Comments by "John Adam" (@johnadam2885) on "Sky News"
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Decisive months of battle ahead which will lead only to Russian gains. Russia has the initiative, Ukraine has lost too many soliders in Soledar and Bakhmut. Soledar has fallen, Bakhmut is encircled. Even the Americans are advising the Ukrainians to pull out of Bakhmut - so they have some save troops left for American training ! Once Bakhmut falls, Donbass will be completed with the capture of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Then the Russians will be ready to move to central Ukraine.
This expert is trying to live off the past, he recounts Russia did not succeed in capturing Kiev, he claims Donbass front has remained static etc. We can see the effort to gloss over and try to present a brave face for the west. Russia has neutralised the Himar led Kherson offensive. Zelensky's tall talk of taking Crimea by last December was just vain boasting.
Russia on the other hand can mount a major offensive. For Ukraine, this time round, it will be difficult to defend. Ukrainians forces have been attritioned and depleted in the Donbass, so they are not in a position of mounting a significant counter offensive. The paltry western tanks will make as much difference as the Himars. The west is staring at the writing on the wall, but cannot admit it. Ukraine cannot push back Russia the second time, Russia will prevail.
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Ukraine was assured it would be independent only if it gave up nuclear weapons. It had no choice. If it did not want to give up, it would have remained part of Russia. Get it ? No point claiming if only Ukraine had not given up nukes....
Next, the Budapest Memorandum did not foresee that one signatory, the US, would engineer a coup in Ukraine in 2014 and usher in a govt. that would conspire with the US to threaten Russia with NATO bases. The Budapest Memorandum says in case of any disputes on security, all four parties would have meetings to resolve it through negotiations. When Putin asked for security negotiations in 2021 for Russia, Biden declined. Hence, the US, UK, Ukraine reneged on the the Budapest Memorandum. The US thought Ukraine could defeat Russia by arming it. By 2024, it became clear that Ukraine had lost, so the US would like to go back to negotiations. Since the US, UK and Ukraine spurned negotiations to avert war in Dec. 2021, it follows any future negotiations will be on Russian terms. Those terms are : Ukraine has to cede what it has lost AND it cannot be in NATO. There can be no NATO or EU peacekeepers in Ukraine, as they took part in the war against Russia. If Ukraine does not accept, Russia will not negotiate and the war continues. Get it ?
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