Comments by "hugh mungus" (@hughmungus2760) on "Whatifalthist" channel.

  1.  @rickjames18  it doesn't matter, MAD is no longer a threat if one side is already going to collapse. For the leadership of either Russia or china a quick nuclear exchange with the US is preferable to decades of civil war and being colonised by the west. Its the same mentality as someone who goes on to commit a mass shooting. Usually they've hit rock bottom and have nothing to lose.
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  2.  @icarus387  if hollywood keeps putting out woke garbage, that soft power is going to fade pretty damn quickly
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  3.  @KiDCRuDi_  2024 will probably be the last gasp of the current pro-immigration neoliberal leadership. after that both sides of the isle are for reduced immigration both for domestic social stability and wages
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  4. thats the most level headed take of the situation anyone has made on this channel. Too many racists here genuinely think that all of china's achievements for the past 50 years are 'communist propoganda' and that chinese are just incapable of being competent.
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  5.  @thevoid5503  Well in this case it really is just a housing bubble finally allowed to burst. The banks in china are backed by the central bank so the risk of major bank runs is minimal and basically nobody owns stocks so what happens in the stock market affects very few people.
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  6. I dont think an american empire would be tolerated by the world. too many nuclear powers and if the US became genuinely imperialist, nuclear weapons proliferation will stop the US in its tracks.
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  7. An overlooked factor is that the 'left' has diplomatic tools to call upon. NATO could be brought in to quell the rightwing rebellion
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  8. 3 Things Zeihan never addresses The effects of automation/AI on an aging society. The effects of nuclear war The effects of long term ethnic demographic shifts. Quite honestly Zeihan is just telling bedtime stories for neocons.
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  9.  @shorewall  all the same no one will die in a revolution to overthrow the party. The party might collapse through burocratic means where it basically just stops pretending to be communist anymore. But thats not going to result in the kind of violence this video is predicting.
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  10. I think demographic decline is Grossly exaggerated, especially in the case of china which really isn't short on people. Access to energy, Automation and vertical integration largely determines prices for day to day goods, cheap labour is no longer the primary driver for economic growth. The idea that china, with 1.4 billion people are actually going to run out of men is quite ridiculous.
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  11.  @shrayesraman5192  One mechatronics engineer or AI software developer can contribute 10x more to the economy than a sweatshop labourer who's going into retirement. The fact of the matter is the future chinese workforce does not need nearly as many people in labour intensive jobs because of automation. The elderly in china also have mountains of savings to fall back on unlike the west which have an abysmal savings rate.
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  12.  @dm-rj2zg  all a high dependency ratio would mean is a larger portion of the service sector dedicated to aged care and old age related services. Quite frankly modern industry has become so efficient that it has made the vast majority of manpower obsolete and would actually result in unemployment if it weren't for something like a shrinking population to soak up the excess. This is why, you can make $60,000 a year in an auto plant in the US but 18-19 yearolds can't get their first job.
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  13.  @Prometheus7272  I dont think china will lose its ability to take taiwan as long as it has a functional nuclear arsenal and a proper navy. People don't pay enough attention to the fact that taiwan is hopelessly dependent on imports and a blockade will force a surrender. The only way this fails is if the US comes around to sink the entire chinese navy and destroy the entire chinese airforce, which won't happen if china has credible nuclear deterance.
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  14.  @Prometheus7272  by the time china is good and ready to take taiwan it will likely have 1000+ nukes which is ample for ending the world. Right now china is already expanding its delivery systems and second strike capability.
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  15.  @colinmarshall6634  all this talk about revolution comes from the kind of people who'd flee to another country the moment stuff starts falling apart in theirs. The only people who would actually fight in your hypothetical revolution would be those that are so brainwashed that they think they might actually get their 72 virgins. if they survive.
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  16.  @georgelyddane8283  Pick a team. Oceana or East Asia. you'll be living under one totalitarian system or another.
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  17.  @georgelyddane8283  Im making a 1984 reference
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  18.  @gideonmele1556  they're not revolutionary thats for sure. I fail to see how a bunch of people deciding to opt out of the rat race and dont care about politics is a threat to the rule of the party.
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  19. Its like china perfectly fits the Strauss generational theory nearly perfectly
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  20.  @NotANameist  air and naval power is determined largely by availability of missiles and precision guided bombs. The US can maybe produce a few hundred cruise missiles a year with existing infrastructure. They will expend that many in a single bomber raid.
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  21. the 'communist' regime in china is only a label, they're very similiar in many ways to the current japanese government in that its a conservative, nationalist, quasi-fascist oligarchy where the elites inherit their power and pay lip service to marxist dogma. the only thing that might change is that they get rid of the communist label and just adopt a more purely nationalist one. but nothing else would be fundamentally different.
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  22.  @rustyshacklford245  go look up battleorder's breakdown of the modern chinese infantry unit. They're not the peasants you fought in korea and actually carry pretty serious hardware now.
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  23. no. a million other alternatives would come before that. Be it an autocratic state that mandates women to breed, or the collapse of the welfare state in western societies (which enables women to behave the way they do), to radical conservatives taking power and rolling back women's rights like you see in the Islamic and Orthodox world. People are generally averse to dying senselessly.
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  24.  @godsamongstmen4164  same reason why the US never built high speed rail. It makes no economic sense so investors don't do it.
