Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Military Summary" channel.

  1.  @daffyduck780  The main purpose of the war from Russian perspective is to force Ukraine not to join NATO and to have US bases etc. on its territory. This task is not yet finished but Russia went to war over this and this alone (despite some territorial shenanigans). When you look at pre-war negotiations you can clearly see that. Sweden and Finland were unofficially part of NATO since early 90s so no change there. They also could have had US bases on their territory since then and did not chose to have any. Situation from Moscow perspective did not change - you can see that Russia is totally not interested / scared / caring about their formal addition to NATO as they are not seen as any threat.
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  2. This war is very porous - so some cauldrons can be drained by people simply running away in small groups. We probably only see mass surrender in Severdoneck - as its a city. But the other ones probably not - scared semi fit soldiers can run for 10km plus non stop - or should be able to - and that is well enough to reach friendly lines. But all heavy equipment is lost.
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  3. Yep Ukrainians will need to push Russians at any cost. Russians know this, Ukrainians know this. Excellent time to inflict massive casualties.
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  4. 300k is a lot of people but they can always do 2nd wave, 3rd wave etc.
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  5. Bottom line is that Ukraine is no longer able to attack Russian lines. They more or less quit. So either conflict will freeze or its time for Russia to start its offensive operations.
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  6. Not true, we saw some destroyed UA BMP-2s today. West sent 100s of IFV, but just around a 100 western tanks. So you see far more IFVs as few times more were delivered.
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  7. Nope. Empty. The 8b was already legislated so nothing new.
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  8. The guy on this channel has been saying for over a week that there is LOTS of armor in the area.
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  9.  @marionschrotter7065  Maybe - but a drone is disposable item - Toyota is not - cars last years - even decades. It may be just a design issue not really related to temperature or just plain lies from Ukraine - i.e. there is no issue.
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  10. Its not good for Ukraine when their elite force is made up of... non Ukrainian volunteer Nazi light infantry. There is LOTS of info online how these troops are used as cannon meat - so Russian claim of grinding them down seem legit. I still think sacrificing these pp for PR - as Ukraine has been doing is stupid - you are not going to get them back & numbers of foreign volunteers are dropping quickly. No one exactly wants to go and be fed to the artillery.
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  11. It is very hard to say what is going on. Ukraine made some very modest gains at apparently heavy losses. What will Russia do? They need to finally use some of that air power and some of these helicopters to reduce Ukrainians. If UA is indeed pulling out all reserves from all over the place - now is the time to strike back.
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  12.  @Kanawanu  You over estimate, say 150 are killed and 450 are wounded, at most, per day in whole Bakhmut front line. This is huge loss for Ukraine - most wounded do not come back to the fight - these are not wounded with paper cut - these are some serious cases. So Ukraine is loosing 150+250 per day -- 400 troops in just one front line. Over 100 days that works out to 40k troops. That is shit load of people. Over course of a year we are talking 160k (!) This is why I said if this goes on for 4 or 5 years even with recruitment of women, children and elderly Ukraine is toast on military level. Of course the fact that everyone except the elderly left the country now is not lost on Russians...
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  13.  @ZeugGezeugt  I doubt Kherson will rise up - they did not in over 3 months. Only very. very limited resistance. Russians simply let all pro Ukrainians leave. So now its like 80% for Russia.
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  14. Destroy the bridges - UA will blow them up themselves if Russians are close.
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  15.  @derikuk2967  Nah, don't see this at all - Poles are against joining this war rather virulently.
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  16. Its panic for civilians and maybe militia. As for Russians they are moving in reinforcements and even reinforcing with VDV troops key areas. If it was hopeless they would retreat beyond the river.
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  17.  @albertolira666  Well if it was your house all along I guess I return it!
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  18. Seriously, shovels, now umbrellas?
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  19.  @banshee8989  Well, so they would be some casualties and it may be a wasteland. Rebuild.
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  20.  @bozo5632  Even if they did it would be very temporary - like a day or two. It feels like they are doing it for show purposes only - same as the "offensive".
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  21.  @timknight2834  It has plenty of allies. What do you think Ukraine has allies? Like whom? Except maybe Poland, who is their allay? As soon as war with Russia is gone they have no allies.
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  22.  @ruigomes1098  Well, we see whatever west can do this forever, especially when their economies go into recession.
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  23. Who? Zielinski? Also fall of the Soviet Union was inevitable - even Putin himself did not want to help east when they asked for help - I think what he meant was Russian influence.
