they own expire and not renew.
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  6.  @akashgarg9776  Yep the FED is looking at the real economy not Wall Street, it's funny how one is so much inside a box they cannot see out of it :)
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  7.  @eidrahhtarts4102  Yes it would have naturally been this way during COVID but it was supported by policy so now it needs a correction, I guess it's better to shift bad economic troubles to after COVID rather than during COVID but as a result it denied people that saved money from scoring good deals during COVID but it is what it is, so they say.
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  8. Yeah and also look at all the cash people moved from Savings and stocks in to CDs and Treasuries that cash will be on the move at some point when and if rates come down
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  9. SCAM
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  10. Feb to Aug is SUPER misleading data as that is showing seasonal price changes. Even in 2009 and 2010 prices went up even then for that time period of the year.... Feb 2009 147.61800 Aug 2009 150.66900. 2010: Feb 143.05300 Aug: 146.43100
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  11.  @ssuwandi3240  100% I agree with you but the one thing is that when Ronald Regan set up this import model, he realized that when we import goods it means that when we pay for stuff that money goes to other countries = trade deficit which means we are constantly losing inflation as money is sent out of the country to buy goods. So the inflation is sent to Europe, China, Japan, Mexico, its just exported out. So if we reduce imports due to Tariffs = we will have higher inflation not just becasue American made goods cost more but becasue the money will be stuck inside our country so less debt which is a good thing but I assume GDP will stagnate. So a bit iffy model.
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  12.  @ssuwandi3240  SO what his actions still impact us all today
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  13. I had built an office shed on my property, great view of a valley way below, deep forests, why have to pay for something you can build yourself? If a person lives in an apartment OK i get it but how many people living in apartments are also working remote? Usually apartment living is a sacrifice to live near a place of work right? So seems a bit odd to me, maybe during COVID OK but that's over with.
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  14. Yeah I can see that potential. The first Bitcoin bubble low was like 2-3k the second one was 6-7k so yeah.
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  15.  @mickrileybcn  Shut up.
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  16. Not true. There was no massive inflation spike, there was not injection of 6 trillion and most people housing is locked in with crazy low rates that I highly doubt we will ever see again so no incentive to sell
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  17. it's not deflation it's reduction of the rate of inflation, the FED calls it disinflation. Deflation in the US is not rally possible since we don't produce enough goods to suffer from over supply and if it did happen it would be short term for a few months, we did get that for a few months during early COVID when you saw farmers dumping potatoes in to pits in the ground or giving away for free and that was due to restaurants shutting down and farmers that had contracts with restaurant supply chains had food grown with no buyers same for oil as people stayed home there was over-supply of oil and wholesale prices went negative but that was a short period of time and only impact a small part of the economy, now if trade between the west and China were to come to a stop in the event China invades Taiwan, then you will see what deflation really means as China suffer catastrophic over supply as goods flood the markets in China with no foreign exports, oh boy.
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  18. @@ronjones8696 The US Govnemrent has like 7 trillion cash but it is invested by buying US debt, it's own debt, but it is actually positive cash. You can research this it is called Inter-Governmental debt and the US Treasury department has all the numbers listed on their website. The US Govnemrent still has 33 trillion debt but 7 of that is owed to itself so just a way to store money. The FED owns another 6 trillion so when you remove both the real actual debt is 20 trillion which is still way too much but not as bad as Media make it out to be.
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  19. SCAM
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  20. In the Americas the demand is limited it is like a luxury car so like Mercedes, can they sell cars in the Americas? For sure but there is a limited customer base. Right now in 2024 the US total cars on the road are 2% EV and in China it is around 2.6% so pretty similar we will see how this changes over the next 20 years. I assume some US states might ban ICE and in China some cities night ban ICE too but we will see how that works out.
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  21. Well, OK so you must know better, what is your view of where things are going?
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  22. The thing is that Banks want what??? More customers. So they send out what I call the "WOLF" to chase the chickens in to the safety of the bank. Allot of retail investors sold out when the Japan carry trade thing cooked off and now here they show up to get some of that sweet sweet cash sitting outside of the market. Well that is my theory anyway.
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  23. Dont forget that Trump printed 2 trillion Dollars and then Biden another 2 or 3 trillion both are pretty crap leaders spent too much cash
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  24. At least the Dollar is backed by every single American going to work every day, Bitcoin is backed by faith in others not to sell.
