Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1.  @wizard0313  So he earns about $45k from YouTube. Which is great for a side hustle. Good on him. He then insults us to try and get more money from us. Can you honestly say that this is a good way to treat people? I'm genuinely interested in hearing your answer. I have not unsubscribed and never said that I will simply because I find his commentary useful. The price I pay for that is to watch advertising and be insulted.
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  2. ​ @thedadstale Agreed. Winters in the UK have been consistently milder for decades. This winter was not an aberration, rather probably the norm.
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  3. Very true. It was a little bit more complicated than that, but that was probably the primary reason. 👍 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  4. ​ @uuclmusic2711 I'd happily pronounce Xi "Panda bear" name wrong just to annoy, because I don't respect that genocidal murderer one iota. 🤬
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  5. I don't think that pronouncing your enemy's name correctly is important.
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  6. I'm not as worried about deflation as Zeihan. I think that deflation is also self correcting, just on a longer time frame. He talks about how the only thing that really saved the world from the deflation of the Great Depression was the Second World War, but I think that is no coincidence. War is a political tool to combat deflation. In democracies people vote in extreme parties, either the hard left, the Communists, or the hard right and both eventually choose war to stay in power. What I worry about is that the USA, indeed the entire West has accumulated a wartime debt in a time of peace. Deflation is absolutely coming. We haven't had as large a contraction in the money supply since 1929, so we're going to have a depression. As Steve Hanke says "It's baked into the cards." If government debt to GDP rises to over 100% then that debt can only be inflated away (unless they default). Inflation is in reality just the devaluation of the currency. Inflation is actually easy to achieve, as a government only has to continue to pay government employees more. The reason that Japan didn't do this was a choice - a very bad choice as is evident by their demographic decline. I suspect that the reason that they did not was that Japan is a massive lender to Asia. They're now seeing some inflation probably because they see a depression coming and will not be able to lend. Back to high government debt in the West. The reason that this is a problem is that it positions the government poorly. How does it create inflation when the economy is contracting with incredible force? It can't expand the state's percentage of GDP if, as now, that percentage in the West is already at record levels. It can't afford to go to war. It's hands are tied and countering extreme deflationary forces becomes extremely difficult without altering the society. The West is in a very bad situation, but at least we're not the rest of the world! Wow, I went on forever. All the best everyone.
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  7. Correct on both counts. 👎👎
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  8. Isn't. 😂
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  9.  @ChucksSEADnDEAD  Correct.
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  10. ​ @ajr1775  And at one point were rivaling France for having short lasting governments. ❤️🇮🇹❤️🇫🇷 🤣 As a Brit I can say that since Truss set our record. 😂 🇬🇧
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  11. ​ @DuelyusSeazer Ukraine won't accept a negotiated peace now. Ukraine has a good chance of defeating Russia on the field of battle. After that Ukraine can negotiate from a position of strength. 💪 A better question IMHO is: If Russia knows it can't beat Ukraine and a LOT of Russian troops are going to be trapped in Crimea, then why isn't Russia pulling their troops out of Crimea? I think that the answer is that Russians are incompetent. 🇷🇺🤡 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  12.  @thedadstale  Electricity prices are capped for individuals, not for companies.
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  13. ​ @Samir-oe7zf Fear sells.
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  14.  @kjubone26  I meant is Slovakia a net contributor to the EU or a net beneficiary.
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  15.  @seriouslyyoujest1771  The FSB had a long term project to convince the German public that nuclear energy was incredibly dangerous, because Russia wanted to sell them oil and gas. It worked.
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  16. His broad geopolitical and demographic insights are excellent, but his short term economic comments have been appalling IMHO.
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  17. Why?
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  18. ​ @curiositycloset2359 Agreed 100%.
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  19. Much of the instability of the Balkans to this day can be attributed to the Ottoman occupation of the region. The religious persecution of Christians and practically forced Islamisation of communities there have left wounds which will likely never heal. Zeihan's ignorance on the matter is truly stunning.
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  20. Really! 🤦 🤣👍
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  21. ​ @davidhowse884  Exactly. Poland, Sweden and Ukraine.
