Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. No, more likely his father had a crew cut.
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  2. There is absolutely no question in my mind that this will end catastrophically for China. It is not a robust Western society. China is a fragile dictatorship, no rule of law, corruption of historic proportions, has the largest debt bubbles in history, has insane military ambitions, a demographic problem the scale of which has never seen in history, an uneducated population, has to import the vast majority of its raw materials, energy and food, has enemies on all sides due to it bullying every single neighbour and to top it off an utterly incompetent government. They are not going to get a recession and stagnation.
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  3. If just one ship is sunk then insurance will stop and ships will not come. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  4. ​ @dingoeatswolf3663  Where are you talking about? China or USA? Thanks.
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  5.  @dingoeatswolf3663  Ok. Thanks. 👍
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  6.  @sernik_z_rodzynkami  Wow. Interesting. So China tries to conceal their tariffs. Thanks. 👍
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  7.  @ivandjartovski3578  What is roadsx???
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  8. 🤫
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  9. He probably just needs a good microphone.
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  10. No. Slaves.
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  11. Europe, and I'm including the UK, will eventually have to wake up, get their fingers out and actually do something about energy. We have lots of options, including nuclear, coal, gas (the Groningen fields and onshore UK are currently banned 🤦) and also war. Yes, WAR. Europe may have to put troops on the front lines in Ukraine and end the war. Russia would run out of options fast. Italy and France may have to take the gloves off and go back into North Africa. If they were to fight like their forefathers then they would succeed. France is a nuclear power. The world has changed and eventually the civilised rulebooks will probably have to be torn up, like it or not. WAKE UP! 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  12. Wow. I told the truth and my comment is still there! 🤯
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  13. ​@georgej8647 India will continue to import Australian coal and any other raw material which it needs.
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  14. Probably ⅕, but it's very unclear.
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  15. Peter what would scare the US? Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon? Pakistan selling its nukes to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and/or Iran? A war with China (even a declining China)? Even an incredibly economically weak country like North Korea is a credible treat to the western seaboard of the US (and if it's not now it will be very soon). Also although you have stated that the future of the USA is to use Mexican labour, how could that be achieved? Mexico is a incredibly criminalised and dysfunctional nation which would have to be fixed in order for that to be possible. All the best.
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  16. Thanks everyone! I've got some reading to do. 👍
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  17.  @Rob-me8vp  Yes, absolutely. Russia is an imperial power with very little geographic security currently. Under the Soviets they had that security and lost it with the fall of Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. Putin has stated that he wants that security back. If the United States gives up on Ukraine and NATO then Putin stands a pretty good chance of fracturing European alliances and getting what he wants. But it isn't just Putin, this is the core strategy of Russia. Expand until they reach a defendable position. Geographically Russia is in a very poor position currently and that is why they are in Ukraine.
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  18. If Putin tried to launch even just one tactical nuclear missile, the US (and probably the UK and France and possibly even China) would know everything about it and we would see a much heightened response from the West to say the least. Such a response would not be able to be hidden from the media. We probably wouldn't know exactly what was going on, but we would know that something was going on. So, the West isn't freaking out because Russia hasn't pushed any buttons. End of story.
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  19.  @jimthain8777  My comment was yet again deleted. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  20. ​ @lutherblissett9070 How is that going to improve productivity or reduce high labour costs? That sounds like a solution for communists. Oh wait a minute. 😂
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  21. ​ @hughjass1044  Stop kidding yourself. He meant to insult those that refuse to pay him for his speculation. This lines up exactly with his character.
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  22. I suspect that offshore California could have significant results.
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  23. Namibia? Interesting. Onshore or offshore do you know?
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  24. No.
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  25.  @prst99  There's been a lot of talk that this is the end of the US$ because they "weaponized" it. I call that BS. If you invade a country, you face international consequences and that includes financial. Simple. I think that this will become much more common in future. All the best.
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  26.  @bighands69  Unfortunately if North Korea ever did start anything it's incredible number of fortified artillery would devastate Seoul and everywhere near the border. It is just wishful thinking to write off the nuclear threat and chemical artillery rounds would be very effective against the cities in range. True the North wouldn't stand a chance of an actual invasion, but South Korea would be destroyed. Any war would rapidly escalate and would certainly be a death sentence for almost everyone in North Korea which they know. China would also be extraordinarily angry at them for disrupting the balance of power and forcing the US to become directly involved in the region. Remember the Korean War was not good for China. Therein lies the deterrence, so let us hope that it remains effective.
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  27.  @prst99  Do you think that Western leaders have ever cared about South Africa? It has virtually zero geopolitical significance to the world apart from being a supplier of some minerals which they continue to do despite the country's incredible recent decline. There is a huge difference between what politicians say and do.
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  28. I used to know someone who did his national service in the 50s in the UK. He was sent to the Isle of Wight and was only allowed to communicate in Russian for 18 months, if I recall correctly. He loved it. One of the good stories about the Cold War. All the best.
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  29. ​ @obcane3072 No, they use different rail cars.
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  30. A very good point. Military transport probably gets priority too.
