Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1.  @wizard0313  Thanks for your reply. I am genuinely happy for people to use Patreon and get paid for what they do. I don't think that Patreon is insulting. You may not be aware that in the video when he launched Patreon he called everyone who wouldn't/couldn't subscribe to his Patreon as (and this is his word) "cheap". This insult has mildly irritated me and confirmed in my mind that we are listening to someone who has an unpleasant character, but I should probably let it go as it's a waste of my time. You're quite right that his content is not at all time sensitive and I am fine to wait a week for it. I hope that you have a great weekend Wiz. 👍
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  2. ​ @hosmerhomeboy Really? None? What did your first computer cost and what does one with equivalent performance cost now? In the sixties a first handheld calculator cost $100, now a scientific calculator costs $5. Unless you mean inflation based on an economist's definition (in which case you should reexamine the data), I suggest that you look at each product separately as we all experience increases and decreases in prices of items concurrently. All the best.
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  3. Yup, add to that a 5 to 10 year long recession/depression and some manufacturers (Tesla?) will go belly up. It's going to be unbelievable. Today most people who are union members in auto manufacturing are just trying to get by and unfortunately probably not able to predict even the near future. During the great depression many people accepted wage cuts just to keep their jobs. I wonder if workers will be smart enough to do the same next time. Time will tell.
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  4. The sun is going to rise tomorrow.
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  5. Just as well that we are heading into a worldwide recession/depression, because it gives the West time to reorientate our manufacturing, particularly heavy manufacturing. I can see a lot of green issues being pushed pack on, despite the public's current enthusiasm, due to these industries being vital for our economic survival. I realise that this statement doesn't sit well with many, but along with nuclear energy we will be forced to embrace them. Just my 2¢. All the best everyone.
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  6.  @NyalBurns  The Japanese seem happy. 👍
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  7. That's not going to happen. Let's get real. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  8. Quisling. 😐
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  9. Interesting. That explains a lot. Thanks.
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  10. Yeah, until the Republican party gets itself a decent candidate and then Trump's appeal will slowly fade to nothing... at... all. Whomp, whomp.
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  11. What could go wrong? 🤣
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  12. 100%
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  13.  @bighands69  Or even India.
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  14. I don't have high hopes for Italy. 😞
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  15. If anything in a post American world (But is the USA really ready to give up that power? I kinda doubt it.) I see the UK being able to hold on to the Falklands more easily. In the event of another conflict the UK would be able to take the gloves off and use its submarines. I'm pretty sure that some unrestricted submarine warfare against Argentina would bring any conflict to an end rapidly (and even force Argentina to leave the Falklands in the unlikely scenario that they took them again) without aircraft carriers or American support. Since the end of WW2 the secondary nations like the UK haven't faught an "anything goes" war where the enemies commerce, infrastructure and population are all legitimate targets and hence most people think that such a war would be impossible today. I believe that especially if the US is no longer a security guarantor that historically brutal wars will return with a vengeance. The dream of American isolationism has always been an unrealistic dream and probably an domestic political tool which Zeihan seems to have fallen for to a degree. I agree that the USA is currently in one of its navel gazing phases when it disengages somewhat, but sooner or later it will be forced to sober up and realise that it actually needs the rest of the world. The pendulum swung too far towards globalization, next it will swing too far in the opposite direction, ad infinitum. All the best.
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  16. ​ @vicomte5047  Yes. This is exactly what Peter meant and this strategy would have merit from the Russian perspective. Russia would wait until there are weak leaders in NATO. The solution is for the front line, in this case Poland, Ukraine and Sweden to have their own nuclear weapons, in which case that type of threat would (how do I phrase this in order not to get my comment deleted?) evoke an immediate and decisive response. 😉
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  17. 🤣👍
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  18. ​ @CESmith  I find that hard to believe. 😐 China however has subsided shipping costs to the West by 100% for many years.
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  19. ​ @bcanuck US refiners have been resisting updating their refineries so that they can take US crude and do without importing crude for too long. This may be a bit of a wake up call for them.
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  20. If the US becomes seriously disinterested in North Africa, and I suspect that they will in time, then I really wouldn't be surprised if France went after Algeria and Tunisia again. Morocco and Libya pose no threat and the Sahara is like a sea and can be patrolled by drones. France would get oil and gas by pipeline which it needs and it would also secure the Western Mediterranean. The immigrant problem could then be controlled. It makes a lot of sense. The same goes for Italy taking back Libya, but Egyptian proximity poses a problem, but I think that Egypt is screwed if it doesn't expand. I suspect that it would be worth the gamble for Italy and France would likely assist them. An alliance between France and Italy may be needed to counter Turkey. I don't think that Spain would be interested, or even capable of taking Morocco, though I could be wrong. I'm very unsure about Spain's future - could it become a forgotten backwater? Very hard to say. France must first fix it's domestic problems with it's fractured population, though France could be Machiavellian and use a war in Algeria could get rid of people. It then needs to be an incredibly ruthless colonizer, much like Russia and not be bothered by human rights and rule with an iron fist, which reminds me of the pre-19th Century world. I wouldn't be surprised to see France and Italy back in North Africa in my lifetime. Time will tell as things are bound to happen which are unforeseen. Raw geopolitics is a really cutthroat and dirty business. The US world order was objectively a force for good. All the best.
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  21. Politics
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  22. Indonesia and the Philippines have been extremely promising for decades, but it never happened for political/closed market and corruption problems which have constantly been downplayed. I hope that they overcome it this time.