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  22. Very true words. India knows the problems you describe all too well sadly. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  23. He's NOT a professor.
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  24. Exactly. Europe has the capacity and capability to re-industrialise, but simply lacks the will - it's almost like a death cult. It's mind blowing how everything that was easily possible in the 60s is now utterly impossible. What happened? Maybe it's demographics? Young people are optimistic, but if there are too many old people a society becomes pessimistic? Who knows, but one thing is for sure: it has to change and fast.
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  25.  @wolfgangpreier9160  The difference that the sanctions make is that very little of the money gets back to Russia. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  26. ​ @universauniversisveritas Unfortunately Russia will not stop even if it is resoundingly defeated IMHO. Why change the habits of the last 400 or so years. 😢 They're barbarians. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  27. ​ @Munin497 With any luck! 😂 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  28. Maybe that's why Russia was so upset about the plan to put Patriot missiles in Poland. A nuke is no good if you can shoot the missile down. Also I suspect that many Russian nukes simply won't work because they probably haven't been maintained enough. I believe that each one needs to be rebuilt regularly (maybe every 10 years?). Do you think that the Russians actually do this? I don't. All the best. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  29. Fear sells.
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  30. No, not at all.
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  31. Does the wind blow all the time?
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  32. I suspect that India would act if the Chinese entered the Indian Ocean (and the US too). In that case my money would definitely be on India. If China could move forces into the Arabian peninsula in quantities large enough to guarantee Saudi security, then China could threaten world oil flows. Even the European maritime nations wouldn't tolerate that! Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  33. Yea, Trump spouting how he would leave NATO, yet wanting a conflict with China. 🤦
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  34.  @jager6863  From what I know Australian military procurement is a farcical disgrace and must change. I agree that Australia should get boats from the US and also that most of the maintenance can be done overseas, but when things get bad in the Pacific then Australia will find the budget for at least four and their crews. The current military budgets of 2% of GDP are historically tiny and are bound to rise by several fold in the coming years. We have a peace mentality towards defense spending which can change on a dime, just ask any Ukrainian. One thing is for sure and that is that the situation with China will eventually get very messy indeed. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  35. Gabriel, a couple of hard winters with people going cold will focus German minds and help them make decisions based on reality and not wishes.
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  36.  @robertj.thirlby8166  I'm not fond of any politician, but Trump was 100% correct on that one.
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  37. They would have to grow a pair first.
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  38. It depends entirely on how often the batteries need replacing and how much that costs. An ICE vehicle doesn't need to replace the fuel tank... ever. Currently there is no question that batteries are too expensive to replace. Also, all EV makers say that their batteries last longer than they actually do and they simply can't be trusted whatsoever. Still, I doubt that EVs will ever be cheaper than ICE vehicles if actually comparing like for like.
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  39. Good things come to those who wait. Don't fall for FOMO. Be patient, as far as housing is concerned you only need to get one great deal in your lifetime and you are set. You have an indispensable job, so when a recession comes (and boy it will) you will be able to buy and lock in a great deal. Focus on saving and improving your credit score for now. Good luck. 🤞
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  40. 🤫
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  41.  @Corny80  🤣
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  42. We'll need popcorn. Lots of popcorn! 🤣
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  43. You answered your own question. There's too many spongers. If you want to protect your shipping you need to build a navy.
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  44.  @Kohagaan  Fantastic news! 👍👍
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  45.  @Kohagaan  🤞
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  46. Absolutely. Pumps and especially compressors are complex machines with long lead times. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
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  47. It doesn't really affect the USA at all. But they're a step away from genocide and that is hard to watch.
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  48. To build it, absolutely.
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  49. Well said. The EU has had massive mission creep. Also I am sure that we are heading towards a global recession/depression soon, if we're not there already. Given the coming economic nightmare then Italy, and perhaps others, may decide to leave, because Italy will be in a huge mess. There may be too deep a divide between northern and southern Europe and also between eastern and western Europe to survive another 2008 Financial Crisis X 1.5 to 2. Scary.
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  50. They will emigrate as much of their companies and people to the USA where inputs are all cheaper.
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