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  24. No one really knows what did happen. There was a 24h insurrection. Or it appears there was. All very strange. Very strange.
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  25. Will France surrender together with Ukraine? 😅
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  26. No, which is about half of the territory - i.e. Ukraine captured about as much land as Russia did in January. Which is next to nothing. War is total attrition as WWI.
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  27. Russian info is correct BUT does not imply they captured the whole town ----> i.e. they inflicted heavy losses on attacking side. But that does not mean they gained ground - they just defeated the attack. Heck, they could have lost some ground (but not as much as claimed). Also 90% may be a bit of a hyperbola - I think more like 50%. Still catastrophic.
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  28. 11:30 its not freezing the enemy - its fixing it.
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  29. You do know Russian economy is the strongest in Europe. With growth 3x that of Germany. And biggest. With biggest growth cumulative over last 15 years. And that is despite sanctions!!!
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  30.  @bdd2195  Why would they ship... from black sea? Receiving countries already accept their own insurance. There are no issues. Shipments are already signed up for - spot prices go years into the future.
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  31. All losses, including dead, POWs, wounded etc.
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  32. I doubt Ukraine will hold Lyman for long - as soon as Russia has the man power they will re-take it. But I expect Russia to be on the back foot for the next few weeks. In a month or so situation should stabilize.
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  33. Russia wants to cut off Ukies from the seas. Make non viable state that will be a huge problem for EU. Two targets, one stone.
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  34.  @StrawHat83  Nah, they can move out. Notice that neither side had many surrenders and Russians are very careful not to get surrounded. Besides, I doubt there are any Russian forces in Izium. Maybe a battalion or two.
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  35.  @daffyduck780  The war was started by Russia to make it not possible for Ukraine to join NATO. So I look at the chances of Ukraine joining NATO in the next 50 years as ... pretty much zero. This is from quite possible before the war. The main condition to end the war is NO NATO. Thus the war will not end till Ukraine has NATO ambitions. It is very stupid for anyone in Ukraine to fight a war to join NATO. They are fighting for US interests, not their own. What was wrong with being neutral - no war, land back. Can join EU. Can trade with Russia. What is this "great value of NATO".
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  36. Oczywiscie ze nie wazne - liczy sie tylko USA. Demokracja ma byc w USA (przynajmniej to co niby nia jest) a reszta swiata - kogo to obchodzi - byle by USD byl na topie.
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  37. So far not likely. We see what mobilization does. And what US weapons are shipped. If US escalates Russia may utilize nukes to equalize.
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  38. Hmm, I am unsure about mobilization - especially open one - its a very risky move politically. It would not be some "magical" wand - troops would need time to be assembled, moved to the front etc. It would take at least a month I think to see actual results of such move. So by August we would see say extra 100 BTGs. Maybe more immediate result of a declaration of war would be use of BTGs with conscripts that already exist. Again, very shaky stuff.
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  39.  @Crosley-1520  LOL!
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  40. Mines vs inflatable boats?
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  41. Depends on Zielinski.
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  42. F16s will not be used for air defense as they have limited time in the air and have to land. This is why you need static air defenses VS. Missiles. Also too few F16s. They can try to intercept some cruise missiles but other types not possible. Small drones are to cheap to engage with a fighter.
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  43.  @octowuss1888  Nah, by March or April they will retake all the land they just lost (and more they will loose) and all UA channels will be heavy in cope mode.
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  44. Seems unlikely - maybe in January.
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  45. Its an orderly withdrawal so no big losses in equipment. Maybe some march losses. They need to shorten the front line due to number of troops available. If they did not then UA forces would do catastrophic break through & force non orderly retreat. At some point front will stabilize and then a bit later Russia will be able to go onto counter offensive.
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  46. Ukrainians are experts at running away using fields.
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  47. Colonial wars would involve racial component, here Russians think Ukrainians are their brothers not some inferior slaves.
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  48. No, what I can see is there are NO RUSSINAS at all in that area. None. In Kherson there were actual troops. Here, nothing. It feels Russians have simply... moved out and only screening force of DPR forces is here. Maybe few 1000s troops for the whole area - whole 1/2 of Kharkiv.
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  49. This is a joke. Even if by some strange luck Ukraine can fight in 2025 what about 2026?
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  50.  @Ragnovlod  They are essentially the same people so the fight is even if all other things were even. But they are not. Russians have heavy advantage in almost every aspect & have far lesser goals which will mean their victory.
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