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  25.  @tomzeitler5648  That's becasue people demand higher wages, since the baby boomers and their parents promised a better life after WW2 so sent their kids to university, and this lead to a lack of Blue collar workers and so factory workers seeing huge BOOM in demand for goods with the rising baby boomer population demanded higher pay = MASSIVE protests, union strikes in 1970s and 1980s leading to outsourcing to Asia. Well first it was Italy and Japan and now China and in the future India and Africa, the thing is Americans always want better, more, less work, more money. It is not that the Dollar is falling, against other currencies it is pretty strong right now, decades high against the YEN and Euro. So what is going on? It is wages. Why is it so expensive for you to fix your car? Its not the parts made in China its the labor, the manhours are a fooookin fortune. How do you fix this? We need more Americans, more immigrations more children, more babies. This country has room for easily 1 billion people like China but we only have like 330 million so yeah we need lots and lots and lots of people then labor will be cheap and prices will fall. It s a mistake to think inflation is the problem, the USA has had 12 years of low inflation from 2008 to 2020 forcing the FED to buy bonds and provide QE. What we need is more people in this country to reduce the cost of manpower. That's the freaking root of the problem. Americans are getting older not younger = less people working. Old people in their 50s are not going to fix your car for cheap you need young kids in their 20s and 30s but take your car in to a garage what do you see? OLD GUYS. That's the problem.
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  26. SCAM
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  27. I knew this was coming, the FED wants a 2 year period of slow rate cuts as shown in the dot plot so they can keep control over inflation but in order to pull that off you need some inflation left in the system to cushion to slow way down, you can't reach 2% and after that a 2 year slow period of rate cuts that's not going to work so you need more inflation to begin the rate cut part of the cycle. Keep in mind over the next 2 months we will erase peak inflation months in YoY data June and July 2022.
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  28. Dont forget that Trump printed 2 trillion Dollars and then Biden another 2 or 3 trillion both are pretty crap leaders spent too much cash
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  29. ​ @MuricaFyea  LMAO wtf bro? So funny
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  30. This guy throws around the word Capitalism as an excuse for his own problems and company issues, very poor tactic. In the USA the fish that fight the current swim if you drown its all on you, but don't blame others or the system for your own failings.
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  31. SCAM
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  32.  @JamesSmith-ix5jd  Oh don't be foolish Russia Authorities report this information the refinery output form Russia has fallen to 1 year low. You can find it in the media I am sure, it is official from Russian authorities.
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  33. No you cant cut defense when China is rising and Russia has become imperialist and defense is spending in the US economy it is jobs, technology, innovation, this is not thin air it leads to growth and GDP. Just go to Salt Lake city and see all of the military tech companies they all depends on this money to innovate and keep the USA #1 in the world. If you cut you will get less of everything. The best is to grow the economy = more taxes by nature
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  34.  @palmettoblizzard2694  Well the USA debt is not what meets the eye, the US Government itself owns 7 trillion of its own debt which is actually positive cash so the USA has 7 trillion cash that is invested in to buying and holding it's own debt. The FED has another 4.7 trillion and the US Government gets the interest handed back over like all central banks do that, this is how Japan is able to have 240% debt to GDP becasue the central bank owns that debt which the interest is handed back to the Government. The USA is the same. So if you add the 7 + 4 trillion = 11 trillion is interest free or internal 34 -11 = 23 trillion of actual debt that is outside of the US government which is below the GDP like 84% debt to GDP. It is high but not that bad. The USA will probably have to raise taxes in the future to get that even lower back to like 70% would be a good place.
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  35. ​ @palmettoblizzard2694  Don't fool yourself it is not a Ponzi. As long as you live in a county with a Government they have the power to make laws and the first law is the creation of money. Even going back 10,000 years there has always been government by the demand of the citizens in the lands and as such there has always been money and where there was no Government like the Germanic tribes during the Roman period, they wanted to do business with Rome so they used Roman money. The power of authority and trade ensures that money is not a ponzi and is real. If Roman money was in use for around 800 years and guess what? If you find a Roman coin you can sell it on eBay for MORE than it was worth back in it's time so even today 2,000 years later Roman money is still real. Where is the Ponzi? There isn't one. It's not a Ponzi. Even when a country's money is hyper inflated like Germany after WW1, guess what? they went on to fight another world war soon after and after losing that war too, they are today the #3 largest economy in the world so all that Ponzi talk, fear of crashes and war and hyper inflation? It is all meaningless in the long run, life always moves on and the economy always keeps on beating. Betting against money, authority and Government is a losing battle especially not in the length of time of a human life
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  36. No he is right, if you want cheap food then let the immigrants in. People have this false reality in their heads that food magically is grown and picked by machines or something but no, food is picked one at a time by 2 hands. Just drive by any farms in California and they are up the ladders piece of piece, tree by tree, field by field, working their nu-ts off for us all. They are paid pennies on the dollar too and live in shared rooms. You want cheap food then let the immigrants in, they are coming here on their own free will to make money, let them do so. Otherwise you will need to have prices rise enough on food where farmers can afford to pay non-immigrants high pay and lazy work ethics and dont be surprised when an apple is $10.