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  25. rather radical is an understatement. Everyone in china is acutely aware the US is trying to destroy china, all this china collapse crap is predominantly coming from the US and No self respecting chinese person would buy into this FUD, Especially given the track record. He's dead wrong about a lack of ideology in china btw. The ideology of chinese nationalism is fierce today.
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  26.  @Illumirage  china will not be an american colony. We saw what you did to Japan and Russia in the 80s and 90s. It was attemped in 1989 during the Tienamen uprising and its still on the backburner for american geostrategists today. The fact that this guy is parroting outlandish claims about an imminent chinese collapse is part of the ongoing propoganda war waged on us for the past 30 years.
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  27.  @Illumirage  not in the traditional sense no, but attempting a colour revolution and putting in a puppet goverment. Thats basically what the US does to any country it can.
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  28.  @Illumirage  neither Russia nor Japan ever realistically could have toppled the US economy, Especially Russia post soviet collapse. Yet the US still did what it did to them. China is 4x the size of the US and no self respecting chinese person would ever be content with forever being 1/4 as wealthy as americans just because the US is an insecure hegemon. We know full well the US seeks to suppress china's rise, what with the tech blockades, smear campaigns and the non stop collapse narrative.
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  29. seriously this guy is lucky most chinese people are content to use chinese social media. Otherwise he'd get torn apart.
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  30. Sorry but the 1950s were an anomaly in US history. All of the US' industrialised competators were reeling from WW2 and the US had a near monopoly on manufactured goods. It was never going to last, once the developed world rebuilt and the developing world started to industrialise, The US was no longer the indispensable nation. I say the US did amazingly well even in the 80s by shrewdly cutting deals with China to basically underwrite the US economy with its labour capital with which it beat the USSR in the cold war. But now this faustian bargain has come to its conclusion.
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  31. Drag is a thing. Balloons and the elevator itself would be highly susceptible to weather conditions would subject the elevator to too much mechanical strain
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  32. Great so your prediction boils down to the west, if not the entire world breaks down and we all live under the equivalent of the Taliban. Ever wonder why people give you sh!t about your takes?
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  33. no it'd be quite boring, because old people don't riot or revolt. they have too much vested in the system.
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  34. or 3: Taiwan/US crosses china's red lines regarding taiwan independence / nuclear weapons in taiwan.
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  35. china's military official military doctrine is 'systems destruction' aka. destroying the opponents ability to wage war. Which mean, china will be targetting alot of taiwanese infrastructure and civilian assets to make taiwan stop functioning as a country. The total collapse of society on taiwan would make it impossible for it to wage war.
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  36. ukraine's advantage is its size and number of redundant systems. Taiwan is too densely packed that china could hit the handful of power stations repeatedly to keep them offline.
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  37.  @TroubledTrooper  Chinese ships are never the threat. All the real threat comes from land based rocket artillery and standoff weapons launched by chinese bombers. SAMs run out surprisingly quickly to waves and waves of missile/suicide drone attacks. Taiwan's entire arsenal can be drained in a matter of days if they intend to keep their infrastructure intact.
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  38. Enough lying about your age. I estimate you to be at least in your late 20s based on the fact you sounded like an adult in your videos from 8 years ago. If you want people to take you seriously you gotta stop just flatout lying.
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  39. thats a bad prediction. The people lined up to replace Putin are for the most part even more hawkish, some of whom openly want to use nuclear weapons in ukraine. China isn't much better. The CCP would lose legitimacy if it simply gave up on taiwan so whoever replaces Xi would not stop until taiwan has either surrendered or is an uninhabitable mass grave.
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  40. Seriously? A few isolated incidents of lockdown induced food shortages and you come the the conclusion china is going to balkanise? Thats like saying every mass shooting in the US is the beginning of another american civil war.
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  41.  @paulfri1569  Kraut is chinese lol wut?
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  42. he made that crap up. do not have chinese women shouting about overthrowing the patriarchy or tearing down national icons/heroes over percieved misogyny and chinese media is the opposite of woke.
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  43.  @Paradox1012  dont let logical contraditions get in the way of a narrative eh?
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  44.  @Paradox1012  I've never heard of any state institution refusing to hire women (specifically) over 30. Its a dating phenomenon where society sees women over 30 as less desirable. Private companies not wanting to hire women in general is because they don't want to pay for maternity leave, but thats not a government problem, thats a social problem.
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  45. uhhh nope. its just austerity economics. The CCP knows that unlike the west, it can't just rack up unsustainable debt and let the next guy worry about it. So its allowing bad companies to default which is causing deflation. This is what the US Should have done in 2008 but instead they pumped trillions into wallstreet.
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  46. A working fusion reactor or the ability to synthesis food from non-biotic sources would fundamentally shift the balance of power into china's side. Now china won't be constrained for energy or land.
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  47. That was back in 2010 lol.
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  48. keep in mind this was a time before anyone understood the idea of nuclear winter. China at the time was also highly rural meaning you couldn't realistically nuke every square inch of it so the majority of the population was expected to survive.
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  49.  @therearenoshortcuts9868  Or it becomes the new trend that people never really retire and work to the grave. Which is what people in the west have to look forwards to this generation
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  50.  @therearenoshortcuts9868  Unfortunately yes. You are already seeing an disturbing number of ex-retirees re-entering the workforce working low end service jobs in the US because their pensions can't keep a roof over their heads. And with the era of easy money coming to an end, pension funds are even more screwed. This is going to be a global norm. We will also see the return of the trend of elderly parents moving in with their kids or kids never actually moving out and instead living in multi-generational homes.
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