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  23. This sounds like a great series Peter. Thank you and have a wonderful Christmas. ❤️ God bless and greetings from bonnie Scotland. 🇬🇧
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  24. I don't think that Russia cares. They are busy losing a war in Ukraine. 🤣 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  25.  @Xaran001  I beg to differ. The Mediterranean Sea will be ruled by NATO as will the North Atlantic. The Pacific is huge. Japan will secure its own trade routes. The US will probably secure trade with Australia. The Indian Ocean is where the US Navy is pulling out first. There are virtually no alliances between the countries that use that region. That is where I see trouble first. Will this hurt the US? Zeihan thinks not, I'm not so sure. As Chinese manufacturing diminishes, so too will trade with Europe. The Indian Ocean will be a test-bed. Saudi Arabia has been borderline hostile to the US lately, which is a dumb move. Iran and Saudi Arabia are regional rivals. Eventually Saudi Arabia will probably need assistance. The US may come back or they may be on their own. Their carriers will mean that they can sail back anytime and devastate an opponent, leave and return any time they want. The Middle East will revert to an incredible mess. Everyone hates their neighbours. They have oil, but can't feed themselves. You can't eat oil. The US is sick of them. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  26. ​ @Girtuczi Yes. An accident at Zaporozhye nuclear power plant by "it wasn't us, honestly" Russia would most likely affect Turkey. That could really piss off the Turks and close the Dardanelle Straight to Russian traffic for good.
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  27. Chinese EVs don't need to be equal to Western EVs though. All cars are currently too expensive and Chinese EVs are more affordable because their labour cost is lower. If their labour costs go up then China will devalue their currency. So in the next decade almost all cars will be produced in China because they have a structural advantage. The reason why China wants us to buy their products is that the CCP fears only one thing - the Chinese people, so they will not allow high unemployment. Also if our society will stop functioning because we can't make anything anymore then China has political influence over us. What you say would be correct if all transactions were happening inside a single country. You've heard of "War is politics by other means"? Well, tariffs are a political tool too.
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  28.  @protorhinocerator142  Yup, they both have advantages and disadvantages. Modern coal power plants with scrubbers pollute far, far less than older technology if as I do, you don't count CO2 as as a problem. If you have very large reserves of extremely high quality coal then it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to ignore it.
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  29.  @Neon-Covenanter  Fair enough. Look after yourself man. 👍 Greetings from Scotland. 🇬🇧
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  30. He's not good with people. I think that technically it is called arrogance.
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  31.  @paulklee5790  Un-freaking-believable! 🤯 I suppose that they had to keep the functional alcoholics from going through withdrawal. I hadn't heard that one. 🤣👍
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  32. ​ @robkafczyk2752  It must be tough to be ilitterratte. 🤣
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  33.  @billmiddlebrook6477  Oh no... the illiterati! 😁
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  34. Done.
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  35.  @LRRPFco52  Yes, I'm sure that the French will be at the forefront of change in Europe. 👍
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  36. Spot on. Terrible video. 👎👎
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  37. USE AN EXTERNAL MICROPHONE! 🎤
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  38.  @aaronrandolph261  I wouldn't say fine.
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  39. If I recall correctly, when asked about the Federal Debt I think that he said that he wasn't currently worried about it and that it would have to be 3 or 4 times the current level to be concerned. In a different interview he also said that in the event of a nuclear war (with China? whatever, the maths works with any nuclear war) US cities would get hit and the cost of rebuilding ONE would be $5 trillion. I'm sorry that I can't remember the specific interviews which he said this, but it was pretty recent and perhaps someone else can fill in the specifics. I saw them here on YouTube. I hope that this helps. All the best.
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  40. Perhaps Guyana could do some lateral drilling to the west! 😁👍
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  41. Ok. Now take your meds.
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  42.  @StereoSpace  The Ukraine doesn't need to shoot down any Russian missiles to defeat Russia though. The missiles strikes are making the Ukrainian people suffer for the internal politics of Russia and will not influence the outcome of the war which will be won on the battlefield.
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  43. IMHO Peter got everything right here and I think that doesn't happen often when he is talking about economics. However he missed something... something really big. Demographics dictate that the lack of demand caused by the boomers retiring and transferring their savings from stocks to bonds is going to hugely affect the economy. They do seem to be hanging on to their stocks for longer than anticipated, but they will eventually or they will die and pass on their savings and the next generation will buy houses probably. The net effect of this and also the very sharp contraction of the money supply in the US will be to cause a recession likely within the next two years. House prices will fall, stocks will fall, bonds will rise, the USD will rise and people will lose their jobs. If you're lucky and have an indispensable job you will be laughing as you'll be able to lock in a very low rate for a home. If not you could be worried about getting your next meal. Buckle up, it's going to be a very rough ride. Good luck.
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  44. ​ @Rob_F8F I have heard it speculated that if Japan wanted nuclear weapons then it would only take them a year to build one and the ballistic missile to deliver it (assuming that they don't already have a nuclear weapon, which I personally doubt). South Korea would also be capable of building a nuclear weapon, but it would take a bit longer, perhaps two years, although they do not have ballistic missile technology (yet/that we know of). Underestimating these two nations could be fatal. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  45. ​ @edratcliff5873 Soon being in China will be very bad for your health, you may want to think about leaving - while you can.
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  46. ​ @revelationsix Pipeline pumping stations aren't so easy to repair so also a good target.
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  47. Antarctica! 😂
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  48. You should talk with more non Germans. To me this is incredibly plausible and likely.
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  49. "The Alcoholic Medvedev" as Operator Starsky likes to call him. 🤣🤡 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  50.  @out_spocken  Because he irritates me.
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