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  37.  @alexsoccer1196  Except that he is right about food prices and immigration, if you want cheap food then let them in. Why are you blocking farmers from access to cheap labor? Maybe you think that the food you buy is magically grown, picket and transported to the store but no, it takes a person with 2 hands to yank out of the ground you food, every freaking item you buy is picked by a human, so you need cheap labor or else you will see food prices explode like never in history. It's not just that non immigrants want holidays off, weekends off, high pay, but they are lazy too, you pay an America to pick fruit the guy will be on his phone 50% of the time and work slowly and lazy. The guys coming over are DESPERARTE for money to send back home to their family, they are willing to risk death to come here so they work hard very hard and for cheap so you can buy food cheaply in return.
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  38. SCAM
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  39.  @theunbearablebull  Well from 9% per year inflation down to 3% per year is not for nothing. 2/3 reduction in inflation but the more you fight and pressure to get that 2% magic number the more you risk the whole cake falling on the floor. Do you risk it all but 1% more? It's a gamble at that point. The thing is that 3% inflation also means higher rates for long term future which is good, less easy money, less rise in price of homes, maybe.
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  40. The issue of Taiwan was there for 60 years this is nothing new. The breakdown in relations is due to the Communist Party reasserting it's domination over China. Just look at the Communist symbols all over China, the red banner messages from the Communist Party all over China, this was not the way it was even 7 years ago. This is a change in direction inside of China and the USA sees a threat from this activity and 100% is legitimate threat. China is now under the hammer of the Communist Party, after many decades of openness the door in China is closing and this is due to the decisions of Xi Jinping as it was not like this before him.
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  41. Well the Dollar at least against other currencies has gotten stronger over the last 10 years just look at the Yen to Dollar
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  42. BRICS LOL thats a good joke man, South Africa is a failed country, Brazil has been without growth in a decade, China and India almost at war and you think they will share the same currency?? that is a good joke. Russia? Is isolated and under sanctions and even BRICS or BICS are only taking advantage and buying cheap oil/gas from Russia.
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  43. This might be a problem, Usually in a rate hike cycle you have a recession once rates peak for a few months, leading to falling Dollar which grows US Exports dramatically and that lifts up GDP out of a recession - but if there is no landing and no recession then the USA is stuck with high Dollar and depressed exports. I am not sure how that plays out. It won't be the first time in history for sure it has happened before in the US but the playing field is not the same as in the past. I guess exports of LNG and Military defense and some other sectors like software and tech items might not be impacted too much but I guess time will tell.
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  44. GDPNOW is showing Q3 GDP at 5.9% that is NUTS way too high its one of the highest in the world Are we a developing country now?
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  45. I see his point. If you go on Monday morning and buy GME, is it a gamble or an investment?
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  46. CORE is mostly housing which is always delayed by like 12-18 months as house prices move slowly. The FED looks at CORE becasue it lowers the factor of things like food which can be impacted by nature like the bad winter in California is not good for prices but that has nothing to do with inflation, not easy making decisions when you data is never really good but I guess they try their best.
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  47. ​ @itseveryday8600  Well Housing is 42% of CORE CPI so there are many categories but housing is almost half of the total weight of CORE CPI and on top of that some of the other categories are negative so they are pulling down the total rate at least for now
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  48. Well Americans cooperated with the FED for 1 year but eventually that will end. The UK has the saying stay calm and carry on but that is about people in the UK being very obedient of their government and here that is pretty rare that people do what the Govnemrent tells them to do but they listened to the FED for over a year now which I think is very impressive. But for how much longer that will last? that is the question
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  49. Well the FED rate was 5.5% and inflation finally fell to 2.5% so between the 2 numbers there is a gap of 3%, that is MASSIVE. As inflation falls the FED needs to cut the rate. They should have already cut months ago but they wanted to be sure inflation was going to 2% goal. Now with the cut, the gap is between 5% rate and 2.5% inflation so it is 2.5% gap. That is still HUGE. Massive pressure on the economy. The problem is that as inflation falls, companies can no longer raise prices anymore and have to cut prices now, but as the cost of taking on loans is 5% that is expensive for them, so companies can't take loans, can't lower prices...... soooooo what do they do???? Cut down on things that really harm the country like PEOPLE. Yeah..... so FED hast o cut more. ALLOT MORE!!!!! We really should be at 4% FED rate right now, that's 1.5% above the 2.5% inflation rate.
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  50. It's important to communicate, to avoid surprising the public, if you shock the public you might get results you do not expect. The FED does not want the American people doing anything different than taking on a bit more loans and creating more economic actvitiy, the risk here is that Americans think major rate cuts come and stop buying and wait, that can totally mess up the economy.
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