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  31. Yea as a British I completely agree. The UK and the Netherlands could get a lot more out of the North Sea, but won't. In fact all of UK waters require re-investigation, but that's not going to happen under our crazy current government. I don't know if Irish waters have ever been explored. I'm sure that the Baltic would yield something and the same goes for the Western Mediterranean. Most of these locations are offshore and so exploration and development are price dependent. In fact until the EU reverses its green agenda no company will ever investigate anything - it's insanity. Libya is definitely a possibility, but I suspect that multiple European countries would have to collaborate - probably France and Italy (who would benefit the most) with the UK possibly wanting in on the action (relations between the UK and mainland Europe would have to improve significantly though), but things would have to get VERY bad for Europe for an invasion/liberation to be realistic. This would in my opinion be quite doable IMHO. Europe is shifting to the right politically and I see Germany in decline which has its advantages. Don't forget that Azerbaijan is likely going to be an increasing way for Russia to launder its gas going to Europe too. More nuclear energy would be great for everyone but France and remember that Europe still has vast coal reserves. If coal is good enough for china and India then it should be ok for Europe. It's all fun and games. All the best.
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  32. Americans don't live next door to Russia (I know, I know, but Russians can't drive a tank to Alaska), like the Baltic Free States. The closer you are to Russia, the more you realise that Russia is the enemy.
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  33. Next we'll be telling our kids to eat their bogies (boogers) up before they get their dessert! 🤢
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  34. Na, just fertilizer. 😂
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  35. Weed. He'll probably be surprised when he gets lung cancer and says "But I don't smoke!"
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  36.  @jagsfanrick  You should examine the budget put out by the Russian Government. Comparing January 2022 with January 2023 (remember this is before the EU ban on buying Russian crude oil came into effect) total government income was down 38% and government expenses were up 58%. The figures for March will be much worse. If oil prices do spike then Russia has no way of profiting from that anymore with the price caps in place. Putin just didn't do his homework before commencing on his little "special operation" and instead he got a special disaster for Russia. 🌻💀🌻 Take a look for yourself at the Russian Finance Ministry - just Google it. Sometimes no matter how well you roll the dice, the house always wins. 🤣 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  37. + plenty of energy, raw materials, rich, rule of law - bad neighbours, poor choice of immigrants ? climate change (let's face it no one knows)
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  38. Yeah, I suspect that George nailed it. Trump knew Nixon and respects what he did with China. I had a thought about Tulsi Gabbard. If the administration had actual evidence of connections to Moscow then rather than keeping her out, instead appoint her, restrict what she gets access to and then use her to feed Moscow a narrative. Alternatively I've been watching too many Cold War spy films.
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  39. Yes it's a religious conflict. No they are ethnically different.
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  40. ​ @Doochos 😂
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  41. Sorry, but no. The West has bigger concerns, namely stopping Russian expansion West and the coming war with China. These countries are buffer states between Russia, Turkey and Iran. They also sit at the border between two religions Christians to the north and Muslims to the south and this is the real problem with this region and one which has absolutely no solution ever unless you are utterly naïve. The best outcome may be for the people of Nagorno Karabkh (sp?) to flee to Armenia before the Azeris wipe them out. Currently the Azeris will allow that. This is undoubtedly a terrible thing for the people involved, but better than being dead. The prospect of any Armenians being allowed to live peacefully in Azerbaijan is unlikely and will probably trend to zero as time moves on. There's a good reason that so many Armenians have fled to the West over time. As for Armenia and Georgia in the long run they need a security guarantor and the only one who that I can see willing to be that is Russia, however Russia is currently busy. It's a very, very difficult place to live. Arguably the peoples of the region were better off under the Soviets and the Soviets were monsters. Sadly if I lived there I would leave and try to get to the West and a better life. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  42.  @k0zzu21  Almost all of the uranium enrichment happens in Russia. The West has really dropped the ball with enrichment and must start building facilities now.
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  43. Bingo. We have a winner. 😵‍💫
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  44. ​ @hamchannell At 3 hours it's 41K. She's a star! 🤩
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  45. Obama was a truly terrible world leader, yet everyone loved him because of... 🤷🏾‍♂️
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  46. From a ruthlessly cynical perspective the West is providing just enough military equipment to one former member of the Soviet Union (Ukraine) to allow them to slowly grind down another former member of the Soviet Union (Russia and perhaps Belarus), while inflicting the maximum amount of damage to its capacity to wage future wars. Ukrainian casualties and the time it takes to liberate territory given this outlook are irrelevant as long as the West is able to convince Ukraine that the West is helping. The West will quietly bear a grudge against those who seek to destroy us with nuclear weapons, such as Russia. China had better watch out. War is hell. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  47.  @QuizmasterLaw  True. France always wants to be the grand heroic peace maker. Germany thinks more trade = less war, due to selective memory loss (peak trade between France and Germany before WW2 was just before the panzers rolled in). They are still searching for their balls 70 years after the US castrated them.
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  48.  @ClockworksOfGL  And I understand why the US is doing this: you have to be careful when fighting the nuclear armed bear. But it must be so frustrating for the Ukrainians (it certainly is for me) not to take the fight to the enemy. Teams could go into Russia and burn factories and refineries to the ground easily. At the end of WW2 the British saved the Ukrainian SS division from deportation back to the Ukraine and instead took them as immigrants into the UK in absolute secrecy (it only came out recently). Why would they welcome them? Because they could pass as Russians better than any one else. The Cold War was a harsh mistress. Fast forward to today, who could still pass as Russian the easiest of any other people? Still the Ukrainians. Yet why aren't they wreaking havoc in Mother Russia? Because the US has told them not to probably (yet, anyway). Very frustrating, but you have to box clever to win. All the best.
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  49. I would tend to agree.
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  50. India is intentionally focused inward and they are very protectionist. This strategy serves India best. Also their demographics are also prophetically showing weakness.
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